Conservapedia:Unofficial 2020 Senate predictions
With the 2020 U.S. Senate elections approaching, this project page is a list of predictions made by Conservapedia editors to provide a helpful insight on the background of the elections, taking into account of key issues and factors.
|State|| Fake News Projections
|RCP ratings||Conservapedia Prediction|
|Alabama||Lean/Likely R||Likely R||Likely R|
|Alaska||Lean R||Likely R||Safe R|
|Arizona (Special)||Lean D||Tossup||Tilt R|
|Arkansas||Safe R||Safe R||Safe R|
|Colorado||Lean D||Tossup||Tilt D|
|Delaware||Safe D||Safe D||Likely D|
|Georgia||Tilt R||Tossup||Lean R|
|Idaho||Safe R||Safe R||Safe R|
|Illinois||Safe D||Safe D||Safe D|
|Kansas||Lean/Likely R||Likely R||Likely R|
|Kentucky||Likely R||Likely R||Likely R|
|Maine||Tilt D||Tossup||Lean D|
|Massachusetts||Safe D||Safe D||Safe D|
|Michigan||Lean D||Tossup||Tilt R|
|Minnesota||Likely D||Tossup||Lean D|
|Mississippi||Safe R||Likely R||Safe R|
|Montana||Tilt R||Tossup||Lean R|
|Nebraska||Safe R||Safe R||Safe R|
|New Hampshire||Likely D||Lean D||Lean D|
|New Jersey||Safe D||Likely D||Safe D|
|New Mexico||Safe D||Lean D||Likely D|
|Texas||Lean/Likely R||Lean R||Likely R|
CP election ratings explanation
For the election ratings table to the right of the table of contents, the right column shows the Conservapedia predictions, with further specifications that ought to be noted. Unlike most election "predictions" from unreliable sources, the CP projections are less likely to change because they are based on long-term trends and relevant data rather than what certain fake "polls" may claim. For the "safe" ratings, these are all the seats that are guaranteed to favor one side and have zero chance of being vulnerable. For "likely", this refers to the Senate seats that are almost guaranteed to favor one side though have a potential to be somewhat vulnerable and result in closer margins than expected in the general election. For "lean", this refers to those that incline towards favoring one side though have a chance of ending up in close margins. "Lean/Likely" is also used for some seats that fall right between the two ratings. "Tilt" represents the seats that only slightly favor one side, where the other side would still have a strong chance of winning. "Tossup" would refer to any Senate seat that does not significantly favor any side and can result in either party (Republican or Democrat) taking victory.
Senate control analysis
An important note to firstly mention is the analysis behind the criteria for Senate control. Although Republicans currently have a majority with 53 seats, there are two RINOs that tend to dissent from their party line the most on key issues: Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. This means that the Republican Party needs at least fifty seats aside from these two senators if Donald Trump wins re-election, and fifty-one seats if the latter doesn't, as the vice president provides tie-breaking votes for the Senate if need be. Sen. Collins is up for re-election while Murkowski isn't. This means that in order for Republicans to maintain Senate control (assuming that despite the two RINO senators being unreliable, all other GOP senators will remain mostly in lockstep on votes), they cannot lose more than a net positive number of seats if Trump loses re-election (in this scenario disregarding whether Collins is re-elected or not), and cannot lose more than a net amount of one seat if Trump wins re-election (again without regards to whether Collins is re-elected/or not).
Current Scenario analysis
The Republican party currently has 53 seats in the Senate. 33 Senate Seats are up for grabs in 2020, and 2 special elections will take place. Of these 35 seats, Republicans will be defending 23 Seats, while Democrats will be defending 12 Seats. Thus, for e.g. if the Republican party hopes to advance to a 60 vote majority, it will need to win a net total of 30 seats (i.e. reverse 7 democrat seats, while retaining all its seats, for e.g.).
The Alabama Senate seat is a contest between Doug Jones and Tommy Tuberville. Jones is the incumbent but Tuberville is expected to win the election. This is due to the fact that Sen. Jones, despite representing a state Donald Trump won by over twenty-five points, voted in favor of the sham articles of impeachment brought against the president.
Jones won election as a Democrat to the United States Senate in the 2017 Senate special election following the resignation of then-longtime incumbent Jeff Sessions to become United States Attorney General. The establishment-backed Luther Strange was initially appointed to replace Sessions, but finished second place in the Republican primary and lost in the runoff to his much more conservative and anti-establishment challenger Roy Moore. After Moore faced allegations of sexual misconduct that he firmly stood against, his own party's establishment ganged up on him, with some RINOs such as Jeff Flake even endorsing and donating to Jones.
Every election rating and poll conducted for the general election so far has shown that Tuberville is inclined to win the general election over Sen. Jones.
In Alaska, one term Republican Dan Sullivan is running for re-election. The incumbent is being challenged by independent candidate Al Gross.
Sullivan won election to the U.S. Senate in the 2014 Midterms, defeating Democrat then-incumbent Mark Begich during a nationwide red wave after attacking him over left-wing partisanship. Begich was elected to the Senate in 2008, defeating longtime Republican then-incumbent Ted Stevens after the latter faced charges marked by prosecutorial misconduct.
While Alaska is generally considered a red state, the race may potentially become closer than expected due to Sullivan's reputation as establishment-leaning in addition to Gross running as a registered Independent. Despite the latter's self-portrayal as being "independent", Gross is backed by the Democrat establishment and said his values "are to the left".
The Arizona Senate election is a contest between Martha McSally and Mark Kelly. Conservapedia predicts Martha McSally will very narrowly beat Mark Kelly for the seat. Despite polling that consistently shows Kelly up in a state whose changing demographics increasingly favor Democrats, it's important to note that nearly all are flawed, having improperly weighed and/or skewed samples. An analysis here of a Civiqs/Daily Kos poll found that after properly weighing the samples by party registration, Kelly's lead over McSally was cut roughly in half. Another examination here of a poll conducted in an extremely poor manner showed that those concluding in Democrat leads in double digits always contain major flaws, in that being that the polling company is sourced in the United Kingdom, in which case is a voter suppression attempt from an influence in the form of foreign election interference to boost Democrats. An analysis of a CBS poll in mid-July here showed that after properly weighing poor sample figures, McSally was leading Kelly by one point in a likely dead heat rather than losing by four points.
While Arizona has traditionally been a red state favoring Republicans by handy margins, it has since 2016 become a swing state due to demographic changes resulting out of illegal immigration (given Arizona being a state bordering Mexico) in addition to carpetbagging by liberals from states such as California and New York who may tend to move into inner cities such as Phoenix and Tucson. The Democrat establishment has heavily backed Kelly, with him having consistently out-raised McSally as leftists are desperate to flip the Senate in the Democrats' favor.
Kelly, a shill for the Democrat establishment who campaigns on a so-called "moderate" platform while admitting to favoring left-wing policies at a debate held between the two candidates on October 6, 2020, has faced numerous criticisms over his ties to the Chinese Communist Party. National security concerns remain as Kelly was on the board of a company that was directly tied to a Chinese tech company, in addition to having attended a CCP forum in 2003. Kelly has also been criticized over his liberal hypocrisy regarding the Paycheck Protection Program Sen. McSally helped secure to provide crucial aid to small businesses amidst the CCP pandemic, criticizing it yet benefiting from the loans.
McSally faced a strong primary challenger, which arguably may hurt her in the general election due to votes being siphoned away by voters who tend to buy into the mostly misleading notion of the senator being a "RINO". However, some conservatives such as Paul Gosar and Kelli Ward who previously opposed McSally in her 2018 bid now support the interim senator; Gosar predicted in early October 2020 that McSally may narrowly pull off a victory and that Donald Trump will win the state by five points in the concurrent presidential election.
The race in Arkansas is between Tom Cotton and Ricky Harrington. Conservapedia predicts that Senator Cotton will easily retain his Senate seat with a strong win, as the state is heavily Republican-favoring. No Democrat is on the ballot for the general election.
The race in Colorado is between Cory Gardner and John Hickenlooper. Gardner, having won election to the Senate in the 2014 Midterms amidst a massive red wave in addition to facing then-incumbent Democrat Mark Udall who sinked his own chances of re-election, is facing a formidable challenge from a state that has become increasingly in favor of the Democrats despite having once been Republican-leaning. While he is expected to likely outperform Donald Trump in the latter's concurrent presidential election in the state, Conservapedia expects him to likely be defeated, though an upset is not impossible. As noted by Rep. Ken Buck, accomplishments made by Gardner and Trump, saying:
|"I think [Gardner's] in a great position to win this …"|
Amidst the 2020 Leftwing insurrection where far-left mobs have attacked residents in cities such as Denver and Aurora, gun sales have soared, which may signify a hidden support base for the Republicans.
Hickenlooper, a phony "moderate" and establishment hack backed by the DSCC which quickly favored him over all other Democrat candidates after ending his 2020 presidential campaign and announcing his run for Senate, has flip-flopped over running for the position. Hickenlooper was mocked by the NRSC in addition to Gardner for having previously stated that he would not take an interest in serving as a senator, also saying that he wouldn't be "cut out" for it. He faced progressive Andrew Romanoff in the Democrat primary, who ran to the left; Romanoff won the precinct caucuses, though ultimately lost the primary by a large margin in all but one county. This was despite Hickenlooper having been investigated for an ethics violation while governor of Colorado, denied a request to dismiss such, openly defied a subpoena in early June 2020, and was ultimately fined nearly $3,000 by a state commission, the largest amount ever issued by the panel. He falsely claimed that Gardner "supports Donald Trump 100% of the time." Hickenlooper also has a history of making bigoted and otherwise bizarre statements/comments: he once introduced the lieutenant governor of Colorado as a "rising sex star" in front of elementary school kids, made an allegedly racially insensitive comment, lashed out a young constituent, said that he would back the increasingly senile and cognitively declined Joe Biden despite also believing allegations made against the former vice president by Tara Reade, made an arguably sexist remark about Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and called China a "great nation".
Hickenlooper has been referred by some as "Frackenlooper" and criticized by liberal environmentalists. This is in contrast to Gardner, who has successfully sponsored and passed the Great American Outdoors Act, with the legislation signed by President Trump to ensure permanent funding of the Land and Water Conservation Fund as a protective measure for the environment. Thus, Gardner must count on support from some liberal, anti-Trump environmentalists and conservationists in order to win re-election.
The race in Delaware is between Chris Coons and Lauren Witzke. While polling/election ratings consider the race a safe hold for Sen. Coons, the race may become closer than expected due to Witzke running on a very populist campaign, emphasizing on combating the opioid epidemic as a top priority. She has faced attacks by far-leftists, who terrorized children that were part of one of her campaign rallies.
The race in Georgia is between David Perdue and Jon Ossoff. While the state has previously been more Republican, elections in the state have become increasingly favorable for Democrats since 2016 due to affluent suburbs breaking from the Republican Party as the Democrats increasingly become the party of the rich and wealthy while the economic nationalist wing lead by Trump focuses on uplifting and bolstering the working/middle class.
Republican: Jim Risch
Democrat: Paulette Jordan
The race in Illinois is between Dick Durbin and Mark Curran.
The race in Iowa is between Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield.
The race in Kansas is between the winner between Roger Marshall and Dave Lindstrom and Barbara Bollier.
The race in Kentucky is between Mitch McConnell and Amy McGrath.
The race in Maine is between Susan Collins and Sara Gideon.
The race in Massachusetts is between Sen. Ed Markey and Kevin O'Connor.
The race in Michigan is between Gary Peters and John James.
The race in Minnesota is between Jason Lewis and Tina Smith.
The race in Mississippi is between Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy.
The race in Montana is between Steve Daines and Steve Bullock.
The race in Nebraska is between Ben Sasse and Chris Janicek.
Republican: Corky Messner
Democrat: Jeanne Shaheen
The race in New Hampshire is between Corky Messner and Jeanne Shaheen.
The race in New Jersey is between Cory Booker and Rik Mehta.
The race in New Mexico is between Ben Ray Lujan and Mark Ronchetti.
The race in North Carolina is between incumbent Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham.
The race in Oklahoma is between Jim Inhome and Abby Broyles.
The race in Oregon is between Jeff Merkley and Jo Rae Perkins.
The race in Rhode Island is between Jack Reed and Allen Waters.
The race in South Carolina is between Lindsey Graham and Jaime Harrison.
The race in South Dakota is between Mike Rounds and Dan Ahlers.
The race in Tennessee is between Bill Hagerty, Marquita Bradshaw, and Independent Candidates.
The Texas Senate seat is a contest between John Cornyn and Mary Hegar. Conservapedia predicts that Mary Hegar will go on to be defeated by John Cornyn for the Senate Seat in November.
The Virginia Senate seat is a contest between Mark Warner and Daniel Gade.
The Wyoming Senate seat is a contest between Cynthia Lummis and Merav Ben-David.
- Senate Ratings | Inside Elections
- Who wins 2020? Senate Elections Forecast - Politico
- 2020 Senate Race ratings | The Cook Political Report
- Alabama Election Results 2016
- Trump Impeachment Results: How Democrats and Republicans Voted
- Alabama Election Results: Two Republicans Advance, Democrat Wins in U.S. Senate Primaries
- Jeff Flake: 'No doubt' I'd support a Democrat over Roy Moore
- Flake donates $100 to Doug Jones campaign: 'Country over Party'
- Dan Sullivan for Senate: Second Amendment
- Dan Sullivan for Senate: Roots
- Mark Begich's Liberal Washington Friends (TV Ad 2014)
- DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race
- ‘My Values Are To The Left’: Independent Alaska Senate Candidate Tells DNC He’s With Them
- ABC News: Arizona’s Changing Demographics Helping Democrats
- Mark Kelly continues to outraise Senator McSally
- 2020 Senate Debate: Martha McSally vs Mark Kelly
- [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/13/mark_kelly_silent_on_firms_windfall_from_chinese_tech_giant.html Mark Kelly Silent on Firm's Windfall From Chinese Tech Giant]
- Arizona’s Mark Kelly Sat on Advisory Board of Company That Partnered With Chinese Tech Giant
- AZ Senate: Mark Kelly Facing Backlash for Company's Ties to China
- AZ Senate wannabe Mark Kelly’s Chinese Communist ties exposed
- For Mark Kelly, Attending Forum Hosted by CCP Was the Beginning of Lucrative Relationship with China
- Gun-Grabbing Grifter Mark Kelly Is Yet Another Democrat in Bed With the Chinese Communist Party
- Democratic candidates benefit from PPP loans they criticized
- Arizona’s Mark Kelly Slammed PPP While His Company Reaped Its Benefits
- Democrat Senate Candidates Benefited from PPP Loans While Criticizing Program
- GOP Rep. Paul Gosar: ‘Donald Trump Will Win Arizona’
- Exclusive–Ken Buck: Trump, Cory Gardner’s Record Will Lead to GOP Victory in Colorado
- Colorado gun sales remain at high volume, prompting $1.3 million request to speed up background checks
- Colorado Dems Push Back Against Hickenlooper Senate Run
- [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-hickenlooper-2020-announces-senate-run-after-dropping-out-of-white-house-race/ John Hickenlooper announces Senate run after dropping out of White House race]
- NRSC Mocks Hickenlooper for Now Running for Job He Said He Couldn't Do
- Green New Deal advocate claims win over Hickenlooper in Colorado caucuses
- Ethics Commission Denies Hickenlooper Request to Dismiss Investigation
- John Hickenlooper defies subpoena to appear for virtual hearing on ethics complaint
- Hickenlooper fined $2,750 by state ethics panel for violating gifts rule as governor
- Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO) on Attorney General Jeff Sessions' marijuana policy change (C-SPAN)
- Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump
- John Hickenlooper, Andrew Romanoff face off in 9NEWS Democratic Senate Debate
- 'He's a rising sex star': Governor's X-rated introduction for deputy at elementary school
- NRSC Condemns Hickenlooper for 'Racially Insensitive' Comment About Black Pastors
- Ok, Boomer: Hickenlooper Gets Angry With Young Constituent
- John Hickenlooper: I believe Tara Reade, but 'I still support Joe Biden'
- CO Sen: Hickenlooper Makes Demeaning Comment About Sen. Sinema After Forgetting Her Name
- Hickenlooper Calls China a ‘Great Nation’
- Stop Frackenlooper
- Liberals Slam Hickenlooper for Environmental Record
- S.3422 - Great American Outdoors Act
- Disgusting: Eggs Were Thrown at Children During Delaware Republican Rally, Democrats Silent