Conservapedia:Unofficial 2020 Senate predictions

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With the 2020 U.S. Senate elections approaching, this project page is a list of predictions made by Conservapedia editors to provide a helpful insight on the background of the elections, taking into account of key issues and factors.




State Fake News Projections
(average)
RCP ratings Conservapedia Prediction
Alabama Lean/Likely R Likely R Likely R
Alaska Lean R Likely R Safe R
Arizona (Special) Lean D Tossup Tilt R
Arkansas Safe R Safe R Safe R
Colorado Lean D Tossup Tilt D
Delaware Safe D Safe D Likely D
Georgia Tilt R Tossup Lean R
Idaho Safe R Safe R Safe R
Illinois Safe D Safe D Safe D
Iowa Tossup Tossup Lean R
Kansas Lean/Likely R Likely R Likely R
Kentucky Likely R Likely R Likely R
Maine Tilt D Tossup Lean D
Massachusetts Safe D Safe D Safe D
Michigan Lean D Tossup Tilt R
Minnesota Likely D Tossup Lean D
Mississippi Safe R Likely R Safe R
Montana Tilt R Tossup Lean R
Nebraska Safe R Safe R Safe R
New Hampshire Likely D Lean D Lean D
New Jersey Safe D Likely D Safe D
New Mexico Safe D Lean D Likely D
Texas Lean/Likely R Lean R Likely R






CP election ratings explanation

For the election ratings table to the right of the table of contents, the right column shows the Conservapedia predictions, with further specifications that ought to be noted. Unlike most election "predictions" from unreliable sources, the CP projections are less likely to change because they are based on long-term trends and relevant data rather than what certain fake "polls" may claim. For the "safe" ratings, these are all the seats that are guaranteed to favor one side and have zero chance of being vulnerable. For "likely", this refers to the Senate seats that are almost guaranteed to favor one side though have a potential to be somewhat vulnerable and result in closer margins than expected in the general election. For "lean", this refers to those that incline towards favoring one side though have a chance of ending up in close margins. "Lean/Likely" is also used for some seats that fall right between the two ratings. "Tilt" represents the seats that only slightly favor one side, where the other side would still have a strong chance of winning. "Tossup" would refer to any Senate seat that does not significantly favor any side and can result in either party (Republican or Democrat) taking victory.

Senate control analysis

An important note to firstly mention is the analysis behind the criteria for Senate control. Although Republicans currently have a majority with 53 seats, there are two RINOs that tend to dissent from their party line the most on key issues: Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. This means that the Republican Party needs at least fifty seats aside from these two senators if Donald Trump wins re-election, and fifty-one seats if the latter doesn't, as the vice president provides tie-breaking votes for the Senate if need be. Sen. Collins is up for re-election while Murkowski isn't. This means that in order for Republicans to maintain Senate control (assuming that despite the two RINO senators being unreliable, all other GOP senators will remain mostly in lockstep on votes), they cannot lose more than a net positive number of seats if Trump loses re-election (in this scenario disregarding whether Collins is re-elected or not), and cannot lose more than a net amount of one seat if Trump wins re-election (again without regards to whether Collins is re-elected/or not).

Current Scenario analysis

The Republican party currently has 53 seats in the Senate. 33 Senate Seats are up for grabs in 2020, and 2 special elections will take place. Of these 35 seats, Republicans will be defending 23 Seats, while Democrats will be defending 12 Seats.[1] Thus, for e.g. if the Republican party hopes to advance to a 60 vote majority, it will need to win a net total of 30 seats (i.e. reverse 7 democrat seats, while retaining all its seats, for e.g.).

Alabama

Democrat: Doug Jones
Republican: Tommy Tuberville

Sen. Jones is expected to lose after voting to convict Trump.

The Alabama Senate seat is a contest between Doug Jones and Tommy Tuberville. Jones is the incumbent but Tuberville is expected to win the election. This is due to the fact that Sen. Jones, despite representing a state Donald Trump won by over twenty-five points,[2] voted in favor of the sham articles of impeachment brought against the president.[3]

AL Background

Jones won election as a Democrat to the United States Senate in the 2017 Senate special election following the resignation of then-longtime incumbent Jeff Sessions to become United States Attorney General. The establishment-backed Luther Strange was initially appointed to replace Sessions, but finished second place in the Republican primary and lost in the runoff to his much more conservative and anti-establishment challenger Roy Moore.[4] After Moore faced allegations of sexual misconduct that he firmly stood against, his own party's establishment ganged up on him, with some RINOs such as Jeff Flake even endorsing and donating to Jones.[5][6]

AL Analysis

Every election rating and poll conducted for the general election so far has shown that Tuberville is inclined to win the general election over Sen. Jones.

Alaska

Republican: Dan Sullivan
Independent: Al Gross

In Alaska, one term Republican Dan Sullivan is running for re-election. The incumbent is being challenged by independent candidate Al Gross.

AL Background

Sullivan won election to the U.S. Senate in the 2014 Midterms, defeating Democrat then-incumbent Mark Begich during a nationwide red wave after attacking him over left-wing partisanship.[7][8][9] Begich was elected to the Senate in 2008, defeating longtime Republican then-incumbent Ted Stevens after the latter faced charges marked by prosecutorial misconduct.

AL Analysis

While Alaska is generally considered a red state, the race may potentially become closer than expected due to Sullivan's reputation as establishment-leaning in addition to Gross running as a registered Independent. Despite the latter's self-portrayal as being "independent", Gross is backed by the Democrat establishment[10] and said his values "are to the left".[11]

Arizona (Special)

Martha McSally official portrait cropped 115th congress.jpg Mark Kelly.PNG
Cjjfdjfty.png
Martha E. McSally
(results pending)

Democraticpartyusalogo.png
Mark E. Kelly
(results pending)

Republican: Martha McSally
Democrat: Mark Kelly

The Arizona Senate election is a contest between Martha McSally and Mark Kelly. Conservapedia predicts Martha McSally will very narrowly beat Mark Kelly for the seat. Despite polling that consistently shows Kelly up in a state whose changing demographics increasingly favor Democrats,[12] it's important to note that nearly all are flawed, having improperly weighed and/or skewed samples. An analysis here of a Civiqs/Daily Kos poll found that after properly weighing the samples by party registration, Kelly's lead over McSally was cut roughly in half. Another examination here of a poll conducted in an extremely poor manner showed that those concluding in Democrat leads in double digits always contain major flaws, in that being that the polling company is sourced in the United Kingdom, in which case is a voter suppression attempt from an influence in the form of foreign election interference to boost Democrats. An analysis of a CBS poll in mid-July here showed that after properly weighing poor sample figures, McSally was leading Kelly by one point in a likely dead heat rather than losing by four points.

While Arizona has traditionally been a red state favoring Republicans by handy margins, it has since 2016 become a swing state due to demographic changes resulting out of illegal immigration (given Arizona being a state bordering Mexico) in addition to carpetbagging by liberals from states such as California and New York who may tend to move into inner cities such as Phoenix and Tucson. The Democrat establishment has heavily backed Kelly, with him having consistently out-raised McSally as leftists are desperate to flip the Senate in the Democrats' favor.[13]

Kelly, a shill for the Democrat establishment who campaigns on a so-called "moderate" platform while admitting to favoring left-wing policies at a debate held between the two candidates on October 6, 2020,[14] has faced numerous criticisms over his ties to the Chinese Communist Party. National security concerns remain as Kelly was on the board of a company that was directly tied to a Chinese tech company,[15][16][17][18] in addition to having attended a CCP forum in 2003.[19][20] Kelly has also been criticized over his liberal hypocrisy regarding the Paycheck Protection Program Sen. McSally helped secure to provide crucial aid to small businesses amidst the CCP pandemic, criticizing it yet benefiting from the loans.[21][22][23]

McSally faced a strong primary challenger, which arguably may hurt her in the general election due to votes being siphoned away by voters who tend to buy into the mostly misleading notion of the senator being a "RINO". However, some conservatives such as Paul Gosar and Kelli Ward who previously opposed McSally in her 2018 bid now support the interim senator; Gosar predicted in early October 2020 that McSally may narrowly pull off a victory and that Donald Trump will win the state by five points in the concurrent presidential election.[24]

Arkansas

Republican: Tom Cotton
Libertarian: Ricky Harrington

The race in Arkansas is between Tom Cotton and Ricky Harrington. Conservapedia predicts that Senator Cotton will easily retain his Senate seat with a strong win, as the state is heavily Republican-favoring. No Democrat is on the ballot for the general election.

Colorado

Cory Gardner official Senate portrait.jpeg Frackenlooper.jpg
Cjjfdjfty.png
Cory Gardner
(lost)

Democraticpartyusalogo.png
John Hickenlooper
(won)

Republican: Cory Gardner
Democrat: John Hickenlooper

The race in Colorado is between Cory Gardner and John Hickenlooper. Gardner, having won election to the Senate in the 2014 Midterms amidst a massive red wave in addition to facing then-incumbent Democrat Mark Udall who sinked his own chances of re-election, is facing a formidable challenge from a state that has become increasingly in favor of the Democrats despite having once been Republican-leaning. While he is expected to likely outperform Donald Trump in the latter's concurrent presidential election in the state, Conservapedia expects him to likely be defeated, though an upset is not impossible. As noted by Rep. Ken Buck, accomplishments made by Gardner and Trump, saying:

"I think [Gardner's] in a great position to win this …"[25]

Amidst the 2020 Leftwing insurrection where far-left mobs have attacked residents in cities such as Denver and Aurora, gun sales have soared,[26] which may signify a hidden support base for the Republicans.

Hickenlooper, a phony "moderate" and establishment hack backed by the DSCC[27] which quickly favored him over all other Democrat candidates after ending his 2020 presidential campaign and announcing his run for Senate,[28] has flip-flopped over running for the position. Hickenlooper was mocked by the NRSC[29] in addition to Gardner[30] for having previously stated that he would not take an interest in serving as a senator, also saying that he wouldn't be "cut out" for it. He faced progressive Andrew Romanoff in the Democrat primary, who ran to the left;[31] Romanoff won the precinct caucuses, though ultimately lost the primary by a large margin in all but one county. This was despite Hickenlooper having been investigated for an ethics violation while governor of Colorado, denied a request to dismiss such,[32] openly defied a subpoena in early June 2020,[33] and was ultimately fined nearly $3,000 by a state commission, the largest amount ever issued by the panel.[34] He falsely[35][36] claimed that Gardner "supports Donald Trump 100% of the time."[37] Hickenlooper also has a history of making bigoted and otherwise bizarre statements/comments: he once introduced the lieutenant governor of Colorado as a "rising sex star" in front of elementary school kids,[38] made an allegedly racially insensitive comment,[39] lashed out a young constituent,[40] said that he would back the increasingly senile and cognitively declined Joe Biden despite also believing allegations made against the former vice president by Tara Reade,[41] made an arguably sexist remark about Sen. Kyrsten Sinema,[42] and called China a "great nation".[43]

Hickenlooper has been referred by some as "Frackenlooper"[44] and criticized by liberal environmentalists.[45] This is in contrast to Gardner, who has successfully sponsored and passed the Great American Outdoors Act, with the legislation signed by President Trump to ensure permanent funding of the Land and Water Conservation Fund as a protective measure for the environment.[46] Thus, Gardner must count on support from some liberal, anti-Trump environmentalists and conservationists in order to win re-election.

Delaware

Republican: Lauren Witzke vs attorney Jim DeMartino
Democrat: Chris Coons

The race in Delaware is between Chris Coons and Lauren Witzke. While polling/election ratings consider the race a safe hold for Sen. Coons, the race may become closer than expected due to Witzke running on a very populist campaign, emphasizing on combating the opioid epidemic as a top priority. She has faced attacks by far-leftists, who terrorized children that were part of one of her campaign rallies.[47]

Georgia

Republican: David Perdue
Democrat: Jon Ossoff

The race in Georgia is between David Perdue and Jon Ossoff. While the state has previously been more Republican, elections in the state have become increasingly favorable for Democrats since 2016 due to affluent suburbs breaking from the Republican Party as the Democrats increasingly become the party of the rich and wealthy while the economic nationalist wing lead by Trump focuses on uplifting and bolstering the working/middle class.

Idaho

Republican: Jim Risch
Democrat: Paulette Jordan

The race in Idaho is between Jim Risch and Paulette Jordan. The seat is expected to be a safe Republican hold, with Idaho being a very conservative state.

Illinois

Democrat: Dick Durbin
Republican: Mark Curran

The race in Illinois is between Dick Durbin and Mark Curran.

Iowa

Republican: Joni Ernst
Democrat: Theresa Greenfield

The race in Iowa is between Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield.

Kansas

Republican: Roger Marshall
Democrat: Barbara Bollier

The race in Kansas is between the winner between Roger Marshall and Dave Lindstrom and Barbara Bollier.

Kentucky

Republican: Mitch McConnell
Democrat: Amy McGrath

The race in Kentucky is between Mitch McConnell and Amy McGrath.

Maine

Republican: Susan Collins
Democrat: Sara Gideon

The race in Maine is between Susan Collins and Sara Gideon.

Massachusetts

Republican: Shiva Ayyadurai vs. Kevin O'Connor
Democrat: Ed Markey vs. Joe Kennedy III

The race in Massachusetts is between Sen. Ed Markey and Kevin O'Connor.

Michigan

Republican: John James
Democrat: Gary Peters

The race in Michigan is between Gary Peters and John James.

Minnesota

Republican: Jason Lewis
Democrat: Tina Smith

The race in Minnesota is between Jason Lewis and Tina Smith.

Mississippi

Republican: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Democrat: Mike Espy

The race in Mississippi is between Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy.

Montana

Republican: Steve Daines
Democrat: Steve Bullock

The race in Montana is between Steve Daines and Steve Bullock.

Nebraska

Republican: Ben Sasse
Democrat: Chris Janicek

The race in Nebraska is between Ben Sasse and Chris Janicek.

New Hampshire

Republican: Corky Messner
Democrat: Jeanne Shaheen

The race in New Hampshire is between Corky Messner and Jeanne Shaheen.

New Jersey

Democrat: Cory Booker
Republican: Rik Mehta

The race in New Jersey is between Cory Booker and Rik Mehta.

New Mexico

Democrat: Ben Ray Lujan
Republican: Mark Ronchetti

The race in New Mexico is between Ben Ray Lujan and Mark Ronchetti.

North Carolina

Democrat: Cal Cunningham
Republican: Thom Tillis

The race in North Carolina is between incumbent Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham.

Oklahoma

Democrat: Abby Broyles
Republican: Jim Inhofe

The race in Oklahoma is between Jim Inhome and Abby Broyles.

Oregon

Democrat: Jeff Merkley
Republican: Jo Rae Perkins

The race in Oregon is between Jeff Merkley and Jo Rae Perkins.

Rhode Island

Democrat: Jack Reed
Republican: Allen Waters

The race in Rhode Island is between Jack Reed and Allen Waters.

South Carolina

Democrat: Jaime Harrison
Republican: Lindsey Graham

The race in South Carolina is between Lindsey Graham and Jaime Harrison.

South Dakota

Democrat: Dan Ahlers
Republican: Mike Rounds

The race in South Dakota is between Mike Rounds and Dan Ahlers.

Tennessee

Democrat: Marquita Bradshaw
Republican: Bill Hagerty
Independent: Multiple candidates

The race in Tennessee is between Bill Hagerty, Marquita Bradshaw, and Independent Candidates.

Texas

Republican: John Cornyn
Democrat: Mary Hegar

The Texas Senate seat is a contest between John Cornyn and Mary Hegar. Conservapedia predicts that Mary Hegar will go on to be defeated by John Cornyn for the Senate Seat in November.

Virginia

Republican: Daniel Gade
Democrat: Mark Warner

The Virginia Senate seat is a contest between Mark Warner and Daniel Gade.

Wyoming

Republican: Cynthia Lummis
Democrat: Merav Ben-David

The Wyoming Senate seat is a contest between Cynthia Lummis and Merav Ben-David.

See also

External links

Notes/References

  1. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/2020-election-will-democrats-win-back-senate-914873/
  2. Alabama Election Results 2016
  3. Trump Impeachment Results: How Democrats and Republicans Voted
  4. Alabama Election Results: Two Republicans Advance, Democrat Wins in U.S. Senate Primaries
  5. Jeff Flake: 'No doubt' I'd support a Democrat over Roy Moore
  6. Flake donates $100 to Doug Jones campaign: 'Country over Party'
  7. Dan Sullivan for Senate: Second Amendment
  8. Dan Sullivan for Senate: Roots
  9. Mark Begich's Liberal Washington Friends (TV Ad 2014)
  10. DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race
  11. ‘My Values Are To The Left’: Independent Alaska Senate Candidate Tells DNC He’s With Them
  12. ABC News: Arizona’s Changing Demographics Helping Democrats
  13. Mark Kelly continues to outraise Senator McSally
  14. 2020 Senate Debate: Martha McSally vs Mark Kelly
  15. [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/13/mark_kelly_silent_on_firms_windfall_from_chinese_tech_giant.html Mark Kelly Silent on Firm's Windfall From Chinese Tech Giant]
  16. Arizona’s Mark Kelly Sat on Advisory Board of Company That Partnered With Chinese Tech Giant
  17. AZ Senate: Mark Kelly Facing Backlash for Company's Ties to China
  18. AZ Senate wannabe Mark Kelly’s Chinese Communist ties exposed
  19. For Mark Kelly, Attending Forum Hosted by CCP Was the Beginning of Lucrative Relationship with China
  20. Gun-Grabbing Grifter Mark Kelly Is Yet Another Democrat in Bed With the Chinese Communist Party
  21. Democratic candidates benefit from PPP loans they criticized
  22. Arizona’s Mark Kelly Slammed PPP While His Company Reaped Its Benefits
  23. Democrat Senate Candidates Benefited from PPP Loans While Criticizing Program
  24. GOP Rep. Paul Gosar: ‘Donald Trump Will Win Arizona’
  25. Exclusive–Ken Buck: Trump, Cory Gardner’s Record Will Lead to GOP Victory in Colorado
  26. Colorado gun sales remain at high volume, prompting $1.3 million request to speed up background checks
  27. Colorado Dems Push Back Against Hickenlooper Senate Run
  28. [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-hickenlooper-2020-announces-senate-run-after-dropping-out-of-white-house-race/ John Hickenlooper announces Senate run after dropping out of White House race]
  29. NRSC Mocks Hickenlooper for Now Running for Job He Said He Couldn't Do
  30. Delight
  31. Green New Deal advocate claims win over Hickenlooper in Colorado caucuses
  32. Ethics Commission Denies Hickenlooper Request to Dismiss Investigation
  33. John Hickenlooper defies subpoena to appear for virtual hearing on ethics complaint
  34. Hickenlooper fined $2,750 by state ethics panel for violating gifts rule as governor
  35. Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO) on Attorney General Jeff Sessions' marijuana policy change (C-SPAN)
  36. Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump
  37. John Hickenlooper, Andrew Romanoff face off in 9NEWS Democratic Senate Debate
  38. 'He's a rising sex star': Governor's X-rated introduction for deputy at elementary school
  39. NRSC Condemns Hickenlooper for 'Racially Insensitive' Comment About Black Pastors
  40. Ok, Boomer: Hickenlooper Gets Angry With Young Constituent
  41. John Hickenlooper: I believe Tara Reade, but 'I still support Joe Biden'
  42. CO Sen: Hickenlooper Makes Demeaning Comment About Sen. Sinema After Forgetting Her Name
  43. Hickenlooper Calls China a ‘Great Nation’
  44. Stop Frackenlooper
  45. Liberals Slam Hickenlooper for Environmental Record
  46. S.3422 - Great American Outdoors Act
  47. Disgusting: Eggs Were Thrown at Children During Delaware Republican Rally, Democrats Silent