Conservapedia:Unofficial 2020 presidential election predictions

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With the 2020 U.S. presidential election approaching, this project page is a list of state by state predictions made by Conservapedia editors to provide a helpful insight on the background of the overall election. Projections are made by analyzing the best and latest available polls in each state, as well as a host of non-numerical factors.

2016 Election Results

State Hilary 2016 Electoral Votes Trump 2016 Electoral Votes
Alabama 72,947 0 1,318,255 9
Alaska 116,454 0 163,387 3
Arizona 1,161,167 0 1,252,401 11
Arkansas 380,494 0 684,872 6
California 8,753,788 55 4,483,810 0
Colorado 1,338,870 9 1,202,484 0
Connecticut 897,572 7 673,215 0
Delaware 235,603 3 185,127 0
Florida 4,504,975 0 4,617,886 29
Georgia 1,877,963 0 2,089,104 16
Hawaii 266,891 4 128,847 0
Idaho 189,765 0 409,055 4
Illinois 3,090,729 20 2,146,015 0
Indiana 1,033,126 0 1,557,286 11
Iowa 653,669 0 800,983 6
Kansas 427,005 0 671,018 6
Kentucky 628,854 0 1,202,971 8
Louisiana 780,154 0 1,178,638 8
Maine 715,326 3 671,154 1
Maryland 1,677,928 10 943,169 0
Massachusetts 1,995,196 11 1,090,893 0
Michigan 2,268,839 0 2,279,543 16
Minnesota 1,367,716 10 1,322,951 0
Mississippi 485131 0 700714 6
Missouri 1,071,068 0 1,594,511 10
Montana 177,709 0 279,240 3
Nebraska 568,940 0 991,808 5
Nevada 539,260 6 512,058 0
New Hampshire 348,526 4 345,790 0
New Jersey 2,148,278 14 1,601,933 0
New Mexico 385,234 5 319,667 0
New York 4,556,124 29 2,819,534 0
North Carolina 2,189,316 0 2,362,631 15
North Dakota 93,758 0 216,794 3
Ohio 2,394,164 0 2,841,005 18
Oklahoma 420,375 0 949,136 7
Oregon 1,002,106 7 782,403 0
Pennsylvania 2,926,441 0 2,970,733 20
Rhode Island 252,525 4 180,543 0
South Carolina 855,373 0 1,155,389 9
South Dakota 117,458 0 227,721 3
Tennessee 870,695 0 1,522,925 11
Texas 3,877,868 0 4,685,047 38
Utah 310,676 0 515,231 6
Vermont 178,573 3 95,369 0
Virginia 1,981,473 13 1,769,443 0
Washington 1,742,718 12 1,221,747 0
West Virginia 188,794 0 489,371 5
Wisconsin 1,382,536 0 1,405,284 10
Wyoming 55,973 0 174,419 3
Total 65,538,514 229 62,984,828 306

Statewide projections

To estimate the likely distribution of electoral college votes this November, a first stage is gathering cumulative data on polling from which to draw inferences.

Alabama

College Votes at Stake: 9

Alabama looks set to be another comfortable win for President Trump. Two different polls show the President with a comfortable 20 point lead over Biden. [1]

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Mason-Dixon 2/11/20 625 38 58
WPA Intelligence 1/28/20 500 38 59

Alaska

College Votes at Stake: 3

Alaska was a Republican red state in the last election and all indications suggest it will be so again in 2020. A Zogby Analytics poll from July-August 2019 showed President Trump comfortably beating all candidates and beating Biden by 5. A more recent poll shows President Trump continues to lead Biden. And another shows a complete decimation. [2]

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Zogby Analytics Jul-Aug 19 321 40 45
Public Policy Polling Jul 2020 1081 45 48
Auburn University Jul 2020 558 41 55

Arizona

College Votes at Stake: 11

Arizona looks set to be a tough race this time. A couple of polls show Trump closely behind Biden, but within the margin of error, in the state. A June 2020 poll shows President Trump pulling ahead, supporting Conservapedia's analysis of President Trump's powerful ground game within the State.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Gravis Marketing 06/27/20 527 45 49
Monmouth University 03/14/20 847 46 43
Public Policy Polling 03/02/20 666 48 47

In addition, the ground support for President Trump looks very good in Arizona: "“We have over two million voter contacts,” said Keith Schipper, the campaign’s regional communications director responsible for Nevada and Arizona. “Contrast that with Joe Biden, who just hired his first two staffers last week. They are parachuting in to try to build these relationships. Arizona voted for the president in 2016 and it’s going to go for him again in November.” [3]

Arkansas

College Votes at Stake: 6

Arkansas will be a very comfortable victory for President Trump. Polls from February show President Trump sailing to victory with a lead of 22 points.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Progress Campaign Poll 02/27/20 643 36 58

California

College Votes at Stake: 55

California being one of the most liberal states in the union is a safe bet for the Democrats. Emerson Polling shows Biden leads Trump by 30 points, but only 54% of Californians expect Biden to be the next president. Enthusiasm for Trump is higher at 55% while sleepy Joe Biden has a low enthusiasm rate of 48% in California.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump "Biden Expectation"
Emerson Polling 05/10/20 800 59 29 54

Colorado

College Votes at Stake: 9

Colorado has consistently polled in favor of Biden, but some of those polls were before the disclosures of Tara Reade that Biden sexually assaulted her had had their impact on voters. It remains to be seen if Biden's lead will decrease as a consequence of it in coming months.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Five Thirty Eight 05/06/20 600 55 36
Five Thirty Eight 05/05/20 380 53 35
Five Thirty Eight 02/19/20 485 46 43

Connecticut

Candidate Biden is favored to win in Connecticut. Polls show him in a commanding lead too distant to be merely coincidental or down to polling fraud.

College Votes at stake: 7

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Quinnipiac 05/06/20 945 56 33

Delaware

Candidate Biden is favored to win in Delaware. Polls show him in a commanding lead too distant to be merely coincidental or down to polling fraud.

College Votes at stake: 3

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Gonzalez Research 01/27/20 410 56 40

Florida

College Votes at stake: 29

President Trump has a very good chance to win again in Florida. Polls show President Trump roughly tied with Biden, but the President has a strong base of support in the State.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Trafalgar Group 07/03/20 1072 46 46

Georgia

College Votes at stake: 16

President Trump has a very good chance to win again in Georgia. There are polls that show President Trump ahead of Biden, and the President has a strong base of support in the State.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Target Smart 06/03/20 321 40 44

Hawaii

College Votes at stake: 4

Idaho

College Votes at stake: 4

Illinois

College Votes at stake: 20

Indiana

College Votes at stake: 11

President Trump has a very good chance to win again in Indiana. Polls show President Trump ahead by a very solid margin and coasting to victory.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Victoria Research May 2020 894 39 49
Change Research April 2020 1021 39 52

Iowa

College Votes at stake: 6

President Trump has a very good chance to win again in Iowa as well. Polls show President Trump ahead by a solid margin.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
GBAQ July 2020 500 45 48
Public Policy Polling May 2020 1221 46 48

Kansas

College Votes at stake: 6

President Trump has a very good chance to win again in Kansas. Polls show President Trump ahead by a solid margin and comfortably sailing to victory.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Civiqs June 2020 699 40 52
Public Policy Polling March 2020 1567 40 52

Kentucky

College Votes at stake: 8

President Trump has a very good chance to win again in Kentucky as well. Polls show President Trump far ahead and comfortably sailing to victory.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Civiqs June 2020 898 37 57
RMG Research May 2020 500 36 53

Louisiana

College Votes at stake: 8

President Trump has a good chance to win in Louisiana. Polls are unavailable, but the state was carried by Trump last time around and has remained red since 2000. It normally favors incumbent and therefore can be classified as safe R this time.

Maine

College Votes at stake: 4

Candidate Biden is favored to win in Maine. Polls show him in a commanding lead too distant to be merely coincidental or down to polling fraud.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Public Policy Polling 07/02/20 1022 53 42

Maryland

College Votes at stake: 10

Candidate Biden is favored to win in Maryland. Polls show him in a commanding lead too distant to be merely coincidental or down to polling fraud.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Gonzalez Research 07/02/20 810 59 35

Massachusetts

College Votes at Stake: 11

Massachusetts is a liberal blue state typically and was in the last election and all indications suggest it will be so again in 2020. An Emerson College poll showed Biden comfortably beating President Trump.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Emerson College May 20 740 67 33

Michigan

College Votes at Stake: 16

Michigan is a top swing state typically and it was an extremely close call in the last election, with President Trump eking out a narrow victory by less than 0.5%. All indications are it will be a close race again in 2020. An Atlas Intel poll from March 2020 shows President Trump in a narrow lead.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Atlas Intel Mar 20 1120 44 46

Minnesota

College Votes at Stake: 16

Minnesota is another swing state typically and was also a close call in the last election, with President Trump losing by a small margin less than 5%. All indications are it will be a close race again in 2020. A Mason Dixon poll from May 2020 shows President Trump behind Sleepy Joe Biden.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Mason Dixon May 2020 800 49 44

Mississippi

College Votes at Stake: 6

Mississippi is a red state which President Trump comfortably won in 2016. All indications are that he will win it again by a comfortable margin.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Millsaps College June 2020 568 41 50

Missouri

College Votes at Stake: 10

Missouri is a red state which President Trump comfortably won in 2016. All indications are that he will win it again by a comfortable margin.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Remington Research June 2020 1152 43 51

Montana

College Votes at Stake: 3

Montana will be a very comfortable victory for President Trump. Polls show President Trump sailing to victory with a lead of 14 points.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Progress Campaign Poll 06/26/20 517 38 52

Nebraska

College Votes at Stake: 5

Turnout in the party primaries implies this state will vote for Trump by a large margin again this year,[4] although the second congressional district may be close.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
DCCC Targeting May 2020 448 52 41

Nevada

College Votes at Stake: 6

Nevada looks like it will swing to President Trump this time. Polls show President Trump has a slight lead in the state.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Emerson College Nov 2019 1089 49 51

New Hampshire

College Votes at Stake: 4

New Hampshire looks like it will be won by President Trump this time. Polls show President Trump is ahead by a small margin in the state.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Emerson College Feb 2020 576 44 46

North Carolina

College Votes at Stake: 15

North Carolina looks like it will be won by President Trump this time. Polls show President Trump is ahead by a small margin in the state.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Gravis Marketing June 2020 631 43 46

North Dakota

College Votes at Stake: 3

North Dakota looks like it will be a very comfortable win by President Trump. Conservapedia predicts he will almost certainly carry the state.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
DFM Research March 2020 400 38 55

New Jersey

It's a liberal blue state. Trump lost in 2016. Biden is ahead in most polls.

New Mexico

It's a liberal blue state. Trump lost in 2016. Biden is ahead in most polls.

New York

It's a liberal blue state. Trump lost in 2016. Biden is ahead in most polls.

Ohio

College Votes at Stake: 18

Ohians have high levels of enthusiasm for President Trump, at 70% vs just 39% for Biden, a factor that could be key in a landslide victory for the President. Trump's lead over Biden is much closer, at just 3 points, but the massive enthusiasm gap could have a huge impact e.g. on voter turnout, on election day, Nov. 3rd.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump "Trump Expectation"
Emerson Polling 05/10/20 725 43 46 62

Oklahoma

College Votes at Stake: 7

Oklahoma is a red state which President Trump comfortably won in 2016. All indications are that he will win it again by a comfortable margin.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Amber Integrated June 2020 500 36 55

Oregon

College Votes at Stake: 7

Oregon is a liberal blue state which President Trump lost in 2016. All indications so far are that Candidate Sleepy Joe Biden will win it this time.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Amber Integrated June 2020 500 36 55

Pennsylvania

College Votes at Stake: 20

Pennsylvania is a swing state which President Trump managed to win in 2016. All indications are that he will win it again by a small margin.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Change Research June 2020 579 46 50

Rhode Island

College Votes at Stake: 4

Rhode Island went to Hilary Clinton in 2016 and there are indications it will go to Candidate Biden this time around.

South Carolina

College Votes at Stake: 9

South Carolina is a red state which President Trump comfortably won in 2016. All indications are that he will win it again by a comfortable margin.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Civiqs May 2020 591 42 52

South Dakota

College Votes at Stake: 3

South Dakota is a red state which President Trump bagged in 2016. President Trump should be able to eke out a victory again in the state.

Tennessee

College Votes at Stake: 11

President Trump repeatedly demonstrates a very solid ground game and massive support in Tennessee. Conservapedia predicts he will almost certainly carry the state.

Texas

College Votes at Stake: 38

Texans are very enthusiastic about Trump (67%) compared to Biden (40%), a factor that could prove decisive in the end. Trump's lead over Biden is much closer, at just 5 points, but the huge enthusiasm gap suggests Biden is just unable to click with voters in the way that President Trump clearly has.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump "Trump Excitement (Enthusiasm)"
Emerson Polling 05/10/20 800 41 46 61

Utah

College Votes at Stake: 6

Utah is a red state which President Trump comfortably won in 2016. All indications are that he will win it again by a comfortable margin.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Y2 Analytics May 2020 1078 38 48

Vermont

College Votes at Stake: 6

Vermont is a lib state which President Trump lost in 2016. All indications so far are that Candidate Joe Biden will win it this time.

Virginia

College Votes at Stake: 13

Virginia went to Hillary Clinton in 2016. It looks set to be a tossup in November.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Mason Dixon Dec 2019 625 45 49

Washington

College Votes at Stake: 12

Washington is a liberal blue state typically and was in the last election and all indications suggest it will be so again in 2020. A Zogby Analytics poll from July-August 2019 showed Biden comfortably beating President Trump.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
Zogby Analytics Jul-Aug 19 321 52 31

West Virginia

College Votes at Stake: 5

West Virginia will be a clean and comprehensive victory for President Trump. He has a massive, incredible lead in the polls.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
WPA Intelligence Jan 2020 500 31 66

Wisconsin

College Votes at Stake: 10

Washington was a red state in the last election and there are indications suggest it will be so again in 2020. A recent poll shows President Trump maintaining a slight lead over Sleepy Joe Biden.

Source Date Sample Biden Trump
[1] 06/25/20 1021 45 46

Wyoming

College Votes at Stake: 5

President Trump looks set to win again in Wyoming as he did last time. It was a Republican red state in 2016 and there are indications it will be again. The incumbent, President Trump, is traditionally favored.

National projections

Stony Brook University's Professor Helmut Norpoth, who correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in 2016 against mainstream media naysaying, estimates there is a 91% likelihood that President Trump will win again in November 2020: ""OK, the key to the November election is the primaries. And, the only primaries [are] already giving us a lot of information," he explained.

And, based on that, Donald Trump won them very easily in his party," Norpoth continued. "Joe Biden -- the likely nominee for the Democrats -- had a great deal of trouble holding it together. But, on balance, it's that stronger performance of primaries that gives Donald Trump the edge in November."[5]

2020 Election Projections

State Biden 2020 Electoral
College Votes
Trump 2020 Electoral
College Votes
Comment: Explanation/Reasoning
Alabama 0 9 Two polls showing clear victory with 20% lead.
Alaska 0 3 Five percentage point lead implies a likely victory.
Arizona 0 11 Too close to call, as more data is needed for clear inference, especially with fake "polling" rampant. While generally considered a red state, Arizona has long elected RINO John McCain into office, given a coalition of neocons that especially play an important political role in Maricopa County. Currently somewhat of a tossup, Trump's chances of winning are similar to Martha McSally's in the latter's concurrent Senate special election. The state is currently being carpetbagged by common sense-lacking California liberals who move there and continue voting for Democrats that favor destructive policies. Awarded to President Trump on strength of ground support. [6]
Arkansas 0 6 A comfortable lead of over 22% showing certain victory.
California 55 0 30 point lead for Biden means he will be hard to beat here.
Colorado 9 0 Polls imply Biden has a lead of nearly 20 points in the state. At one point a Republican state, Colorado has been trending blue ever since the 2008 presidential race, although Trump lost by only just under 5% in the state in 2016.
Connecticut 7 0 Candidate Biden has a commanding lead in the polls.
Delaware 3 0 Candidate Biden has a commanding lead in the polls, although some have noted that the state isn't as solidly blue as many expect.
Florida 0 29 President Trump won Florida in 2016 and still has strong support; the state is known for tending to favor incumbents.
Georgia 0 16 President Trump comfortably won in 2016, although Georgia is slightly trending blue.
Hawaii 4 0 President Trump lost the state in 2016.
Idaho 0 4 President Trump comfortably won in 2016.
Illinois 20 0 President Trump lost the state in 2016.
Indiana 0 11 President Trump comfortably ahead in the polls.
Iowa 0 6 President Trump comfortably ahead in the polls.
Kansas 0 6 President Trump comfortably won in 2016 and is well ahead in the polls.
Kentucky 0 8 President Trump comfortably won in 2016 and is well ahead in the polls.
Louisiana 0 8 President Trump comfortably won in 2016 and state has been red for 20 years.
Maine 4 0 Incumbent strongly favored. Trump lost in 2016.
Maryland 10 0 Incumbent strongly favored. Trump lost in 2016.
Massachusetts 11 0 Incumbent strongly favored. Trump lost in 2016.
Michigan 0 16 Polls show President Trump ahead of Biden.
Minnesota 10 0 Polls show President Trump behind Biden.
Mississippi 0 6 President Trump comfortably won in 2016 and is well ahead in the polls.
Missouri 0 10 President Trump comfortably won in 2016 and is well ahead in the polls.
Montana 0 3 Polls show President Trump way ahead of Biden.
Nebraska 5 0 Polls suggest Trump is falling behind in the state.
Nevada 0 6 Polls show President Trump ahead in the state.
New Hampshire 0 4 President Trump is ahead in key polls.
New Jersey 14 0 Liberal blue state; Trump lost in 2016; behind in polls.
New Mexico 5 0 Liberal blue state; Trump lost in 2016; behind in polls.
New York 29 0 Liberal blue state; Trump lost in 2016; behind in polls.
North Carolina 0 15 Polls show President Trump well ahead in the state.
North Dakota 0 3 Polls show President Trump well ahead in the state.
Ohio 0 18 Enthusiasm gap suggests a decisive victory for President Trump.
Oklahoma 0 7 Past trends suggests a likely victory for President Trump.
Oregon 7 0 Past trends suggests a likely victory for Candidate Biden.
Pennsylvania 0 20 Will be a close race. A poll shows President Trump ahead.
Rhode Island 4 0 Past trends suggests a likely victory for Candidate Biden.
South Carolina 0 9 Polls show a confident lead for President Trump.
South Dakota 0 3 Past trends suggests a likely victory for President Trump.
Tennessee 0 11 3 separate polls point to decisive victory for the President.
Texas 0 38 Enthusiasm gap suggests a decisive victory for President Trump.
Utah 0 6 Polling shows a decisive victory for President Trump.
Vermont 3 0 Past trends show a likely loss for President Trump.
Virginia 0 13 Polling shows a decisive victory for President Trump.
Washington 12 0 Polls show a comfortable lead and victory for Candidate Biden.
West Virginia 0 5 Polls show President Trump is hugely ahead in the State.
Wisconsin 0 10 Polls show President Trump is slightly ahead in the State.
Wyoming 0 3 Polling not available; Trump State in 2016; favors incumbents.
Total (17-33 from 50 States) 212 323

References

See also