Essay: Why Russia's religious persecution of Russian Protestants is not good for Russia

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Russian demography has long been an existential issue to Vladimir Putin. In 2021, he declared “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority".[1]

In Russia, Protestant Christians are persecuted (See: Reports of present-day restrictions on religious activity and/or persecution of Protestants in Russia). But as the Roman Empire's persecution of Christians proved, persecution is often unsuccessful against the spread of the gospel and Protestantism is growing in Russia (See: Growth of Protestantism in Russia). See also: The exponential growth of Christianity in the Roman Empire

Russia's fertility rate of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.[2] Its fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Russia's state statistics service reports that as of 2020 73 percent of Russian marriages ended in divorce, with 48 percent divorcing before having children.

Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.[2] And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.[2]

Russian demography has long been an existential issue to Vladimir Putin. In 2021, he declared “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority".[3]

Question: Do Bible-believing Christians have more children than less religious people? Yes, they do (See: Atheism and fertility rates).

The Daily Mail reported concerning American Christianity:

“ It was also found that Christians living in the US had 3.11 children and Catholics had 3.42.

...The team explained that there is evidence that genetically influenced personality traits, particularly agreeableness, lead to greater religious involvement, larger family size and greater communal investment in general.

'A recent meta-analysis of a large sample studies found that adults who score high on agreeableness tend to invest heavily in both religious and family life,' reads the study.[4]

”

The Amish are the fastest growing religion in the United States, doubling every 20 years.[5] The Amish population is growing so fast that each year some families move out to acquire more farmland. They are highly successful financially and morally. By 2050 the Amish are expected to attain 1 million in total population in the United States, and by 2222 the Amish could be the majority in the U.S.[6] The largest Amish communities are in Pennsylvania, where the Amish population exceeded 84,000 as of 2021 and is growing at more than 3% annual rate.

On December 23, 2012, Eric Kaufmann wrote about the subject of global desecularization:

“ I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population... In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British. [7]

”

A study conducted by the Washington-based Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life says that Africans are among the most religious people on Earth.[8] Africa has a high fertility rate and it is seeing a big population boom. According to the Institute For Security Studies: "Africa's population is the fastest growing in the world. It is expected to increase by roughly 50% over the next 18 years, growing from 1.2 billion people today to over 1.8 billion in 2035. In fact, Africa will account for nearly half of global population growth over the next two decades."[9] See also: Religion and Africa and Global desecularization

"I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious." - Eric Kaufmann

At a conference Kaufmann said of religious demographic projections concerning the 21st century:

“ Part of the reason I think demography is very important, at least if we are going to speak about the future, is that it is the most predictable of the social sciences.

...if you look at a population and its age structure now. You can tell a lot about the future. ...So by looking at the relative age structure of different populations you can already say a lot about the future...

...Religious fundamentalism is going to be on the increase in the future and not just out there in the developing world..., but in the developed world as well.[10]

”

Kaufman wrote in his academic paper Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century

“ Today, values play a more important role in fertility behaviour, throwing the contrast between religious pronatalism and secular low-fertility individualism into relief. Over several generations, this process can lead to significant social and political changes. Early Christianity’s exponential rise during its gestation period from 30 to 300 A.D. has been traced to its superior demography (fertility, mortality and female sex ratio), which maintained a rate of growth similar to contemporary Mormonism: 40 percent per decade. For Christians, this led to a jump from 40 converts to 6 million inside three centuries. (Stark 1996) Christianity became the religion of an empire and a continent. In the United States, conservative sects increased their share of white Protestantism from roughly a third to two-thirds during the twentieth century – largely on the back of higher fertility. On the other hand, sects like the Shakers and Cathars, which permitted entry only through conversion, rapidly faded from the scene. Demographic religious revival is a medium and long-term phenomenon, but awareness of shifting population composition can lead to political soul-searching and instability well before the full impact of demographic change takes place. This is clear in ethnically-tense societies like Israel, Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Lebanon, Cote D’Ivoire or Assam.[11] ”
Steve Turley

Steve Turley wrote:

“ According to a recent a demographic study by University of London Professor Eric Kaufmann, there is a significant demographic deficit between secularists and conservative religionists. For example, in the U.S., while self-identified secular women averaged only 1.5 children per couple in 2002, conservative evangelical women averaged 2 to 3 children per couple, which amounts to a 28 percent fertility advantage. Now Kaufmann notices that this demographic deficit has dramatic effects over time. In a population evenly divided, these numbers indicate that conservative evangelicals would increase from 50 to 62.5 percent of the population in a single generation. In two generations, their number would increase to 73.5 percent, and over the course of 200 years, they would represent 99.4 percent.

Kaufmann noticed further that the more religiously conservative, the more children. For example, the Amish double in population every twenty years, and are projected to number over a million in the U.S. and Canada in just a few decades. We're seeing a similar trend among Mormons, who have averaged a 40 percent growth per decade, which means that by the end of the century, there will be as many as 300 million Mormons in the world, or six percent of the world's population. And note: Mormons vote overwhelmingly Republican.

Now in stark contrast to all of this, Kaufmann's data projects that secularists consistently exemplify a low fertility rate of around 1.5 percent per couple, which is significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 percent. And so he sees a steady decline of secular populations after 2030 or 2050 to potentially no more than a mere 14 to 15 percent of the American population. He notices that similar projections apply to Europe as well.[12]

”

Is a less competitive religious marketplace good for the Russian Orthodox Church or does it breed complacency?

Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow, Russia

The United States has no state religion. And yet is one of the most religious countries in the developed world. The problem with churches that have the power of the state behind them is that it makes the religious marketplace less competitive. In addition, if the state becomes corrupt, a national church's image gets tarnished. See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

The Russian Orthodox Church has a close alliance with the Russian state.

The Yale Review of International Studies article Once Again with the Church and the State: Russian Orthodox Faith in Characterizing Contemporary National Politics states:

“ Orthodoxy’s close alliance with the Russian state dated back to the 10th century AD, when Prince Vladimir I’s military and spiritual conquests culminated in the unification of disparate Byzantine provinces and, ultimately, the creation of the first centrally governed Russian state. Following the event of the Baptism of Rus in 988 AD, in which the same Prince converted the whole of Russia to Eastern Orthodox Christianity, Orthodox values have steadily become intertwined with Russia’s national mythology and political culture, with prominent sentiments of nationalism, conservatism, and Russian exceptionalism all having deep affiliations with the dominant religion. Indeed, Russian exceptionalism—the popular faith in Russia’s uniqueness, holiness, and divine providence as an empire—is advocated by Orthodox adherents who believe that Russia is the single state where traditional Orthodox beliefs have been preserved intact since the Byzantine Empire. The expression of Orthodox piety demonstrates a reverence towards Russian tradition and culture.9 Russia’s leaders, in turn, have taken an interest not only in furthering the national state’s development, but also in assuming the spiritual imperative to shape the moral life of the citizenry, as evidenced by the support of both Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin for the Moscow Patriarchate.[13] ”

2022 Attendance figures of Russian Orthodox Churches in Russia has dropped to 1%

Orthodox Church at one of the entrances to Red Square.

In 2022, it was reported that attendance at Russian Orthodox Church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.[14]

In 2022, it was reported that attendance at Russian Orthodox Church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.[15]

Pew Research indicated in a 2017 article entitled Religious Belief and National Belonging in Central and Eastern Europe:

“ In many Central and Eastern European countries, religion and national identity are closely entwined. This is true in former communist states, such as the Russian Federation and Poland, where majorities say that being Orthodox or Catholic is important to being “truly Russian” or “truly Polish.” It is also the case in Greece, where the church played a central role in Greece’s successful struggle for independence from the Ottoman Empire and where today three-quarters of the public (76%) says that being Orthodox is important to being “truly Greek.”

Many people in the region embrace religion as an element of national belonging even though they are not highly observant. Relatively few Orthodox or Catholic adults in Central and Eastern Europe say they regularly attend worship services, pray often or consider religion central to their lives. For example, a median of just 10% of Orthodox Christians across the region say they go to church on a weekly basis.

Indeed, compared with many populations Pew Research Center previously has surveyed – from the United States to Latin America to sub-Saharan Africa to Muslims in the Middle East and North Africa – Central and Eastern Europeans display relatively low levels of religious observance.

Nonetheless, the comeback of religion in a region once dominated by atheist regimes is striking – particularly in some historically Orthodox countries, where levels of religious affiliation have risen substantially in recent decades.[16]

”

Religious marketplace theory

The New York Times article Supply and Demand Among the Faithful notes:

“ Competition, and supply and demand, shape the earthly aspects of religion -- its popularity and how it is delivered -- they say. And people in pews are fickle consumers, ready to bolt to a competing brand if the current one seems stale or uninspired.

This economic approach has led them to conclude that competition, rather than undermining belief, actually spurs it. Not only does it make clergymen work harder, they say, but it also means there is a greater likelihood that any one person will find a church that suits his spiritual tendencies, whether New Age or biblical literalist.

It can be demonstrated that in any society there is a distribution of religious tastes and concerns, said Rodney Stark, a professor of sociology at the University of Washington and a leading proponent of what is known as the religious economies theory. The basic point is that any society would be better served by many different religions focusing on -- if you want to use market language -- different market segments. I'm sure we drink more soda pop because there are 20 companies out there, rather than just Coke. Why wouldn't religion be the same, he asks?

Religious pluralism, Mr. Stark and others say, explains why the United States is so religiously vibrant, while much of Western Europe has seen a decline in interest in traditional churches...

Mr. Berger, now director of the Institute on Religion and World Affairs at Boston University, wrote that faith was once like an awning that sheltered all of society, offering citizens a common certainty. But as tolerance opened the door to different varieties, the canopy tore: certainty could not help but decline, and faith followed. Mr. Berger made his case through broad historical and cultural analysis.

But Mr. Stark and Roger Finke, a sociologist at Penn State and co-author of Acts of Faith: Explaining the Human Side of Religion (University of California, 2000), argue that this big-picture sociological view is often woolly and unscientific. They say, too, that a new theory is needed to make sense of America. In the United States today, some 40 percent of adults claim to attend church weekly, compared with 10 percent in Britain and 4 percent in Scandinavia. With some 1,350 denominations and sects, according to the Encyclopedia of American Religions, the United States is at once one of the most pluralistic and one of the most religious modern societies. Those facts have forced sociologists to rethink the idea that religion would die out when neighbors stopped believing in the same God.[17]

”

Protestant missionaries and economic/societal development statistics

See also: Protestant cultural legacies and Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism

John Wesley

The article "The Surprising Discovery About Those Colonialist, Proselytizing Missionaries" published in Christianity Today notes:

“ In his fifth year of graduate school, Woodberry created a statistical model that could test the connection between missionary work and the health of nations. He and a few research assistants spent two years coding data and refining their methods. They hoped to compute the lasting effect of missionaries, on average, worldwide...

One morning, in a windowless, dusty computer lab lit by fluorescent bulbs, Woodberry ran the first big test. After he finished prepping the statistical program on his computer, he clicked "Enter" and then leaned forward to read the results.

"I was shocked," says Woodberry. "It was like an atomic bomb. The impact of missions on global democracy was huge. I kept adding variables to the model—factors that people had been studying and writing about for the past 40 years—and they all got wiped out. It was amazing. I knew, then, I was on to something really important."

Woodberry already had historical proof that missionaries had educated women and the poor, promoted widespread printing, led nationalist movements that empowered ordinary citizens, and fueled other key elements of democracy. Now the statistics were backing it up: Missionaries weren't just part of the picture. They were central to it...

Areas where Protestant missionaries had a significant presence in the past are on average more economically developed today, with comparatively better health, lower infant mortality, lower corruption, greater literacy, higher educational attainment (especially for women), and more robust membership in nongovernmental associations.

In short: Want a blossoming democracy today? The solution is simple—if you have a time machine: Send a 19th-century missionary."

...at a conference presentation in 2002, Woodberry got a break. In the room sat Charles Harper Jr., then a vice president at the John Templeton Foundation, which was actively funding research on religion and social change. (Its grant recipients have included Christianity Today.) Three years later, Woodberry received half a million dollars from the foundation's Spiritual Capital Project, hired almost 50 research assistants, and set up a huge database project at the University of Texas, where he had taken a position in the sociology department. The team spent years amassing more statistical data and doing more historical analyses, further confirming his theory.

...Woodberry's historical and statistical work has finally captured glowing attention. A summation of his 14 years of research—published in 2012 in the American Political Science Review, the discipline's top journal—has won four major awards, including the prestigious Luebbert Article Award for best article in comparative politics. Its startling title: "The Missionary Roots of Liberal Democracy."

...over a dozen studies have confirmed Woodberry's findings. The growing body of research is beginning to change the way scholars, aid workers, and economists think about democracy and development.[18]

”
The Harvard University historian Niall Ferguson declared: "Through a mixture of hard work and thrift the Protestant societies of the North and West Atlantic achieved the most rapid economic growth in history."[19]

Reports of present-day restrictions on religious activity and/or persecution of Protestants in Russia

Baptists in Vladivostok, Russia

See also: Restrictions on religious activity and/or religious persecution in Czarist, Soviet, and contemporary Russia and Growth of Protestantism in Russia

Under Russian law, unregistered religious activity is illegal, such as public evangelism without a permit, as seen in some of the reports below:

2006 report of present-day restrictions on religious activity and/or persecution of Pentecostals, Baptists and Catholics

According to a 2006 report of CWNews: "Pentecostals, Catholics and Baptists are among the Russian religious communities to complain recently of police failure to protect them from attacks or other unwarranted intrusions during services, or of police raids to prevent them conducting religious activity-- such as giving out religious literature- - which they regard as legitimate, the Forum 18 news service reports."[20]

Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

See: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

User: Conservative's essays

See also

  • Don Ossewaarde - the first American convicted of breaking a Russian law that bans preaching the Gospel outside a registered church.
  • Yarovaya law

Notes

  1. ↑ Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’, Fortune magazine, 2022
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure, bne IntelliNews, 2022
  3. ↑ Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’, Fortune magazine, 2022
  4. ↑ Is atheism dying out? Study finds religious people reproduce MORE due to their lack of belief in contraception by STACY LIBERATORE, Daily Mail, 15 March 2017
  5. ↑ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-08-01/why-the-amish-population-is-exploding#:~:text=But%20according%20to%20a%20new,in%201989%20of%20about%20100%2C000.
  6. ↑ By doubling its population every 20 years, the Amish population would increase by 1024 times in 200 years.
  7. ↑ 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious, Tuesday, April 30, 2013
  8. ↑ Why so many Africans are religious: Leo Igwe
  9. ↑ Africa’s population boom: burden or opportunity?, Institute For Security Studies
  10. ↑ Eric Kaufmann - Religion, Demography and Politics in the 21st Century
  11. ↑ Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London (PDF)
  12. ↑ Feminist Futility: Why the Women's March Promises a Conservative Future by Steve Turley, Christian Post
  13. ↑ Once Again with the Church and the State: Russian Orthodox Faith in Characterizing Contemporary National Politics, Yale Review of International Studies', 2021
  14. ↑ attendance at Russian Orthodox church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.
  15. ↑ attendance at Russian Orthodox church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent.
  16. ↑ Religious Belief and National Belonging in Central and Eastern Europe, Pew Research, 2017
  17. ↑ Supply and Demand Among the Faithful, New York Times, 2001
  18. ↑ Christianity Today, "The surprising discovery about those colonialist, proselytizing missionaries", January 8, 2014
  19. ↑ The Protestant Work Ethic: Alive & Well…In China By Hugh Whelchel on September 24, 2012
  20. ↑ Whose side are police on? Russian Christians ask, CWNews.com, 2006
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