Trump Doctrine

The Trump Doctrine is shaped by Trump 2.0 Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby's "Strategy Of Denial", according to international affairs expert Andrew Korybko.

The "Trump Doctrine" is all about the US' continued military overmatch vis-à-vis China together with placing the US in a position where it can complementarily deny China access to the energy and markets that it requires to maintain its growth and thus its superpower trajectory.

Trump 2.0's grand strategy became clear when the US bombed ISIS in Nigeria on Christmas 2025, executed its "special military operation" in Venezuela kidnapping President Maduro, and threatened more strikes against Iran on the pretext of supporting anti-government protesters. What these three states have in common is their important roles in the global energy industry and in China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI).

Coercing those energy producing countries into subordinating themselves to the US (whether by tariffs, force, subversion, etc.) would result in Trump 2.0 obtaining influence over their energy exports and trade ties, which could be weaponized to pressure China. What the US wants from China is for it to agree to a lopsided trade deal that would then be replicated with the EU and the US; other partners for, as the new 2025 National Security Strategy states, "rebalanc[ing] China's economy towards household consumption".

The implied goal is to coerce China into correcting its overproduction, which is responsible for its unprecedented global exports that displaced the West's leading role in world trade and led to enormous influence over the Global South, thus restoring the West's global market share and influence. Such a radical policy change would have major economic and therefore political repercussions that could destabilize China, not to mention ending its superpower rise, so it wouldn’t be done voluntarily.

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