Senate Elections 2012
2012 United States Senate elections to be held November 6, 2012 includes Republican, Democrat and Independent candidates vying for six-year terms and a seat in the 113th Congress. Democrats need to defend 21 seats and Republicans need only to defend 10 seats. Two seats held by Independents are up for election and lean Democrat, Bernie Sanders seeks re-election and Joe Lieberman is retiring.
Democrats' majority status and Harry Reid's Senate leadership are at stake. Democrats are growing uncomfortable as they decline to endorse Obama's shift on gay marriage. "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid predicted Thursday the Democratic Party would adopt a pro-gay marriage plank in its platform." [1]
The RealClearPolitics website forecasts a 46-46 tie with 8 toss-up seats, but that includes a questionable claim that Democrats will likely hold on to the New Mexico seat. In these key states, most of which are listed as "toss-up" or even leaning Democrat, the Democrat candidate will probably not win unless he garners more votes than Obama in the state:
- Montana (Rehberg-R v. Tester-D)
- Missouri (Republican v. McCaskill-D)
- Florida
- Nevada
- New Mexico
- Ohio
- Wisconsin
Senate Contests
* Arizona
Republican Jon Kyl is retiring. Richard Carmona [D], Jeff Flake [R], Wil Cardon [R] are running. Flake is endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund.
* California
Democrat Dianne Feinstein is the incumbent. She will face Republican Elizabeth Emken
* Connecticut
Independent Joe Lieberman is retiring. Six Democrats including Chris Murphy and five Republicans have declared including Linda McMahon. McMahon leads Republican candidate Chris Shays, endorsed by Karl Rove, by a whopping 29% and is 3% behind likely Democrat nominee Chris Murphy.
* Delaware
Democrat Tom Carper is the incumbent. Businessman Kevin Wade is the Republican candidate.
* Florida
Democrat Bill Nelson is the incumbent. George LeMieux [R], Mike McCalister [R] and Connie Mack [R]. April polling showed Nelson with a double digit lead.
* Hawaii
Democrat Daniel Akaka is retiring. Ed Case [D], Mazie Hirono [D], John Carroll [R], John Roco [R], and former Governor Linda Lingle.
* Indiana
Tea Party-backed Republican Richard Mourdock will face Democrat Joe Donnelly after defeating 35-year incumbent Republican Richard Lugar.
* Maine
Republican Olympia Snowe is retiring. Benjamin Pollard [D], Cynthia Dill [D], Jon Hinck [D], Matt Dunlap [D], Andrew Ian Dodge [I], Bill Schneider [R], Bruce Poliquin [R], Charlie Summers [R], Deb Plowman [R], Rick Bennett [R], Scott D’Amboise [R] including former Gov. Angus King [I]. Polling predicts King will be the victor.
* Maryland
Democrat Ben Cardin is the incumbent. He will face former Secret Service agent and Republican Dan Bongino.
* Massachusetts
Republican Scott Brown is the incumbent. Three Democrats running and socialist Elizabeth Warren is the expected challenger. Polling has this race in a tie.
* Michigan
Democrat Debbie Stabenow is the incumbent. Nine Republican challengers including Pete Hoekstra.
* Minnesota
Democrat Amy Klobuchar is the incumbent. Two Democrat and three Republican candidates have declared.
* Mississippi
Republican Roger Wicker is the incumbent. He will face Democrat Albert N. Gore.
* Missouri
Democrat Claire McCaskill is the incumbent. Four Republicans have declared. McCaskill trails in the polls to all four of the leading GOP hopefuls. [1]
* Montana
Democrat Jon Tester is the incumbent. He will face Republican Denny Rehberg. June 2012 polling has Rehberg holding a 2-point lead.
* Nebraska
Democrat Ben Nelson is retiring. Pro-life Deb Fischer defeated RINO Jon Bruning for the Republican nomination; and will face including Democrat Bob Kerrey.
* Nevada
Republican Dean Heller was appointed in 2011 to replace John Ensign and is considered the incumbent. Barry Ellsworth [D], Nancy Price [D], Shelley Berkley [D] have declared. May 2012 polling has Heller with a 11 point lead.
* New Jersey
Democrat Bob Menendez is the incumbent. He will face Republican Joe Kyrillos .
* New Mexico
Democrat Jeff Bingaman is retiring. Republican Heather Wilson will face Democrat Martin Heinrich.
* New York
Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand is the incumbent. Republican Rep. Bob Turner has declared.
* North Dakota
Democrat Kent Conrad is retiring. 2 Republican, 2 Democrats declared.
* Ohio
Democrat Sherrod Brown is the incumbent. He will face Republican Josh Mandel. Mandel has the backing of Senator Jim Demint. Brown has the backing of George Soros, the SEIU and the former ACORN.
* Pennsylvania
Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. is the incumbent. 7 Republicans declared. Fake Pro-life Casey Jr. is a strong defender of Obama and Harry Reid.
* Rhode Island
Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse is the incumbent. Republican Barry Hinckley the challenger.
* Tennessee
Republican Bob Corker is the incumbent. 3 Republicans have declared.
* Texas
Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison is retiring. 9 Republicans including Tea party backed Ted Cruz, Addie Allen [D], Grady Yarbrough [D], Paul Sadler [D], Sean Hubbard [D].
* Utah
Republican Orrin Hatch is the incumbent. Dan Liljenquist [R] is the primary challenger, supported by FreedomWorks & Michelle Malkin. Pete Ashdown is the Democrat challenger. June 2012 polling has Hatch the primary winner with 50% of the vote.
* Vermont
Independent Bernie Sanders is the incumbent. John MacGovern [R] is the Republican challenger.
* Virginia
Democrat Jim Webb is retiring. Democrat Tim Kaine will face Republican George Allen. Polling has this race tied and may come down to which presidential candidate carries Virginia in November.
* Washington
Democrat Maria Cantwell is the incumbent. Art Coday [R], Michael Baumgartner are the Republican challengers.
* West Virginia
Democrat Joe Manchin is the incumbent. He will face Republican John Raese. Barack Obama polls so poorly in this state that Manchin refuses to say who he'll vote for President. [2]
* Wisconsin
Democrat Herb Kohl is retiring. Tammy Baldwin is the declared Democrat and four Republicans including Senate Conservatives Fund endorsement of Mark Neumann and former Governor Tommy Thompson. May 2012 election polling has Thompson winning 50% of the vote over Baldwin. [3]
* Wyoming
Republican John Barrasso is the incumbent.
States without a Senate race in 2012
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, N. Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, S. Carolina, s. Dakaota, Vermont.