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Is Ukraine About To SURRENDER?

Is Ukraine About To SURRENDER? by Steve Turley.

Dmytro Kuleba, head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "I think the Russian ability to launch a major offensive will probably be restored sometime in late January or February. But that's what they're trying to do and what we're trying to prevent. That is, I am not saying that it will definitely happen. But in the best-case scenario, taking into account the mobilization, the conscription that they announced, the training of new conscripts and the movement of their heavy weapons around the country—they clearly hold out hope that they will be able to break through our defenses and advance deeper into Ukraine."[1]

So is about mid-February what military analysts are predicting as far as a major Russian offensive?

I do realize that Russia is going to be tight lipped about when they will attack. Conservative (talk) 22:05, December 27, 2022 (EST)

Right now, Russia wants to keep bleeding NATO and the West, both of weapons and economically. The only peace with Ukraine will be on Russia's terms - full recognition of the border changes, one step closer to gaining full international recognition. But the hybrid war with NATO would continue. So the question of Ukraine is secondary. RobSGive Peace a chance 22:50, December 27, 2022 (EST)
This latest round of demoralizing talk is probably the result of Zelensky's rather dire Christmas message and loss of hope:
"Unfortunately, all the holidays have a bitter aftertaste for us this year. And we can feel the traditional Spirit of Christmas differently. Dinner at the family table cannot be so tasty and warm. There may be empty chairs around it. Our houses and streets can't be so bright. And Christmas bells can ring not so loudly and inspiringly. Through air raid sirens, or even worse – gunshots and explosions. And all this together can pose a bigger threat. It is a disappointment. Of the higher forces and their power, of goodness and justice in the world. Loss of hope. Loss of love. Loss of myself."
RobSGive Peace a chance 00:07, December 28, 2022 (EST)
Dima of the Military Summary channel, probably the best daily commentator on Youtube, said the Russians can drag the Ukraine fighting out until 2024 - 6 mos before the next presidential election - so long as the leaders of NATO, the United States, and EU continue to insist on the path of economic and military suicide they have chosen. RobSGive Peace a chance 00:17, December 28, 2022 (EST)

Betteridge's law of headlines, my man. If a ceasefire was declared tomorrow, Russia would need five years, give or take, just to restore the "properly"-trained combat power it had at the start of the war. ("Properly" gets scare quotes for obvious reasons.) No amount of mobilisation is going to fix their current predicament: Russian soldiers receive the vast bulk of their training after being assigned to a unit, and almost all Russia's trained, combat-ready formations have already been thrown into the fight and received the mauling they deserved.

What's left of the original land forces is a kind of bloody & battered skeleton and each new wave of mobiks is just providing the illusion of there being some real honest-to-goodness meat on dem bones.

Dig a trench? Sure. Man a trench? Sure, as long the fighting doesn't get too intense. Over the top and charge the Ukrainians? Sure, as long as there's someone threatening to shoot you if you don't and you don't decide to shoot them first. Basic manoeuvre capable of achieving local tactical gains? Perhaps, if you're lucky. Recognisable combined-arms manoeuvre capable of achieving meaningful strategic objectives? Forget about it. ConwayIII (talk) 20:14, December 29, 2022 (EST)

Yah yah yah we know we know. You believe Kyiv/CIA propaganda on Russian casualties, hook, line, and sinker. You also believe in the Ghost of Kyiv, that the Russians committed the Bucca massacre, that Ukraine is a democracy, that Putin blew up Nordstroms, that the Russians attacked Poland, the tooth fairy, Santa Clause, and the Easter Bunny. I'm amazed you sign your name to it. RobSGive Peace a chance 20:40, December 29, 2022 (EST)
In retrospect, it was probably wishful thinking that Ukraine would maybe have to surrender soon (like say in 4-6 months). Maybe the USA will ramp up support to Ukraine enough to beat back Russia escalation. In the end, I think the Russians will retain much of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Dragging the war on will just wreck Ukraine further, cause more world hunger, and cause more loss of life.
As far as ConwayIII's comment: "Sure, as long as there's someone threatening to shoot you if you don't and you don't decide to shoot them first." The Soviets forced their soldiers to go through some meat grinders on the Eastern Front in WWII and they won against the Nazis. Here is a relevant quote: "Thou hast not to like it-thou hast just to do it." - Richard Marcinko (U.S. Navy SEAL commander and Vietnam War veteran. He was the first commanding officer of SEAL Team Six), quoted from his book Leadership Secrets of the Rogue Warrior: A Commando's Guide to Success, Atria, June 1, 1996.[2] Conservative (talk) 04:00, December 30, 2022 (EST)
NATO and the US are close to the end of being able to ratchet up the war any farther, short of direct intervention. Even at that, Germany for example has only 2 days stockpiles of artillery shells for its own defense, and its Puma tank (the most expensive armored vehicle on the planet) is a non-operating boondoggle. Ukraine KIA is already 50% larger than the entire land forces of the UK.
Short of boots on the ground, we're rapidly reaching the point where the only Wunderwaffen left for the US is nukes. And the US doctrine of Nuclear Primacy adopted under Obama disposes of Mutual Assured Destruction, meaning US doctrine now thinks it can do a nuclear first strike and survive or "win". The other problem with boots on the ground is, NATO can't win that war, either.
(Ukraine started the war with 240,000 soldiers - larger than Germany and France combined; after several mobilizations, it now has about 400,000 casualties, that is dead or unable to return to combat. The average KIA in recent weeks is 40 years old. Its forces remaining are estimated at about 200,000 (I think that figure may be a bit low). What Conway thinks about Russia, based on his exposure to the Kyiv and Western propaganda war, is actually what has happened to the AFU).
So whatever the outcome of Ukraine is (meaning how long the Zelensky regime lasts), the West and Russia are locked into an arms race for the foreseeable future. Russia has been preparing for "the big one" since the Maidan coup in 2014, and recently has implemented other major reforms and restructuring of its military. Russian munitions plants have been running 24/7 for most of 2022, while Europe and Germany de-industrialize. The U.S. has neither the industrial base nor an educated workforce to work in industrial plants.
And we haven't even touched on the military-industrial complexes that exist in Iran and China, either.
The Ukraine war was a psychotic dream cooked up by globalist idiots in the West that will either end in nuclear destruction, or total impoverishment of the collective West. RobSGive Peace a chance 04:17, December 30, 2022 (EST)
This disaster is the failure of a generation of Western leadership - either elected at the ballot box or the puppets of Western oligarchs. They started a war without enough bullets and artillery shells, and do not know the difference between an officer and an enlisted man. They have no regard for the lives of ordinary people. But these are the people running the United States, the European Union, and NATO. No sane person anywhere on the planet wants anything to do with these people or their collective mindset. RobSGive Peace a chance 05:05, December 30, 2022 (EST)
A picture is worth a thousand words.
Man, if you keep lying this fluently, you'll have to come out as a gay Black-Caucasian Jew and run for Congress. Kreminna and Svatove say hi, btw. ConwayIII (talk) 22:19, December 30, 2022 (EST)
Kreminiya? You mean the northern meatgrinder? What you haven't realized yet (probably cause you got your head so far up the Western propaganda apparatus culo) is Ukraine has no reserves left. Occupying the vacated territories around Kharkov and Kherson were so costly, they have nothing left. Ukraine is attempting its 9th mobilization now. They emptied the prisons in March. There's literally no one left (granted, Ukraine is alleged to have a "hidden army" of 200,000 railway workers who keep repairing the tracks; but once they are sent to front, how you gonna deliver troops and/or NATO weapons to the front? Don't be surprised if this does happen, given Zelensky's penchant for following the Hitler playbook). RobSGive Peace a chance 01:53, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Gotta love Western propaganda and Kyiv strategic thinking; after the glorious victory in retaking Kherson, Ukraine is now evacuating and abandoning the city cause of Russian shelling from across the river. Brilliant move, and what a waste of time, manpower and lives that could have been used elsewhere. RobSGive Peace a chance 01:58, January 1, 2023 (EST)

The United States abandoned the South Vietmanese and the Afghans when the going got rough. I don't think either country was committed to democracy. Things are going to get rougher in Ukraine and Ukraine is a corrupt and authoritarian country that is a hybrid regime and not a true democracy.[3] Anyone see a pattern here? Conservative (talk) 01:31, December 31, 2022 (EST)

If you seriously think there are any grounds for Russian optimism re. the French and US experiences in Vietnam, or re. the Soviet and US experiences in Afghanistan, then I've got some magic beans I'm very keen to sell you at very reasonable rates.
As for corruption in Ukraine, that's precisely why clear majorities of Ukrainians have voted on multiple occasions for presidents / parties promising a move towards Europe and away from the Russian sphere of influence.
We're agreed Russia is notoriously corrupt. It should be blindingly obvious that corruption will infect neighbouring countries which permit any significant degree of Russian influence over their domestic politics / economy. You can not, on the one hand, insist Ukraine clean up its act before you deem it worthy of support, and then insist it remain bound to the primary corrupting influence, on the other.
You might as well demand someone wean themselves off heroin, whilst also stipulating they remain married to the dealer who's committed to keep feeding them the stuff. ConwayIII (talk) 12:56, December 31, 2022 (EST)
Oh, so Ukraine wants to move toward the less corrupt EU where its leaders don't even know the difference between an officer and an enlisted man, depend on Nazis, and throw lives away in a hopeless cause for "democracy" and gay rights. Nice to know. RobSGive Peace a chance 17:53, December 31, 2022 (EST)
The website Cultural Front notes:
"In chapter 6 of Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell highlights cultural legacies. He opens with disturbing descriptions of how longstanding cultural patterns and beliefs influenced violent conflicts among generations of families in Kentucky during the 19th century.
The compelling research findings concerning long-term and deeply held values led Gladwell to the conclusion that cultural legacies are powerful forces. They have deep roots and long lives. They persist, generation after generation, virtually intact, even as the economic and social demographic conditions that spawned them have vanished, and they play such a role in directing attitudes and behavior that we cannot make sense of our world without them. He goes on to note the possibilities of “taking cultural legacies seriously” in order to learn “why people succeed and how to make people better.”[4]
If you think Ukraine is going to shrug off its culture of corruption anytime soon, you are sadly mistaken. The United States should get off the "nation building" and "culture building" wagon ASAP and stop wasting USA taxpayer money. Conservative (talk) 13:14, December 31, 2022 (EST)
Russia targets Ukraine with another "massive" missile barrage aimed at infrastructure.[5] Could UKRAINE go bankrupt and LOSE the WAR?[6] Europe's Energy Nightmare Has Only Just Begun.[7] Reuters: New Fed research flags rising risk of U.S. recession.[8]
Meanwhile, Ukraine fatigue is rising in the West and we haven't even hit the depths of winter in Europe.
If you haven't noticed ConwayIII, the going is getting rougher. Conservative (talk) 13:26, December 31, 2022 (EST)
Things are, in fact, shaping up nicely. The first proper cold blast of the winter will have the ground frozen solid on the Kreminna-Svatove line by the start of next week. That'll give the Ukrainians much more scope for manoeuvre and they'll be rolling straight over the forward positions of a bunch of badly-frostbitten mobiks up & down the line. It'll be an extremely interesting test of current Russian morale & unit cohesion / coordination.
Elsewhere, Russian logistics hubs and unit HQs have been taking a pounding across the south of the country in a play-by-play recreation of the shaping operations that proved so successful previously. I think we'll see the land bridge to Crimea severed (or severely compromised) before the winter is out.
And to cap it all, Bradley AFVs are now on the table, along with French AMX-10RCs. I don't know if that'll be sufficient to persuade Scholz to release the Leopards, but they'll still be a welcome (and very capable) boost for the late spring / summer offensives. Good times. ConwayIII (talk) 18:58, January 4, 2023 (EST)
Well good. If you're right, remind me to add it to Conservapedia proven right; if not, we'll call it more globalist peeing in the wind (footnote to idiots: you should always stand with your back to the wind, and not into the wind like EU Russia sanctions) . RobSGive Peace a chance 19:10, January 4, 2023 (EST)
As to your predictions about the land bridge, evidently you didn't get the reports about Ukraine transferring men from the Zaporozhye line to the meatgrinder - so they are no more. Ukraine has no manpower reserves left, and Russia is has only deployed half of 300,000 mobilized in to Ukraine. RobSGive Peace a chance 19:15, January 4, 2023 (EST)
Oh, my sweet summer child. You're not supposed to actually drink the Kool-Aid. ConwayIII (talk) 19:25, January 4, 2023 (EST)
Reports indicate Ukraine's only prayer is NATO boots on the ground. RobSGive Peace a chance 19:36, January 4, 2023 (EST)
Hahaha. "Reports" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there, my man. For reference, the voices in your head don't count, nor does your own fan fiction. ConwayIII (talk) 18:55, January 5, 2023 (EST)
You gotta see this guy, and seriously, he's pro-Ukraine RobSGive Peace a chance 20:02, January 5, 2023 (EST)
Update: Russian breakthrough at Soledar to the north of Bakhmut; Putin declares 36 hour ceasefire for Orthodox Santa Clause. Will the Kyiv regime use the 36 hours to fill the gap, or will they use it to continue artillery attacks on civilians? RobSGive Peace a chance 20:47, January 6, 2023 (EST)
Update: Looks like the Ukies are withdrawing from the Kremminya-Svatova line and heading south. There's no railroads for logistical support, and they aren't getting any support from the local population. So when the big Russian offensive begins, that leaves Kremminya in the north, as well as the Zaporozhye line in the south as good starting point (or both, and maybe even a western offensive from Belarus). So that pretty well kills off the idea of Zuluzhny's March to the Azov Sea or a northern offensive. And all those French and American 1970s armored vehicles won't make any difference, just allow both Russian and American arms manufacturers to update their stockpiles (which the Russians have a running start on, while it'll take the US 3 years at about 8 times the cost to upgrade).
So as 2023 begins, Western and American strategic thinkers and propagandists still get a failing grade. In 3 months, when Blinken and Sullivan try pivoting from opposing Donbas separatists right of self determination to supporting Taiwan separatists and violating China's territorial integrity, that ought to be good for a few more laughs for the whole summer. RobSGive Peace a chance 03:38, January 7, 2023 (EST)
Someone wanted to drown out the Makiivka noise, so they threw some of the surviving VDV units from Kherson at Soledar. It got the pro-RU / nationalist channels very excited for a bit, but the attack stalled about halfway into the town. They've stopped whingeing about Makiivka, so mission accomplished, I suppose.
In other news, no-one's leaving the Kreminna-Svatove line until they've collected the free mobik popsicles your boys are currently making in the trenches. Fully solid ground incoming. ConwayIII (talk) 21:10, January 7, 2023 (EST)

The Ukraine population was 43.79 million in 2021. The Russian population was 143.4 million in 2021. So the Russian population is about 3 times as big as the Ukrainian population.

The Russian-Ukraine War is largely a stalemate now. But the Russians are expected to do a major offensive within 60 days due to sending in more troops to Ukraine recently.

The Israeli army has beaten armies 10 times their size (See: Why is the ISRAELI ARMY so POWERFUL? - VisualPolitik EN).

There is excellent evidence that God helped Israel during the Six Day War (See: GOD'S HAND IN THE SIX DAY WAR and Did God Help Israel During The Six Day War? and Six Days of Miracles and Fmr Israeli Commander: God Protected us in Battle.

Perhaps, the reason why the Ukrainian/Russian armies are not as good as the Israeli army is that God is not on their side! The Ukrainians and Russians are very corrupt!

For additional information, please see: The Ukrainian army, the Russian Army, and the Israel army. Why is the Israel army so outstanding? Conservative (talk) 22:25, January 7, 2023 (EST)

Just stick with fantasy football, it's less complicated and more fun. RobSGive Peace a chance 03:12, January 8, 2023 (EST)
Among Republican conservatives, the ugly whores Ukraine/Russia will never be as popular as the prom queens Israel and Taiwan! Conservative (talk) 06:46, January 8, 2023 (EST)

Ukraine fatigue is hitting Europe. The writing is on the hotel walls

Ukrainian refugees must start paying for meals or face eviction. Minister warns of ‘significant pressures’ this spring as hotels set to return to accommodating tourists again.[9]

I told you that Europe and the USA will tire of supporting Ukrainians, but you just wouldn't listen.

The South Vietmanese and Afghans both know that the West can tire of supporting foreign causes when the going gets rough and be fairweather friends. Conservative (talk) 13:37, December 31, 2022 (EST)

There won't be much of a tourist season with inflation and the decline in living standards given the course Europe set itself on by surrendering their sovereignty to the United States. RobSGive Peace a chance 17:57, December 31, 2022 (EST)
International Monetary Fund: "Almost 8 million refugees have fled Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February, Europe's largest refugee wave since World War II, with the majority of those now in the European Union. These figures will increase depending on the war's duration and severity."[10]
The International Monetary Fund says: "Europe Could Do Even More to Support Ukrainian Refugees".
Putin is going to help Europe do more - even if they don't want to! And there may come a time when Ukraine fatigue hits a tipping point in Europe. Conservative (talk) 06:39, January 1, 2023 (EST)
This is a rather hazy, undefined term: "Ukraine fatigue". It seems to be an Americanism referring to TV viewers and MSM news channel ratings. It's easy to say, provided America has no skin in the game regarding boots on the ground. Can you imagine if "Pearl Harbor fatigue" or "Hitler fatigue" set in 10 months into WWII?
Sure, we'd all like to get on with our lives. But fascist propaganda won't deter us. RobSGive Peace a chance 19:41, January 4, 2023 (EST)

Russia's only aircraft carrier (which stinks) was on fire - again! USA! USA! USA!

Russia's flagship aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, caught fire again. The fire broke out when the ship was docked at the Zvyozdochka shipyard in Murmansk for repair. The Russia-owned United Shipbuilding Corporation, which is overseeing a major refit, said that the blaze was quickly extinguished and caused no casualties. Admiral Kuznetsov is Russia’s only aircraft carrier and has been out of service and in dry dock for repairs since 2018. Delays and accidents have marred Admiral Kuznetsov's ongoing overhaul. Watch this video to know more.

[[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]]

I trust this clarifies things! Conservative (talk) 22:06, December 31, 2022 (EST)

What's to get excited about? It's a casus belli. Russia doesn't need any aircraft carriers, anyway.
When you get nuked cause some American-backed sabotage group started the fire, you won't be gloating.
A single Sarmat, which America is defenseless against, can destroy the state of Texas (where Raytheon is located), but Russian officials last month reminded everyone New York state can be wiped out in 20 minutes. So we have some idea of their first targets. RobSGive Peace a chance 22:12, December 31, 2022 (EST)
You know, the term Blitzkrieg is not a military term. It was a term invented by the Propaganda Ministry of Joseph Goebbels to sell the idea of invincibility in a lightening war. The Russians never fell for it. But you seem to fall for any and all of the latest propaganda blitzkriegs in this war. RobSGive Peace a chance 22:19, December 31, 2022 (EST)
Now let's suppose for a moment the fire(s) were the result of accidents, and not a casus belli; how do you suppose the Russians are going to handle it? Will they admit to their public, "Hey, we have incompetents and sloppiness working for national security", or will they use it to (falsely, as NATO does) accuse the West to rally support for domestic propaganda purposes? (In fact, setting on fire a useless and unusable boondoggle from the Cold War era probably is a false flag event for domestic propaganda.) The more you speak, the more apparent it becomes the less you know and understand, other than being a clapping seal for Western propaganda. RobSGive Peace a chance 22:37, December 31, 2022 (EST)
Nuclear bombs haven't been used in 77 years. Given the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD), they are largely only useful to prevent a country from being attacked on its homeland. Conservative (talk) 22:47, December 31, 2022 (EST)
The doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction was thrown out by the Obama/Biden Administration in 2014, and re-iterated by Jake Sullivan in the National Defense Strategy (NDS) in April 2022 of this year. According to the Arms Control Association,
Biden Policy Allows First Use of Nuclear Weapons, April 2022.
U.S. policy makers now believe they can initiate a first nuclear strike and survive, and "win" a nuclear war with Russia, perhaps with 150 million Americans surviving.
This explains all American actions since Victoria Nuland organized the Maidan coup in 2014, and Vladimir Putin's reaction to it since. Both sides have been preparing for "the big one."
You been spending too much time listening to NATO/CIA propaganda since 2014, and particularly since February 2022. RobSGive Peace a chance 23:27, December 31, 2022 (EST)
So let's examine the list of other casus belli (Acts of War) legitimizing a nuclear first strike by Russia on the United States:
The psychotic stare of a sociopath who believes America can initiate and survive a nuclear war.
  1. Biden's statement, "My God this man cannot remain in power",
  2. Lindsey Graham's recent statement to "take out" Putin;
  3. David Petraeus threat of a "decapitation strike";
  4. setting up government's-in-exile for Belarus and Russia;
  5. destruction of the Nordstream pipeline;
  6. attack on the Kerch Strait bridge;
  7. funding and training Nazi groups in Ukraine;
  8. weapons shipments and funding to the illegitimate Kyiv regime;
  9. biological weapons labs on the territory of Ukraine and using human beings as guinea pigs;
  10. terrorist attacks and sabotage on the territory of the Russian Federation;
  11. the terrorist assassination of a Russian citizen, Darya Dugina, in the nation's capital.
Need I go on? You can thank God and Vladimir Putin that America has not been nuked, yet. RobSGive Peace a chance 00:06, January 1, 2023 (EST)

RobS, you wrote: "U.S. policy makers now believe they can initiate a first nuclear strike and survive, and "win" a nuclear war with Russia, perhaps with 150 million Americans surviving."

This statement is not true at an emotional level. Why? Because every Democrat lacks machismo! The Biden Administration fears Putin's nukes due to the risk of escalation and Putin fears the USA's nukes due to the risk of escaluation. In short, MAD (Mutually assured destruction). Conservative (talk) 01:02, January 1, 2023 (EST)

MAD was abandoned with the INF and ABM treaties, and NATO expansion. With technological developments since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US has developed a cruise missile that can deliver a nuclear bomb that has made some Washington "strategists" believe the US can initiate and survive a nuclear war. The Doctrine of Nuclear Primacy officially has replaced MAD in American thinking.RobSGive Peace a chance 01:22, January 1, 2023 (EST)
America has superior demographics to Russia in terms of its age structure. See: Demographics in the developed world. Russia will not be able to compete against the USA in the future in terms of being a stronger major power. Conservative (talk) 01:45, January 1, 2023 (EST)
It doesn't need to compete. America is self-destructing from within. Russia is catching it's second wind since it reformed itself and threw off communism; and they've been wizened by the experience of learning that they cannot trust the West in anything. RobSGive Peace a chance 02:16, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Russia is the Hindenburg of the 21st century due to its age demographics, corruption/authoritarianism (see: [[Essay: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian]]) and losing some of its most profitable oil/gas markets in terms of its profit margins in the future (A future GOP president will rev up oil and gas production and Europe will make attempts to wean itself off of Russian oil/gas), but it will remain a major power for possibly many years. Conservative (talk) 02:33, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Russia will go out swinging (Ukraine, etc.), but its age demographics (which is among the worst in the world in terms of an aging population), alcoholism problems, heroin addiction, etc will cause cultural collapse in Russia in the 21st century.[11] Conservative (talk) 02:48, January 1, 2023 (EST)
(ec) Profitable oil and gas markets? those markets are losing their value daily, and aren't likely to recover ever as long as they follow NATO and the CIA invention, the European Union.
You should look out the window. Evidently you haven't noticed the world is changing.
There are certain pivotal years in history where the world you once thought you knew, changed forever. 1789, 1815, 1848, 1914, 1939, 1968, 1986. Since covid, and definitely since last year, 2022 is on a par with those major pivotal years where the entire international order was restructured, like 1815, 1919, and 1945. The post-post war 1945 post cold war era is upon us. It needs a name. Howabout the Multipolar era for starters (sounds better than the Second Cold War, since all that has gone before now is on the ash heap of history).
The NATO/globalist plan to set up Sodom and Gomorrah East is doomed to fail. RobSGive Peace a chance 02:50, January 1, 2023 (EST)
It's a new era, where World War II is forgotten, and children are raised to believe Nazis are heroes. RobSGive Peace a chance 02:55, January 1, 2023 (EST)
If I had my druthers, I'd be on board with the foreign policy of Gen. Michael Flynn and Donald Trump - to make an ally out of Russia to counterbalance Iran and China. But the deep state had other plans to take on all three, and sabotaged those efforts. RobSGive Peace a chance 03:12, January 1, 2023 (EST)

China is going to be toast in the 21st century soon because it has the fastest aging population in the world thanks in part to its former one-child policy.[12] Conservative (talk) 03:17, January 1, 2023 (EST)

You know, virtually all these demographic weaknesses you point out in other countries can be applied to the United States. Immigration, which many people criticize, is the only thing that has kept American population growth stable (stepping over the moral problem of abortion having exterminated 40 million of America's natural increase). Then the claim that, "In the year 2050 bla bla bla", as if it were fact, conveniently ignores things like war, nuclear war, pandemics, or even Chrisitan revival. RobSGive Peace a chance 03:27, January 1, 2023 (EST)
The USA and New Zealand have the best age demographics in the economically developed world (See: Demographics Part 3: The Xer Cut).Conservative (talk) 03:34, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Oh yah? How many of them are the 10 million of working age that entered the United States illegally since Biden opened the borders, which will (a) drive down wage rates and living standards for "the best demographics" and (b) increase taxes for "the best demographics" to support 10 million illegal immigrants? RobSGive Peace a chance 03:50, January 1, 2023 (EST)
I have a feeling that you didn't watch Peter Zeihan's demography series. Conservative (talk) 04:00, January 1, 2023 (EST)
I had my fill of Russophobia 50 years ago as a student of WWII. I can smell it anywhere. RobSGive Peace a chance 04:13, January 1, 2023 (EST)

I certainly do not fear Russia in terms of my future. While the angry Russian bear will maul Ukraine, its past 70 years of atheistic rule under the Soviet Union damaged its fertility rate and probably increased in alcoholism rate (See: Atheism and fertility rates and Atheism and alcoholism). It's very hard for nations to increase their fertility rates - especially when they fall below a certain level. I don't see Russia reversing things in terms of fertility rate. While there is a small chance that the angry Russian bear will cause a nuclear war, I don't see this happening due to the risk of escalation causing mutually assured destruction. Russia/West will be very reluctant to go down this path. Conservative (talk) 04:26, January 1, 2023 (EST)

It's very hard for a country to increase its fertility rate once it falls below a certain level (See: Pro-Natal Policies Work, But They Come With a Hefty Price Tag). Conservative (talk) 04:35, January 1, 2023 (EST)
DPA roundtable discussion today: Aging population problem is not as bad as the Propaganda problem (5 mins).
Rob's impression: evidently there's another round of NATO/CIA/MSM propaganda out there on Russian demographics that User:Cons and the 8 members in the roundtable are commenting on. I don't know, I typically don't fill my head with MSM bs. RobSGive Peace a chance 04:35, January 1, 2023 (EST)
The roundtable discussion people made no empirical case. They are wrong. Russia is going to have to pay a very steep price for its fertility rate problem. Conservative (talk) 04:38, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Well, the Russian people are ready. If you think you can nuke Russia, and 150 million Americans survive, bring it on. NATO and the US are an existential threat to Russian national security. Biden, Blinken, Stoltenberg, Austin, Sullivan, von der Leyen, BoJo, Petraeus, and Lindsey Graham have made that absolutely clear to everyone in Russia and the West. Whereas Russia is not now, nor has been since 1991, a threat to America or NATO. RobSGive Peace a chance 04:49, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Oh, I get it. "Russia is a threat to its neighbors," like Estonia, a country of less than 2 million with 1/3 Russians born in Estonia who are denied voting rights in a "democratic" NATO & EU country. Only problem is, Russia had no plans to invade to protect Russians. RobSGive Peace a chance 04:57, January 1, 2023 (EST)
This guy is worth listening to. He typically does a late night update of about 24 minutes. He does an over an hour broadcast here. He basically is anti-Russian anti-Putin, and sympathizes with the Ukrainian people, but is highly critical of the corrupt Zelensky regime and its incompetent military leadership. He reads Ukrainian and Russian sources daily and reports on things that you will not find elsewhere. He has a very good understanding of economics, global economics, and military strategy.
Ukraine military situation Dec 31, 2022: review of 2022 and forecast for 2023, listen to this broadcast, and you decide if he's credible or worth following. RobSGive Peace a chance 05:28, January 1, 2023 (EST)
I've been told by other commenters that he's in Poland; he is obviously an intelligence operative, but not likely CIA (he's not an idiot). Possibly Polish intelligence. RobSGive Peace a chance 05:36, January 1, 2023 (EST)

First Russia's only aircraft carrier goes on fire again and now this! God is smiting Putin!

European gas prices have dipped to a level last seen before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, after warmer weather across the continent eased concerns over shortages.[13]

Who controls the weather? God!!! See: SIX BIBLE PASSAGES OF GOD CONTROLLING THE WEATHER.

God is smiting Putin! He should be reading his Bible more often! If he had, he might have read the Bible passage about turning the other cheek and not be launching missiles into Ukraine's cities!

By the way, attendance at Russian Orthodox church services in Russia has dropped to around one percent. Conservative (talk) 06:08, January 1, 2023 (EST)

Sorry, but I don't quite connect the dots between Europe falling into recession with lower gas prices that Russia does not sell or benefit from, and God smiting Putin. RobSGive Peace a chance 08:31, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Oh, and nice propaganda ploy. You're talking about LNG, not pump prices (which the Brits call petrol). You have a ways to go yet, my friend, to be considered a credible propagandist. RobSGive Peace a chance 08:41, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Time for an alternative view:
With major Studios stopping the release of their films in Russian theaters, additionally online services from Netflix, Discovery, Warner media and Amazon were discontinued. The boycott was viewed as a significant setback for the Russian cinema industry. But God had different plans for them. Major venues brought back old Soviet films on the big screen. It was presumed that if Hollywood boycotted Russia, common Russian citizens would turn against their leader and an anti-government movement will start to emerge. However the completely reverse has happened. Apparently Russians have shown an intensified love for Russian culture and cinema, and they have also shown that they stand firmly with their leader in these tough times. This abrupt respite from Western entertainment, which has essentially taken over the market, felt like a much needed and well-deserved break for many Russians. [14]
Sure, you stop filling people's minds with poison, and eventually they sober up.
The release of Scorching Sunlight on my Rumble channel, a more than 2 hour drama about the origins of war, has 3300 views so far.
Yep. A break from Western media is a breath of fresh air. RobSGive Peace a chance 09:19, January 1, 2023 (EST)

War in Ukraine: Germanic efficiency. Russian patriotism and resiliency

The Germans are well-known for their efficiency. And Russians are known for their patriotism[15] and resiliency[16]. In WWII, the Germans learned how patriotic and resilient the Russians can be.

Will the Germans be able to hang tough as far as their support for Ukraine?

Behold! A resilient Germany is weathering the energy crunch.

"German industry and society are once again proving much more resilient and adaptable than certain people feared. Horror scenarios of a dangerous energy rationing or a massive slump in our economy have often been bandied about. But we are nowhere near that. With a challenging year just behind us, this is good news — not only for Germany, but also for Europe.

Companies and households reacted swiftly to the sharp increases in energy prices. They installed more efficient heating or production facilities, switched to alternatives and imported intermediate products. The results are encouraging...

...Germany can weather this crisis without a collapse in industrial production."[17]

I had doubts that the Germans would be able to achieve this.

But they probably are paying a price in air quality since gas is cleaner than coal. Global coal consumption reached a record high of over 8 billion tonnes this year, with Germany one of the highest with a 19% rise, or 26 million tonnes, versus 2021, the IEA said.[18]

I predict that Russian patriotism and resiliency will help cause the Russians to hang tough and they will retain part of their territorial gains in Ukraine. Conservative (talk) 03:28, January 5, 2023 (EST)

So we know what the German government and globalist propaganda organs say about this. What about the German people, i.e. the real "Germany"? RobSGive Peace a chance 03:25, January 5, 2023 (EST)
I edited/updated my previous post. Conservative (talk) 03:31, January 5, 2023 (EST)
Alexander Mercouris of The Duran identifies the Financial Times (and The Economist) as two of the key major globalist mouthpieces. Whatever they utter is soon echoed by the World Economic Forum, the U.S. State Department, the UK government, the EU and other Western MSM propaganda organs. RobSGive Peace a chance 03:49, January 5, 2023 (EST)
Steve Bannon, a Trump loyalist, former Trump strategist and ardent supporter of nationalism/populism, is a regular reader of the Financial Times which he admitted in an interview.[19] I am not a regular reader of the Financial Times, but the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times both have some good information in them despite their ideological leanings.
Also, the Fallacy of Composition involves taking attributes of part of an object or class and applying them to the entire object or class.[20] Conservative (talk) 04:10, January 5, 2023 (EST)
I am too. So is Alexander Mercouris. An informed person needs to stay abreast of globalist garbage. RobSGive Peace a chance 05:37, January 5, 2023 (EST)
At the same time, the Financial Times is not mentioning that the lack of plentiful, cheap Russian gas is probably making German manufacturing less profitable than it otherwise would be.
I also agree with this: "As the Ukraine war becomes a "hurting stalemate" for both Russia and Ukraine, is the prospect of outright success for either side becoming impossible? Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard University, argues that Kyiv and Moscow will soon have to make "awkward and painful" compromises if they do not want the conflict to turn into a “forever war". He tells host Steve Clemons that many Americans still believe there can be a decisive “Hollywood ending” to the conflict, but, like we have seen with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, this almost never happens in real life."[21]
Two most likely scenarios according to a prediction market (with some additional commentary by me) : It's going to either be a long war of attrition that Russia wins and further wrecks Ukraine or it's going to end in a peace settlement with unfriendly borders (Like China/India or India/Pakistan). Either way, Ukraine is going to receive a lot of wreckage. Conservative (talk) 04:28, January 5, 2023 (EST)
The FT is behind the de-industrialization of Germany. That's what you don't realize. RobSGive Peace a chance 05:39, January 5, 2023 (EST)

On Ukrainian corruption

Previously, I pointed this out:

The website Cultural Front notes:

In chapter 6 of Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell highlights cultural legacies. He opens with disturbing descriptions of how longstanding cultural patterns and beliefs influenced violent conflicts among generations of families in Kentucky during the 19th century.
The compelling research findings concerning long-term and deeply held values led Gladwell to the conclusion that cultural legacies are powerful forces. They have deep roots and long lives. They persist, generation after generation, virtually intact, even as the economic and social demographic conditions that spawned them have vanished, and they play such a role in directing attitudes and behavior that we cannot make sense of our world without them. He goes on to note the possibilities of “taking cultural legacies seriously” in order to learn “why people succeed and how to make people better.”[22]

Additional information, I found out today:

The caste system was created in 1,500 B.C.

India abolished and outlawed the caste system after declaring their independence from the British.

And yet, the caste system is still influential in India today - especially in rural India.

Put that in your Ukraine can rid themselves of corruption soon pipe and smoke it!

Now I am not saying it is impossible for Ukraine to be able to rid themselves of their corruption, I just think it is unlikely. People and nations often find it hard to break their bad habits. Conservative (talk) 05:27, January 5, 2023 (EST)

Col. Milburn, head of the American Mozart group mercenaries in Ukraine. RobSGive Peace a chance 05:45, January 5, 2023 (EST)

The sobering headline hit me

“ 2022: Year of the Young mass murderers: addicted to violent video games, pro-drugs, often pro-transgender, and never click on a Bible to learn. ”

—Andrew Schlafly, December 31, 2022

What a godless age to live in, where countless individuals of this world, rather than reflecting selfless devotion to advancing biblical morality and standing up for moral courage, are drowned in their own vanities. In realistic terms, I don't hesitate to forecast the likelihood of the end being nigh. Remember what Jesus said, as recorded in the Gospel of Luke:

“ Just as it was in the days of Noah, so will it be in the days of the Son of Man. ”

—Luke 17:26

In Noah's days, the Earth was filled with violence and bloodshed. Increasing domestic terrorism nowadays is a sign that this world is coming to an end. The god of this world is Satan, per 2 Corinthians 4:4. What does the increasing pattern of frequent mass murder, motivated by atheistic Social Darwinism, prove? It's that Satan, knowing his end is near, is trying to take as many people to Hell with him, killing them so they don't have more time to repent and be saved. —LT (Mark 8:36) Saturday, 17:01, December 31, 2022 (EST)

What about the organized mass murder of the Heavenly Hundred by your friends in the U.S. State Department? RobSGive Peace a chance 18:00, December 31, 2022 (EST)

I'm pleased with the main Conservative of the Year result!

Thomas Massie excellently represents the contemporary continuation of the GOP's Old Right spirit. From the 1930s to the 60s, the party shifted towards internationalist warmongering, and the last principled notable non-interventionist conservative was arguably Eugene Siler (also from Kentucky!), who was the only congressman to vote against the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. It seems that the Commonwealth of Kentucky's tradition of electing libertarian-leaning, anti-establishment conservatives with an isolationist streak continues to this day, evident in faithful stalwarts like Paul and Massie. —LT (Mark 8:36) Sunday, 00:21, January 1, 2023 (EST)

I am also happy with this year's result also. To see why, Click HERE to see the relevant graph. Conservative (talk) 00:53, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Musk would have been better, given name recognition and the opportunity to expand the conservative base. RobSGive Peace a chance 02:18, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Conservativism is not just a set of ideas. It's also about working with others to affect change. RobSGive Peace a chance 02:22, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Setting aside the fact that he is an ally of conservatives thanks to opening up Twitter to more freedom of speech, Musk is not a conservative so he can't increase the conservative base in the short term unless he becomes a conservative. See also: Social conservatism and Fiscal conservatism. Conservative (talk) 02:26, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Musk could've helped expand the conservative movement. He's a young guy, and conservativism grows with age, experience, and maturity. Again, conservativism is not just a set of ideas, beliefs, and precepts. It is also action, being effective, persuasion, and getting things done.
Conservatism is not, "Whoever agrees with me."RobSGive Peace a chance 02:59, January 1, 2023 (EST)
One problem with conservativism is, we have too many idiots who people like Musk don't want to be associated with. RobSGive Peace a chance 03:02, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Perhaps more time is needed with respect to Elon Musk before drawing conclusions. The winners are people who have been conservative for more than a decade. So far, so good on Musk recently, and if he continues in his current direction then he could be winner next year.--Andy Schlafly (talk) 03:50, January 1, 2023 (EST)
Personally, I think he plans on running for president someday (and the whole Twitter deal was just the groundwork for that plan). I can't imagine he'd do it as a Democrat (he's already laid that groundwork, too). RobSGive Peace a chance 03:57, January 1, 2023 (EST)

Andy, barring a religious conversion to Christianity, Musk is probably not going to be a conservative next year since conservativism includes social conservatism. At best, barring a religious conversion, Musk will shift more to the political right and be right-wing. Although Musk is not a libertarian, libertarians are often not conservatives because they fail to embrace social conservatism.

One of the key parts of the Trump political coalition is the social conservatism part of the coalition as can be seen by THIS GRAPH. Conservative (talk) 04:57, January 1, 2023 (EST)

Your whole understanding of Libertarianism, and Libertarians is flawed. A "Libertarian" voter is typically an ex-Republican who joined up to protest motorcycle helmet laws or an ex-Democrat to protest marijuana laws. None ever heard of Ludwig von Mises or Murray Rothbard. RobSGive Peace a chance 05:11, January 1, 2023 (EST)

This year's vote: Donald Trump's coalition vs. Elon Musk fans. Donald Trump's coalition won! Phyllis Schlafly's social conservatism part of the coalition won!

The below graph is a graphical representation of post Donald Trump's Republican Party. Notice how large the social conservatism portion is. Donald Trump's coalition part of the coalition won this year's vote! Phyllis Schlafly's social conservatism part of the coalition won this year's vote!

Donald Trump's coalition is represented by the portion of the graph that is circled. Conservative (talk) 05:31, January 1, 2023 (EST)

The above graphic is a graphical representation of post Donald Trump's Republican Party. Notice how large the social conservatism portion is.

Donald Trump's coalition is represented by the portion of the graph that is circled.
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