Eric Kaufmann's accurate religious demography predictions and political predictions

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"I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious."- Eric Kaufmann[1]

Eric Kaufmann is a professor of politics at Birkbeck College, University of London and author. His academic research specialty is how demographic changes affect religion/irreligion and politics. He was a Fellow in the Religion in International Affairs Program, Belfer Center, Kennedy School, Harvard University, 2008-9. In 2008, he won the Richard Rose Prize of the Political Studies Association for a scholar under 40 years old.[2]

Among his various books on politics, religion, religious demography, in he wrote the book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century along with publishing various journal articles and articles in various publications.

He is also an editor of the journal Nations & Nationalism. He has written on religion and demography for Newsweek International, Foreign Policy and Prospect magazines.[3]

Prediction that religious fundamentalism would grow in the world - including the developed world

See also: Desecularization and Growth of religious fundamentalism and Growth of evangelical Christianity and Growth of evangelical Christianity in irreligious regions

Rutland Street Church, Christchurch, New Zealand.

According to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of "Evangelical, Born Again and Fundamentalist Christians" grew from 15,381 individuals to 38,127 individuals from 2013 to 2018.[4]

On December 23, 2012, Eric Kaufmann wrote:

“ I argue that 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious.

On the other hand, the secular West and East Asia has very low fertility and a rapidly aging population. The demographic disparity between the religious, growing global South and the aging, secular global North will peak around 2050. In the coming decades, the developed world's demand for workers to pay its pensions and work in its service sector will soar alongside the booming supply of young people in the third world. Ergo, we can expect significant immigration to the secular West which will import religious revival on the back of ethnic change. In addition, those with religious beliefs tend to have higher birth rates than the secular population, with fundamentalists having far larger families. The epicentre of these trends will be in immigration gateway cities like New York (a third white), Amsterdam (half Dutch), Los Angeles (28% white), and London, 45% white British. [5]

”

At a conference Kaufmann said of religious demographic projections concerning the 21st century:

“ Part of the reason I think demography is very important, at least if we are going to speak about the future, is that it is the most predictable of the social sciences.

...if you look at a population and its age structure now. You can tell a lot about the future. ...So by looking at the relative age structure of different populations you can already say a lot about the future...

...Religious fundamentalism is going to be on the increase in the future and not just out there in the developing world..., but in the developed world as well.[6]

”

Case study: The growth of religious fundamentalism in New Zealand and other developed countries which have subreplacement fertility and a rapidly aging populations

This demographic prediction about religious fundamentalism growing in the developed world has occurred (See: Growth of religious fundamentalism and Growth of evangelical Christianity). For example, in New Zealand, census data indicates that religious fundamentalism such as "Evangelical, Born Again and Fundamentalist", pentecostalism, Islam, Hinduism, Sikism have grown.[7]

According to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of "Evangelical, Born Again and Fundamentalist Christians" grew from 15,381 individuals to 38,127 individuals.[8] In addition, according to New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018, the number of pentecostal Christians increased from 74,256 to 81,624.[9] See also: Growth of evangelical Christianity in New Zealand

Eric Kaufmann's prediction about the culture war related to abortion in the United States

Eric Kaufmann wrote in his 2010 book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? concerning the United States:

“ High evangelical fertility rates more than compensated for losses to liberal Protestant sects during the twentieth century. In recent decades, white secularism has surged, but Latino and Asian religious immigration has taken up the slack, keeping secularism at bay. Across denominations, the fertility advantage of religious fundamentalists of all colours is significant and growing. After 2020, their demographic weight will begin to tip the balance in the culture wars towards the conservative side, ramping up pressure on hot-button issues such as abortion. By the end of the century, three quarters of America may be pro-life. Their activism will leap over the borders of the 'Redeemer Nation' to evangelize the world. Already, the rise of the World Congress of Families has launched a global religious right, its arms stretching across the bloody lines of the War on Terror to embrace the entire Abrahamic family.[10] ”

Case study related to the USA: After 2020, religious fundamentalists demographic weight will begin to tip the balance in the culture wars towards the conservative side, ramping up pressure on hot-button issues such as abortion

As noted above, Kaufmann wrote about religious fundamentalists: "After 2020, their demographic weight will begin to tip the balance in the culture wars towards the conservative side, ramping up pressure on hot-button issues such as abortion".[11]

On June 24, 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization.

On June 24, 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization.

Material related to Eric Kaufmann's demographic predictions about the United States and Europe (Events that will occur before 2050)

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ London: A Rising Island of Religion in a Secular Sea by Eric Kaufmann, Huffington Post, 2012
  2. ↑ Eric Kaufmann - bio at Huffington Post
  3. ↑ Eric Kaufmann - Social Trends Institute
  4. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  5. ↑ 97% of the world's population growth is taking place in the developing world, where 95% of people are religious, Tuesday, April 30, 2013
  6. ↑ Eric Kaufmann - Religion, Demography and Politics in the 21st Century
  7. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  8. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  9. ↑ Religion in New Zealand
  10. ↑ Why is the year 2020 a key year for Christian creationists and pro-lifers?
  11. ↑ Why is the year 2020 a key year for Christian creationists and pro-lifers?
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