Wave (politics)

In politics, a wave is a better-than-expected showing by a political party (or, less frequently but still important, an individual candidate) in an election.

It can describe:

• A better-than-expected showing by the opposition party against the incumbent party, resulting in some cases taking control of a legislative chamber,
• A better-than-expected showing by the incumbent party against the opposition party, resulting in some cases gaining a veto-proof (or, at a minimum, a filibuster-proof) majority in a legislative chamber, or
• A candidate not expected to win but, due to the candidate's personal popularity and/or the ineptitude of the opposition, pulling off an upset.

The term coattail effect describes a wave which is the result of the personal popularity of the candidate at the top of the ballot (usually a candidate for President of the United States). Ronald Reagan's personal popularity led to many gains for the Republican Party during the 1980's; similarly Harry Truman's personal popularity (and the overconfidence of Thomas Dewey and the Republican Party) led to not only an unexpected win in the 1948 Presidential election (which he was expected to lose badly due to a three-way split in his party) but the Democrats retaking both chambers of Congress.

A "red wave" is one which benefits the Republican Party, while a "blue wave" is one which benefits the Democrat Party.

United States Mid-term Elections

The wave phenomenon can happen in any election, but is most pronounced during mid-term elections (those elections held in even-numbered years not divisible by four, when the Presidency is not up for election) because 1) all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives are up for re-election (by contrast, only 1/3 of seats in the United States Senate -- 33 or 34 plus any special elections for unexpired terms -- are up for re-election in any election year) and 2) many states hold gubernatorial elections during mid-terms (so as not to compete with the Presidential election). Historically, in the mid-term elections during a Presidential administration (both in the first, and where applicable in the second), the opposition party outperforms the President's party.

A wave showing by one party or the other in the mid-term elections is frequently used as a gauge to determine the outcome of the upcoming Presidential election.

Notable Waves

Blue Waves

• In the 2008 Presidential election, in an example of the "coattail effect", the popularity of Barack Obama (as well as the history of him becoming the first non-White President) not only led to the Democrats regaining the White House, but also gaining eight seats in the House (they took control of that chamber in the 2006 elections) and a surprising eight seats in the Senate, which when combined with the party-switch of RINO Arlen Spector gave the Democrats a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, thus allowing them to pass Obamacare.
• In the 2018 mid-term elections, the Democrats gained 41 seats in the House (the most since the Watergate scandal), thus allowing them to control the House and to draft the articles of impeachment against President Trump.

Red Waves

• The 1994 mid-term elections saw the Republicans regaining House control with a 54-seat gain; notably, incumbent House Speaker Tom Foley lost his re-election bid, the first time since 1863 that a Speaker standing for re-election was defeated.
• The unpopularity of Obamacare led to the Republicans regaining House control in 2010 with a 63-seat gain, the most lost by an incumbent party since 1938 and the largest swing in control since 1948.
• Similarly, in 2014 the Republicans gained 13 seats in the House (more than the eight seats they lost in 2012) and a surprising nine seat gain in the Senate, allowing them to take control and stopping Merrick Garland's appointment to the United States Supreme Court.

Personal Waves

• After the 1982 House elections, then-Democrat Phil Gramm was stripped of his position on the House Budget Committee. In a unique party-switching move, he not only changed parties to the Republican Party but resigned his House seat and ran in the ensuing special election which he won in a majority, defeating nine Democrat candidates and one Libertarian candidate. The move would have long-term political effects in Texas, beginning its turn from a conservative Democrat stronghold to a Republican one:
  • It was the first time that Texas's 6th Congressional District (which at that time stretched from the south Dallas suburbs to the north Houston ones and included Gramm's College Station home; it now encompasses only the south Dallas suburbs below Dallas County) was won by a Republican since its creation in 1875; the District has elected a Republican ever since.
  • Gramm would resign at the end of that term and win election as a United States Senator, replacing the retiring John Tower and holding the seat for the GOP; since that election, except for 1988 when Lloyd Bentsen held his seat as the incumbent, the GOP has won every United States Senate election in Texas.