User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds
From Conservapedia
Probability to end of January 2012
| Candidate | 11 Dec 2011 | 17 Dec 2011 | 26 Dec 2011 | 1 Jan 2012 | 5 Jan 2012 | 11 Jan 2012 | 18 Jan 2012 | 23 Jan 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newt Gingrich | 20.5% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 10.1% |
| Mitt Romney | 20.5% | 20.4% | 28.0% | 34.2% | 33.2% | 34.1% | 36.7% | 30.3% |
| Ron Paul | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| Jon Huntsman | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Perry | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Michele Bachmann | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Santorum | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Rudy Giuliani | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Republican Total | 53.0% | 50.6% | 49.3% | 50.3% | 47.0% | 45.1% | 45.1% | 44.9% |
| Barack Obama | 44.8% | 47.3% | 48.5% | 47.5% | 50.5% | 52.7% | 52.7% | 52.9% |
| Hilary Clinton | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Joe Biden | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Democrat Total | 47.0% | 49.4% | 50.7% | 49.7% | 52.6% | 54.5% | 54.5% | 54.7% |
| Gary Johnson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||
| Independent Total | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Probability from February 2012
| Candidate | 1 Feb 2012 | 8 Feb 2012 | 11 Feb 2012 | 20 Feb 2012 | 29 Feb 2012 | 9 March 2012 | 11 April 2012 | 19 April 2012 | 12 May 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newt Gingrich | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitt Romney | 36.4% | 33.2% | 29.9% | 26.7% | 27.2% | 28.7% | 32.1% | 34.0% | 33.5% |
| Ron Paul | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Rick Santorum | 0.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeb Bush | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | ||||
| Republican Total | 43.4% | 42.0% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 38.2% | 37.0% | 36.6% | 37.1% | 35.3% |
| Barack Obama | 54.9% | 56.3% | 57.9% | 60.3% | 60.1% | 61.9% | 62.1% | 62.9% | 62.1% |
| Hilary Clinton | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| Democrat Total | 56.6% | 58.0% | 59.7% | 62.1% | 61.8% | 63.0% | 63.4% | 62.9% | 64.7% |
Probability from August 2012
| Candidate | 9 Aug 2012 | 16 Sept 2012 | 26 Sept 2012 | 3 November 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitt Romney | 34.4% | 27.7% | 21.7% | 22.5% |
| Barack Obama | 65.6% | 72.3% | 78.3% | 77.5% |
(Source: William Hill, Ladbrokes)
