Last modified on May 17, 2024, at 03:04

User:Conservative/International relations and geopolitics

Politics

World economics and trends

GNP by country

Per capita:

Total GNP:

2023

2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics

World News

World news Western perspective:

World News - NonWestern perspective:

Non-Western international politics YouTube channels perspective:

World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:

Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history

Burning Archive

Stephen Kotkin lectures

Emmanuel Todd

  • Emmanuel Todd - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.

The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan

Polarity (International relations)

Bipolar:

Middle Ground:

Multiple views discussed:

Multipolar:

Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:

Western World

USA

Economy:

US economic outlook:

US long term economic outlook:

USA 2030s economic depression:

Articles, leading power:

Canada

Europe

According to a September 2022 Ipsos poll, 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline.[1]

As the HMS United Kingdom was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put Charles Darwin on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."

European News:

  • The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) - The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.

Other:

Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:

Classical liberalism view:

Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:

The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):

India

Websites:

YouTube:

China

Economics:

YouTube channels:

China:

China, leading economic indicators:

Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:

China likely stuck in middle-income trap

Chinese export strategy will not work this time

In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards.

Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time, Forbes, April 15, 2024).

Biden hits China with steel tariffs
US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China
Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60%

In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.

If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.

China's economy is already showing "economic cracks".

Video: Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ?

US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War
Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects

See: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

Peter Zeihan on Chinese housing overbuild:

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back, Economist, May 16, 2024

Anti-China hawks

Pro-China doves

USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet

Taiwan

Japan

Japan YouTube channels:

Russia

Russia stuck in the middle-income trap:

See also: Middle-income trap

Russia was a high-income country: Russia (2012–14, 2022), but now likely in the middle-income trap. MOSCOW BLOG: Russia is stuck in the middle-income trap, 2017, IntelliNews. See: Middle-income trap and High-income economies

Putinomics and the middle-income trap

Article: Russia’s Economy, War in Ukraine, and Hopes for Post-Putin Liberalization, economist Sergey Guriyev, video at: Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)", Sergey Maratovich Guriyev is a Russian economist, who is provost and a professor of economics at the Institut d'études politiques in Paris. From 2016 to 2019, he was the chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

"Guriev kicked off his keynote address at the Davis Center’s recent 75th anniversary event with a brief economic history of Putin’s Russia, going from growth to “Putinomics” to stagnation:

Its first 10 years (1999-2008) marked one of the Russian economy’s best decades, “if not the best,” on record; a weak ruble made the country more competitive, unused production capacity created business opportunities, and rising oil prices accounted for about half of Russia’s GDP growth, which averaged 7% a year. The economy was likewise helped along by reforms that stimulated private-sector initiative — a simplified tax system, property rights for land, and modern bank regulation, among others.

Then came the global economic crisis of 2008-2009, throwing into relief problems that had begun to accumulate earlier. Circa 2003-2004, Putin, rather than pushing through more reforms, had started introducing “Putinomics” — an economy increasingly “controlled by the state and friends of Putin,” Guriev said. Despite an initial recovery after the crisis, it was clear that “the growth model of Putin’s first decade was running out of steam,” in Guriev’s words; growth in 2010-2012 began slowing down, reaching a paltry 1% in 2013. Afterward, Russia’s economy entered an era of stagnation, akin to the 1970s and ’80s, with GDP growth in 2013-2019 averaging less than 1% a year. Unlike South Korea — which once had a growth trajectory similar to Russia’s halcyon years — Moscow failed to dismantle its system of crony capitalism. Today, Seoul presides over a competitive, post-industrial, knowledge-based economy, while Russia got stuck in the so-called middle-income trap, Guriev noted."

Alternative view of Putinomics: Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, Heritage Foundation: "When Vladimir Putin first took power in 1999, he was a little-known figure ruling a country that was reeling from a decade and a half of crisis. In the years since, he has reestablished Russia as a great power. How did he do it? What principles have guided Putin’s economic policies? What patterns can be discerned? In this new analysis of Putin’s Russia, Chris Miller examines its economic policy and the tools Russia’s elite have used to achieve its goals. Miller argues that despite Russia’s corruption, cronyism, and overdependence on oil as an economic driver, Putin’s economic strategy has been surprisingly successful."

Will Russian assets be seized?

The limits of the Russian military:

Sergei Guriev (Economist):

Alexandra Prokopenko:

Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:

News:


  • John Mearsheimer - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Steve Turley - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Dmitry Orlov - YouTube - Dmitry Orlov is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)




Blogs:

Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:

Economic problems:

Russian culture overview:

Other cultural overview:

Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future and The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy

Russia and fertility rate and demographics:

Contemporary Russia:

Putin:

Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?

Maps of Russia:

Ukraine:

Russians destroying churches and engaging in religious discrimination in Ukraine:

Russia's fertility rate

Russian diaspora

"A large Russian diaspora (sometimes including Russian-speaking non-Russians), estimated at 25 million people, has developed all over the world, with notable numbers in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Canada."[3] See also: Russian diaspora

Post Ukraine invasion Russian diaspora:

Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:

Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?


Many high-income people are fleeing Russia:


The places that millionares are leaving in 2023-2024. Russian is 4rth on the list.

American views of Putin and Russia:

"Americans overwhelmingly rate Putin negatively: 88% say they do not have confidence in the Russian president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, with two-thirds saying they have no confidence in him at all. A similar share lacked confidence in him in 2023 (90%)." - Pew Research, May 8, 2024[4]

"As Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, Americans remain very negative toward Russia: 91% have an unfavorable view of the country, including 62% who say their views are very unfavorable. Just 7% in the U.S. have a favorable view of Russia. This is a similar level of negativity compared with last year’s survey, when 92% of Americans were negative toward Russia." - Pew Research, Pew Research, May 10, 2023[5]

Post Western World notion

Decline of nations:

Map of world by population size

Peter Zeihan's view

The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future

Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever?

Con view

Cultures tend to change slow.

The website Cultural Front notes:

“ In chapter 6 of Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell highlights cultural legacies. He opens with disturbing descriptions of how longstanding cultural patterns and beliefs influenced violent conflicts among generations of families in Kentucky during the 19th century.

The compelling research findings concerning long-term and deeply held values led Gladwell to the conclusion that cultural legacies are powerful forces. They have deep roots and long lives. They persist, generation after generation, virtually intact, even as the economic and social demographic conditions that spawned them have vanished, and they play such a role in directing attitudes and behavior that we cannot make sense of our world without them. He goes on to note the possibilities of “taking cultural legacies seriously” in order to learn “why people succeed and how to make people better.”[2]

”
Pro-view

International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts

Geopolitics and Empire

Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):

Burning archive:

Popular International relations and geopolitics:

Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)

Pro-Western YouTube channels:

  • RANE (Related to Stratfor)

Pro-Western podcasts:

India:

Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western or anti-Western

International relations websites - Pro-Western

Israel

  • JNS (BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff), INN, and at times center leaning I24, or left leaning - Ynet or TOI. ILH is center leaning. Note. JPost is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure Reuters stuff.

Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles

Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:

Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy? and Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy and Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now.

Miracles

Six Day War

USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism

Trends:

Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).

Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).

NATO

Expansion of NATO

Pro-NATO expansion:

  • Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
  • "But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[6]

Historian Mary E. Sarotte on issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:

  • Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)


Middle of the road on NATO expansion:

Anti-NATO expansion:

NATO's soft underbellys

China and Christianity

What would a post-communist China look like?

World map

World map by population

Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future

John Mearsheimer's view

Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine

Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[7]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in realpolitik type behavior.[8]

Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.

Peter Zeihan's view

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

Changing civilizational world order

Globalization of trade

Books

Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda

Military, wars and mass murder

WWII photo montage

"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History (Fukuyama) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor Eric Kaufmann, Twitter/X.[10], See: War and Peace.

How long do wars last?

Wars start out as wars of maneuver. If a war a war of maneuver doesn't achieve victory in 6 months, then it most cases it turns into a war of attrition (Wars of attrition are more common than insurgencies after a war).[11]

Wars are ended by removing an enemies will to fight and/or ability to fight (Productive capacity)[12]

  • "Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu
  • "What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu
  • "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics:

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine

“ Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[3] ”
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[4]

Just war vs. realist view of war

Winning the peace vs. winning a war

Military

Wars and warlike natures

Studies:

Democratic peace theory and related matters

Mass murder

Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes

Military concepts

Military competence and incompetence

Military competence

  • Deliberate Discomfort: How U.S. Special Operations Forces Overcome Fear and Dare to Win by Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable by Jason B.A. Van Camp and Andy Symonds. Ballast Books (February 18, 2020)

Military incompetence

  • On the Psychology of Military Incompetence by Norman F Dixon. Basic Books; Illustrated edition (May 31, 2016)
  • Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)

Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences

International agreements

International agreements often fail to achieve their intended results

While international agreements certainly have their place and peace/peacemaking are always a good thing to pursue, research indicates that most international agreements fail to achieve their aims (International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects, PNAS, August 1, 2022, 119 (32) e2122854119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2122854119). Given men's frequent cases of poor thinking/planning and the sinfulness of human nature, this is not entirely surprising.

Also, as far as the Russian/Ukrainian peace negotiations, agreements are only as good as the trustworthiness of the people signing them. And unfortunately, Russia/Putin/Biden Administration are all corrupt and shown HERE as can be seen in points #1, #2 and #3.

And when I look at the Minsk Agreements, former agreements and promises mentioned below, I see Russia/Ukraine/West breaking agreements/promises. Also, as far as the Minsk Agreements, as can be seen below, Russia appears to be the biggest violaters of the Minsk Agreements, with Ukraine breaking the agreements also.

Russia, West, Ukraine and the West all acting badly in terms of Minsk Agreements, agreements and promises:

Russia acting badly:

TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016, U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations: "Russia has acted contrary to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Incidents at Sea Agreement. Russia has altered the human rights landscape within its own country, decreasing democracy and begging questions about the future of governance, not just in Moscow, but across the Federation. Moreover, Russia has joined the civil war in Syria and begun militarizing the Arctic."[5]

West and Ukraine acting badly:

Notes

  1. ↑ 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline, 2022 Ipsos poll
  2. ↑ Outliers & Cultural Legacies
  3. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  4. ↑ How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine, 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website
  5. ↑ RUSSIAN VIOLATIONS OF BORDERS, TREATIES, AND HUMAN RIGHTS