User:Conservative/Forecasting

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How much better are superforecasters than pundits, scholars and thinktanks? How can being a superforecaster increase stock returns? How much training is involved?

GDP Growth Forecasts by Country in 2024

Forecasts for various countries

Leading economic indicators for the USA

Economics

What’s the relationship between the stock market and the economy?

  • What’s the relationship between the stock market and the economy? - "There has never been a consistent relationship between the stock market and the economy. While the two tend to loosely move in the same direction, they often act in widely different ways – particularly over shorter time periods... The stock market is forward looking. The price you are willing to pay for a stock today is based on how well you and other investors expect the company to do in the future. By contrast, some economic data looks back at what has already happened."
  • The stock market is not the economy and the economy is not the stock market.[1]

General forecasting

See also: Forecasting

Book

Economic forecasting

Yield curve

Best economic forecasters

Best stock forecasters

The difficulty of long term economic forecasting for various companies/sectors/countries

Difficulty of short term economic forecasting due to various factors

Economic forecasts and political forecasts

Forecasts for various years

2024

Videos/podcast, investing/business/trends

Stock investing: Good opportunities

MOAT:

Investing in blue chip art:

Books:

  • Understanding Art by Lois Fichner-Rathus, Cengage Learning; 11th edition (January 1, 2016)
  • How To Understand Art (Art Essentials) by Janetta Rebold Benton, Thames & Hudson (October 26, 2021)
  • Foundations of Art and Design by Lois Fichner-Rathus, Wadsworth Publishing; 1st edition (February 16, 2007)


Angel investing study - 27% return - Kaufman study:

Stock investing experts

Mark Lipias

Mark Lipacis: Out of more than 8,000 total analysts in the TipRanks database, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis is rated No. 1 based on his stock-picking track record over the past 10 years. Lipacis has an impressive 73% success rate on his stock ratings, and his 498 stock picks generated an average return of 30.3%.[2]

Eric Fry

Other Notable stock investment specialists


  • Seeking Alpha – Best Investment Research Website for Experienced Investors
  • Morningstar – Best Data-Driven Investment Research Platform (especially for mutual funds and ETFs)
  • Zacks – Best Supplementary Rating System


Motley Fool:

Growth investor:

Louis Navellier:

Tech investors:

  • Produced in partnership with TrueBridge Capital Partners, the Midas List has long tracked venture capital’s ebbs and flows as the definitive ranking of the top 100 tech investors."- Forbes, 2023[3]

Quants: What They Do and How They've Evolved

Stock market direction indicators

Employment, Inflation, Consumer Activity and investor activity

St. Louis Federal Reserve's Financial Stress Index and Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index

VIX

  • The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market. When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.

The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) creates and tracks an index know as the Volatility Index (VIX), which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options.

  • The Vix Index - Investopedia - The VIX is used as a contrary market indicator, how institutional sentiment can be measured by VIX, and why an understanding of the VIX tends to favor long and short puts.

KEY TAKEAWAYs

  • The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market.
  • When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.
  • Buying when the VIX is high and selling when it is low is a strategy, but one that needs to be considered against other factors and indicators.

Cat Beats Professional Investment Managers Over Stock Picks

General economic trend forecasting related info

Sources:

Economics mixed with right-wing political ideology:

America will suffer a great depression in 2030:

Semi doom and gloomers:

Jim Rogers:

Marc Faber:

Nouriel Roubini:

Gary Shilling:

Doom and gloomers:

Prediction markets

Great book on forecasting

Question: Did you know that is very doable to be a better forecaster in terms of politics, economics and other future events? There is a great book on this matter by the political science writer and political science professor Philip E. Tetlock entitled Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction which has some fascinating information. And the book has received a lot of positive reviews by various people involved in forecasting.

Political forecasting

1. Political expert forecasts

2. Arthur C. Brooks wrote in his article Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being: "A 2012 survey conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University asked a sample of Americans about their news-consumption habits, and quizzed them about U.S. and international political and economic events. They found that those watching the most partisan television news sources—on both the left and the right—were often less knowledgeable about world events than those who consumed no news at all."[1]

3. Political betting markets have better accuracy than polls and pundits.

The Good Judgment Project (started in 2011) indicates that well-chosen selected amateur forecasters who demonstrate their ability to accurately forecast are often more accurate than subject matter experts.[2]

Good forecasters vs. bad ones

The Good Judgment Project.png

International politics forecasters and their general accuracy

References

  1. ↑ Reading Too Much Political News Is Bad for Your Well-Being by Arthur C. Brooks, The Atlantic, 2020
  2. ↑ "Unclouded vision". The Economist. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
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