Talk:Irreligion in New Zealand

A quick message to a New Zealand atheist who squealed like a stuck pig after reading the Irreligion in New Zealand article. Please read: New Zealand atheists will lose the War on Christmas in the 21st century.

I hope this further clarifies matters for you.Conservative (talk) 06:57, 31 December 2018 (EST)

A New Zealand atheist wrote: "As a New Zealand citizen who has spent about 30 of his 38 years living in NZ I have no idea where... [XXX] ...is getting this rubbish from".

Question: Did he spend 30 years in NZ? Or did he spend one year in his NZ "atheist bubble" 30 times!

By the way, Mr. Militant Atheist in New Zealand, if you don't understand where I got the information from, I suggest you get off your atheist derriere and look at the footnotes of the article. Apparently, reading comprehension is not your forte!Conservative (talk) 06:58, 31 December 2018 (EST)

This page should be changed

The study is all well and good but the real data tells a much different story:

http://archive.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census/profile-and-summary-reports/quickstats-culture-identity/religion.aspx

This page needs either updating or deleting. JohnSelway (talk) 22:01, 26 March 2019 (EDT)

I added the 2013 census data which is a more accurate reflection (given it is filled out by some 90% of the population. The next census results are due this year so hopefully the trend will reverse. JohnSelway (talk) 22:13, 26 March 2019 (EDT)

It should not be changed. The 21st century will be a time of desecularization for NZ. NZ has a sub-replacement level of births and religious immigrants with replacement plus level of births are arriving. Plus, you have the remnant population of religious people that will no doubt become more and more resistant to secularization (this happened in Europe. Protestant Europe and France now have zero secularization rates. See: European desecularization in the 21st century) and they have a higher level of births. In addition, right-wing populism is growing in the world and putting big dents in the secular globalism meta narrative.

Demographers and other scholars who use trends recognize that trends do reverse and they believe secularization will reverse in NZ and a trend of desecularization will occur in NZ in the 21st century. By the way, in Britain the rate of secularization recently hit zero (see: British atheism).

Bottom line: Show me a single scholar who specifically states that the 21st century will be a time of secularization in NZ. I don't believe you can do it. Conservative (talk) 01:22, 27 March 2019 (EDT)

P.S. Watch this video: Eric Kaufmann: Why the Religious Will Inherit the Earth (see also: Eric Kaufmann and Desecularization).Conservative (talk) 01:29, 27 March 2019 (EDT)

Well, the point is moot now because I just added the census data. I don’t understand your questions or why they are really relevant to what I said so I’ll just leave it as is. The 2018 census data will be released this year so we’ll just see what happens next. JohnSelway (talk) 01:35, 27 March 2019 (EDT)

Based on what is happening in secular Europe and the world at large and based on the scholarship I have read, I believe secularization will hit its peak in NZ somewhere between 2021-2050 (see: European desecularization in the 21st century). This will be followed by a period of desecularization.Conservative (talk) 01:52, 27 March 2019 (EDT)

Maybe this material will make things clearer and it was written by Dr. Steve Turley:

"According to University of London scholar Eric Kaufmann’s detailed study on global demographic trends, we are in the early stages of nothing less than a demographic revolution. In Kaufmann’s words, “religious fundamentalists are on course to take over the world.” There is a significant demographic deficit between secularists and conservative religionists. For example, in the U.S., while self-identified non-religionist women averaged only 1.5 children per couple in 2002, conservative evangelical women averaged 2.5 children, representing a 28 percent fertility edge. Kaufmann notes that this demographic deficit has dramatic effects over time. In a population evenly divided, these numbers indicate that conservative evangelicals would increase from 50 to 62.5 percent of the population in a single generation. In two generations, their number would increase to 73.5 percent, and over the course of 200 years, they would represent 99.4 percent. The Amish and Mormons provide contemporary illustrations of the compound effect of endogamous growth. The Amish double in population every twenty years, and projections have the Amish numbering over a million in the U.S. and Canada in just a few decades. Since 1830, Mormon growth has averaged 40 percent per decade, which means that by 2080, there may be as many as 267 million Mormons in the world, making them by 2100 anywhere from one to six percent of the world’s population.

In Europe, immigration is making the continent more religiously conservative, not less; in fact, London and Paris are some of the most religiously dense areas within their respective populations. In Britain, for example, Ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Jews constitute only 17 percent of the Jewish population but account for 75 percent of Jewish births. And in Israel, Haredi schoolchildren have gone from comprising a few percent to nearly a third of all Jewish pupils in a matter of five decades, and are poised to represent the majority of the Jewish population by 2050. Since 1970, charismatic Christians in Europe have expanded steadily at a rate of 4 percent per year, in step with Muslim growth. Currently, Laestadian Lutherans in Finland and Holland’s Orthodox Calvinists have a fertility advantage over their wider secular populations of 4:1 and 2:1 respectively.

In contrast, Kaufmann’s data projects that secularists, who consistently exemplify a low fertility rate of around 1.5 (significantly below the replacement level of 2.1), will begin a steady decline after 2030 to a mere 14 to 15 percent of the American population. Similar projections apply to Europe as well. Kaufmann thus appears to have identified what he calls “the soft underbelly of secularism,” namely, demography. This is because secular liberalism entails its own “demographic contradiction,” the affirmation of the sovereign individual devoid of the restraints of classical moral structures necessitates the freedom not to reproduce. The link between sex and procreation having been broken, modernist reproduction translates into mere personal preference. It thus turns out that the radical individualism so celebrated and revered by contemporary secular propagandists is in fact the agent by which their ideology implodes."[1] (source: Text below the video and the text was written by Dr. Turley).

Scholars believe what is happening in Europe and what is projected to happen in Europe, will happen in NZ as well in the 21st century.Conservative (talk) 01:45, 27 March 2019 (EDT)