Changes
[[Jeb Bush]] moves from #3 to #1 in likelihood after yesterday's results; Santorum improved his ranking also
'''''The next elections are caucuses held that conclude on Saturday, February 4 in [[Nevada]] and begun on that day 11, in [[Maine]], and on then not until February 7 28 in Colorado and Minnesota (caucuses) Arizona and Missouri (a non-binding primary)Michigan'''''.<ref>For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> The next '''''debate''''' is scheduled for February 22. '''''The latest delegate totals can be viewed [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here]''''' - but beware of tallies that show the Florida delegates as winner-take-all when [[Republican Party]] rules prohibited that prior to April 1 and Gingrich has indicated he will challenge it.
The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is over 8% (and real unemployment much higher) only 9 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].
'''It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of delegates before June 2012''', and no candidate has yet been able to win more than 50% in a single primary. About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts.<ref>http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184</ref> '''Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all'''; New York will only be winner take all if one candidate wins more than 50% of the vote.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states</ref> The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here].
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== Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination == ''See also [[2012 Republican Primaries]].'' ===Running Candidates===
{| class="wikitable"
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!Cons
!Trending ...
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|[[Jeb Bush]]
|Jeb is the most likely to win if neither Mitt nor Newt can gain a majority of the delegates; in the general election, Jeb is sure to win Florida and Obama cannot win reelection without Florida; [[George W. Bush]]'s book sold far better than expectations, making the name an asset again; Jeb could unite the Republican Party with a late candidacy; is more conservative than his brother [[George W. Bush]]; Jeb has already criticized Palin as a rival candidate might;<ref>In a Newsmax interview in February 2010, Jeb criticized Palin by saying, "my belief is in 2010 and 2012, public leaders need to have intellectual curiosity." [http://www.newser.com/story/81720/jeb-bush-sarah-palin-not-intellectual-enough.html]</ref> Jeb published an editorial on Jan. 3, 2011 taking credit for saving Florida [[public schools]] with vouchers.<ref>http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2011/jan/03/jeb-bush/jeb-bush-touts-education-gains-wall-street-journal/</ref>
|Jeb's only chance is if there is a deadlock at the [[Republican National Convention]]. Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012. Knows that he would be viewed negatively by some as the "third" Bush, refused to run in 2008 on these grounds. Is disliked by many Tea Partiers.
|Stands at #3 with the inability of any other candidate to win a majority, thereby increasing the likelihood of the winner being chosen after many ballots at the convention. Romney's strong performances so far make him look more formidable than he did earlier in the race, however. Jeb will not want to wait until 2020 to run, which may be his next opportunity if a Republican wins in 2012 amid the persistent high unemployment.
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|[[Mitt Romney]]
|[[Newt Gingrich]]
|The [[pro-life]] candidate most opposed by [[liberal]]s, due to his political effectiveness in accomplishing [[conservative]] goals. Newt is the only contender who stands up to liberals and to the [[lamestream media]]. His debate performances have earned him a reputation as the Republican most capable of winning debates against Obama. Newt had the early backing of Fox News before [[John McCain]] backed [[Mitt Romney]] instead, which caused Fox News to switch sides. Newt has by far the strongest record of achievements of any candidate, including passing [[conservative]] legislation that included welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]]. Newt also had the courage to shut down the government. His story of overcoming being orphaned is inspirational. Has been endorsed by conservatives such as [[Fred Thompson]], [[Rick Perry]], [[Michael Reagan]], and [[Herman Cain]].
|His long record of many decades in public life makes him vulnerable to negative political ads. His personal life has been criticized: he divorced twice due to adultery and married three times. Ron Paul is particularly critical of Newt, although many of Dr. Paul's supporters are likely to prefer Newt rather than Mitt Romney.
|Rousing debate performances the week of Jan. 17th in South Carolina led to a landslide victory for Gingrich in the South Carolina primary. Prior to that, his strong debate performances and the weaknesses of other rivals to Romney had already pushed Gingrich up to #2. Despite having led in most polls conducted in late 2011, he lost the #1 spot on Dec. 24th due to the toll taken by attacks from the media and other candidates and his failure to qualify for the ballot in Virginia even though he lives there and is in first place in its polling. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates has been brilliant. With Romney unable to gain 50% support in any State there remains an opportunity for conservatives to rally behind Newt. See: [[Gingrich Administration]] for an analysis of his assumed Cabinet.
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|[[Ron PaulSarah Palin]]|Terrific on economic issues, can raise the money needed The second most likely to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican; Won the [[CPAC]] Poll. Appeals to many social liberalsif neither Mitt nor Newt can win a majority of delegates. Runs Sarah is empathetic, attracts crowds, personally [[pro-life]] ads while Romney says little about the issue. Also, Obama's support fiscal conservative, popular, track record of supporting upset victories in polls is lowest when Paul is his opponentprimaries; had a popular television series and book tour that emphasized the grassroots rather than the "inside the Beltway" mentality. Relies heavily on [[Facebook]]. |Voted twice to repeal Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal.<ref>http://community.adn.com/node/112712</ref> Appointed a former [[DADT|Don't Ask, Don't TellPlanned Parenthood]], which board member to the vast majority of Republican primary voters support[[Alaska]] Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; his age (76 lagged in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienate many Republicans. Other candidates have adopted some of his economic ideas. The media fundraising despite publicity, came in general treats him as a non-contender despite his performance disappointing fifth in polls and the early voting.|Finished a strong third [[Values Voter Summit]] in Iowa September 2010 and second in New Hampshirefared badly at [[CPAC]]. Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and is the only candidate other than many Republicans from [[Mitt RomneyGeorge W. Bush]] (allegedly) to qualify [[Peggy Noonan]] have been critical of her running for president.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/Vox-News/2010/1106/Republican-establishment-takes-on-Sarah-Palin</ref> Frequently mocked by the ballot in Virginia; Paul has won at least fifteen regional straw polls and online polls and, surprisingly, won the Values Voter Summit [[straw pollliberal media]] in .|Announced on October 5 that she would not be a landslide candidate for president in Oct2012. Marist poll conducted September 13-14, 2011showed gains for her but also that a large majority of Republicans still didn't want her to run.
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|[[Rick Santorum]]
|Won an upset victory in the [[Iowa Caucuses]], is fabulous in debates and television interviews, but has been near the bottom in polling in some key states. Campaigned relentlessly in Iowa and succeeded in picking up several important endorsements. Then sagged to only 9% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary and was an also-ran behind Gingrich and Romney in the South Carolina and Florida primaries.
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|[[Rick Perry]]
|The former [[Republican]] two-term governor of [[New Mexico]], Johnson favors legalizing marijuana, expanding legal [[immigration]] and allowing same-sex unions. Given Ron Paul's libertarian campaign for the Republican nomination and the exclusion of Johnson from most of the debates, there was little room for Johnson as a Republican this election cycle. He announced his candidacy for the Libertarian Party's nomination on December 28, 2011.
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== See also ==
*[[Endorsements 2012]]
*[[Swing States 2012]]
