Real estate

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Real estate, also known as real property (and, in Louisiana, as immovable property), is a term which generally denotes:

  • land,
  • structures on the land which cannot easily be relocated (a house generally would be considered real estate, while a travel trailer -- even if used as a residence -- would not), and
  • attachments to the structure which cannot easily be removed without major damage or making the structure useless (a central HVAC unit would be considered part of real estate, while a window air conditioner or space heater would not).

Real estate generally is subject to property tax, and although it is possible (and not uncommon) to sell real estate without using a real estate agent, the majority of real estate transactions (especially those involving homes) are handled via real estate agents.

History of the United States residential housing market

See also: Government loan program

According to Investopedia: "For the majority of U.S. history—or at least as far back as reliable information goes—housing prices have increased only slightly more than the level of inflation in the economy. Only during the period between 1990 and 2006, known as the Great Moderation, did housing returns exceed those of the stock market."[1]

Historical chart of USA home prices.[2]

Crash of 2008

See also: Crash of 2008

Negative economic news spread outward from financial institutions connected to Fannie Mae and the real estate boom to depress housing sales, construction, commercial real estate, automobiles, retail sales, state and local government, and virtually every other sector of the economy. Consumer confidence and spending plunged. Major banks and corporations went bankrupt.

The recession was worldwide. Initially governments across the world borrowed and spent huge sums of money to reverse the crisis, but the results were anaemic and the decline continued. By 2013, the notion of a Keynesian stimulus had been abandoned by the European Union, which cut it's budget in real terms, and the United States which invoked a sequestration of federal mandated spending to reduce the baseline for future years. While the prospect of deflation ordinarily would be real, the Federal Reserve had vastly increased the money supply both domestically and abroad with lending to foreign Central banks. Although the U.S. monetary base aggregates were four times larger than in mid 2007, federal spending was 50% more than in 2008, and the accumulated national debt one-third greater, U.S. GDP output still lagged and the workforce was the size (134 million workers) as it was in 2003 - despite population having grown by 24 million people. The U.S. government provided cash bailouts of several hundred billion dollars and long-term loan guarantees of over $7 trillion (compared to a GDP of $14.6 trillion in 2008).

Unlike crises in the mid 1970s and early 1980s, the panic began in the financial and real estate sector with devastating effects on many very large financial companies worldwide, especially in September 2008. The negative effects by October 2008 began spreading to all other sectors of the economy, and forecasts for the next several years showed little likelihood of recovery anywhere. For the effects on the broader economy (outside of finance and autos) see Recession of 2008.

The crisis originated with government-backed home loan guarantees in the United States, and has impacted every country in the world. Banks and financial companies reported losses of over one trillion dollars; investors suffered "paper losses" of many trillions. U.S. stocks went down 50% from their peak in 2007.[3] Paper losses for owners of stock in major financial institution were over 70%, and owners of some have lost 99% as major banks closed down. The stock market declined 50-70% in major countries and pension funds have large paper losses. Paper losses in real estate have been in the trillions; the average price of American houses fell 20%, with 30% and higher declines in California and Florida. However, thus far ordinary depositors with cash in the bank have suffered no losses. Owners of stocks in the 5000 largest U.S. corporations have paper losses of $10 trillion in 2008, dropping to $10 trillion in October from $20 trillion in late 2007.

Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

Map of China

See also: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

On February 6, 2023, Yahoo Finance said concerning the Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present):

China's overreliance on real estate has sent its economy tumbling toward 2008-era financial conditions, Kyle Bass told CNBC on Tuesday.

"This is just like the US financial crisis on steroids," the Hayman Capital founder said. "They have three and a half times more banking leverage than we did going into the crisis. And they've only been at this banking thing for a couple of decades."

The years of double-digit growth China enjoyed prior to the pandemic were made possible by an unregulated real estate market, Bass noted, which leaned too heavily on debt to expand.

With defaults now plaguing the industry, this spells massive trouble for the country's broader economy. The real estate sector makes up around a quarter of the country's GDP and 70% of household wealth.

"The basic architecture of the Chinese economy is broken," Bass summarized.[4]

Real estate investing

References

  1. Has Real Estate or the Stock Market Performed Better Historically?
  2. United States Single Family Home Prices, Trading Economics website
  3. For most people the loss is a "paper" loss because they still own the stock and it might go up, or down. If they bought stock in 2003 for $1000, watched it go to $1500 in 2008, then drop to $1000 again in 2008, their "paper loss" is $500 but their real loss is zero since they are back where they started. People who bought at $800 still have made a $200 paper profit. People who bought at $1200, say, have a paper loss of $200. The paper loss or gain becomes real when they finally sell the stock. See Paper loss for more details
  4. China is facing the US financial crisis 'on steroids' as the real estate market collapses, famed hedge fund boss says, Yahoo Finance, February 6, 2023