Pennsylvania turnout
- See also: Swing state
Pennslyvania turnout is its voting turnout among its 67 counties in major elections, which are mostly rural. In 2016 and 2020 Pennsylvania had 20 Electoral College votes, and due to migration away from the state it has 19 Electoral College votes after the decennial Census. If the Republican presidential candidate such as Trump wins this state, then it is virtually impossible for a Dem candidate to prevail nationwide.
As of July 2024, more than 515,000 gun owners in Pennsylvania are not registered to vote.[1] The overwhelming majority of them would likely vote for Trump if they simply took the time or were asked to do so. "Oct. 21, 2024, is the last day to register before the Nov. 5, 2024, election."[2]
Put another way:
| “ | ▪️13% of Trump rallygoers are not registered to vote
▪️30% of Pennsylvania hunters are not registered to vote[3] |
” |
The reported presidential election result in 2020 was, with no major third-party candidate and the inclusion of millions of mail-in ballots for Dems without signature verification:
Joe Biden: 3,458,229 (50.01%)
Donald Trump: 3,377,674 (48.84%)
Biden won only about a dozen counties in Pennsylvania, including:[4]
- Allegheny County (includes Pittsburgh, the only county Biden won easily in Western Pennsylvania)
- Centre County (includes Penn State)
- Dauphin County (includes Harrisburg)
- Philadelphia County (includes Philadelphia itself)
- Montgomery County (just north of Philadelphia)
- Bucks County (in 2024, Republican registered voters surpassed Dems there)
- Chester County (just west of Philadelphia)
- Lackawanna County (northeast Pennsylvania, where Biden is from and will be difficult for Kamala Harris to win)
- Monroe County (northeast Pennsylvania, also where Biden is from and will be difficult for Kamala Harris to win)
- Northhampton County
- Lehigh County (many colleges here)
- Erie County (northwestern Pennsylvania, almost evenly split)
| “ | [M]ore than 6.9 million Pennsylvanians who voted exceeded turnout in every presidential election since at least 1960. Not only that, but an apparently record-breaking 70.93% of voting-age Pennsylvanians voted, compared to 1960's record of 70.3%.
By comparison, about 6.1 million Pennsylvanians voted in the 2016 presidential election when 61 percent of the voting-age population voted.[5] |
” |
The reported presidential election result in 2016 was, with the Libertarian and Green Parties drawing 3%:
Donald Trump: 2,970,733 (48.18%)
Hillary Clinton: 2,926,441 (47.46%)
In 2024, RFK, Jr. has sought to be included on the ballot in addition to the Libertarian and Green Party nominees.
Turnout was a low 30% in the presidential primary in 2024, but that may be because there was no real contest at the top of the tickets.
Registration by County
Only 13 out of 67 counties in Pennsylvania have a Democrat majority in voter registration as of 2024, but they include the Dem stronghold of Philadelphia County where Dems have an 857,000 voter registration advantage.[6]
Southeast PA
An astute observer said the following in July 2024 about the growth in Republican registration in Pennsylvania, in reference to the Southeast counties:
| “ | For all intents and purposes, this region may be the ballgame. That’s why Republicans must be thrilled with their gains here, highlighted by their flip of Bucks County, which returns to a GOP plurality for the first time since the spring of 2008. Remember, Biden won Bucks by four and a half points in 2020, and Harris almost certainly has to improve upon that margin.[7] | ” |
By congressional district
Dems have a 9-8 advantage in the congressional delegation, and all of the districts continue to be majority Dem or majority GOP with the representative matching the majority party in that district. One district is nearly evenly divided by registration, and represented by a Republican.[8]
But PA congressional districts 6, 7, and 8 are only slightly majority Democrat, and those districts have many registered independents.
See also
- Pennsylvania Counties Archive
- Other voter turnout websites
- Philadelphia turnout its highest in 25 years in 2020
References
- ↑ https://x.com/LaCivitaC/status/1818796921449758941
- ↑ https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/voter-registration.html#:~:text=Oct.%2021%2C%202024%2C%20is,.%205%2C%202024%2C%20election.
- ↑ https://x.com/ScottPresler/status/1825356696048501084
- ↑ county map 2020
- ↑ https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/raccoon-rabies-vaccination-drop-from-sky-allegheny-county/?intcid=CNR-01-0623
- ↑ https://x.com/KKo2470/status/1833226877906948393
- ↑ https://penncapital-star.com/commentary/pennsylvania-voter-registration-gop-growth-continued-ahead-of-democratic-presidential-shake-up/
- ↑ https://www.politicspa.com/voter-registration-by-congressional-district-3/138525/