Essay: Will the USA continue its recent trend of reshoring and reindustrialization?

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Question: Will the USA continue its recent trend of reshoring and reindustrialization?

There are 163 million people employed in the USA. China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 and since then the USA lost about 50,000 manufacturing jobs.[1] There are several other causes of the USA losing factory jobs such as automation, corporate tax rates which weren't competitive until Trump lowered them, hyper environmentalism in the Democratic Party (global warming scare), etc.

Consider:

1. The trend of reshoring of manufacturing jobs has already begun (See: Why the Reshoring Renaissance is the Future of U.S. Manufacturing and A Reshoring Renaissance Is Underway, MIT Sloan).

The pandemic and the supply chain problems it caused sped up reshoring in the USA.

The USA losing 50,000 manufacturing jobs in 20 years didn't happen overnight and its reindustrialization will not happen overnight (See: U.S. Manufacturers Reshoring, But It Will Take A Long Time, Forbes, 2023).

Additional points:

  • "In 2023, reshoring and foreign direct investment (FDI) announcements resulted in 287,000 jobs."[2] (Granted some of these jobs were "green jobs" which Trump will not continue to subsidize, but some Chip Act jobs will continue).

2. The Republican Party has become a more working-class political party due to the efforts of Donald Trump and others. This bodes well for America's reindustrialization. If the Democratic Party wants to more effectively compete with the Republican Party, it will have to become more working-class friendly.

3. Donald Trump's energy policies are beneficial to reindustrialization (Drill, baby, drill, etc.).

4. Donald Trump's deregulation policies are beneficial to reindustrialization such as the cutting back on unreasonable/excessive Environmental Protection Agency policies.

5. If the Trump corporate tax rate reductions are continued and it looks pretty good that they will be, that will be a big incentive for companies to reshore US manufacturing.

6. The USA has one of the highest labor productivity rates in the world (America’s Labor Productivity Sets it Apart, TD Bank April 2024). Companies that reshore can capitalize on this high labor productivity rate.

In addition, the red states could put a heavier and heavier focus on school choice which would make the USA more competitive in terms of its labor productivity rate which is pretty high already. There are signs of the school choice movement growing. More school choice could cause even more people to move from blue states to red states.

Official presidential photo of President Donald Trump

7. Donald Trump has talked about tariffs for decades and he recently has begun his reciprocal tariff policy. The Trump Administration claims that the USA is currently in bilateral trade talks with 75 nations (see: Countries Scramble To Make US Trade Deals After Trump Tariff U-Turn, 2025)

8. China/USA are in a trade war and both countries have leaders with strong personalities so the trade war may continue for some time (Both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have strong personalities). However, cooler heads may prevail and China/USA have shown signs of adopting a more cooperative trading relationship (See: Trump tariffs live updates: China signals readiness for talks if US shows respect amid 'numbers game', Yahoo Finance, 2025).

See also:

9. China, which is the workshop of the world, has a major demographic/population loss crisis and it has a fertility rate of about 1.1 per woman (a replacement level of births is 2.1 per woman). Furthermore, the Chinese don't like immigration due to xenophobia against non-Han Chinese.

In addition, China has a lot of economic problems and is now facing a trade war with the USA. See the video: The Great Unraveling of China's Economic Model

For additional information, please see:

10. The USA is in an excellent position to raise capital for reindustrialization.

The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are the world's largest stock exchanges by market capitalization and trade volume.[3]

In 2024, the United States made up approximately 67% of the MSCI All-Country World Index which is a broad benchmark that tracks 2,650 listed companies in developed and developing markets with a combined value of about $80 trillion.[4]

On December 24, 2024, Investors Business Daily reported: "Trump's win gave stocks a lift unlike anything seen in past elections. Not even the market's jubilation following the 1980 victory of Ronald Reagan commanded the same percentage gains."[5]

Americans are a major source of foreign investment, with many countries relying on American capital to fuel their economic growth. Countries that Americans have a low opinion of or who the U.S. government restricts Americans investing in have less access to a major source of capital.

11. The coming demographic/population implosion of China and the supply chain choices it causes will be inflationary as factories aren't free to erect. However, if AI/automation causes goods produced to be cheaper maybe some of that inflation will be mitigated.

12. Although there is a trend of isolationism in the USA[6], the world is becoming a more unstable place and there has been an uptick in wars.

"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History (Fukuyama) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor Eric Kaufmann, Twitter/X.[7], See: War and Peace.

Proponents of a strong national defense will argue that the USA's industrial base is important for the national defense of the USA.

However, budget restraints due to its growing national debt may cause the USA to spend a lower percentage of its GNP on national defense (See: Ferguson's law).

Potential icing on the cake of the USA reshoring of manufacturing and increased economic competition on China: The Chinese Communist Party being overthrown and Christianity further expanding in China

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See also: Essay: Potential icing on the cake of the USA reshoring of manufacturing and increased economic competition on China: The Chinese Communist Party being overthrown and Christianity further expanding in China

In recent years, Christianity has seen explosive growth in China (See: Growth of Christianity in China).

Furthermore, amidst a recent uptick in Chinese Communist Party led Christian persecution in China, a Christian revival appears to be occurring (See: Panel Discusses Revival Amidst Church Persecution in China, Wheaton Record, April 2025).

There are signs that the Chinese Communist Party is causing God's judgement on China. On April 11/12, 2025, a powerful windstorm swept across half of China, triggering widespread chaos and disruption (See: China now! Super winds destroy cities as extreme weather strikes multiple provinces, 2025). A rash of natural disasters have hit China in recent years as it continues to persecute Christians heavily under Xi Jinping.[8][9]

China is experiencing a deflation crisis: Why China’s Deflation Crisis is Getting Worse).[10]

In addition, as noted above, China is experiencing other serious economic problems:

So the Chinese Communist Party, which enforces state atheism, could lose power if China continues its downward path in terms of economic strength and lose its power over the Chinese people.[11] When the Soviet Union, which had state atheism, collapsed there was a large comeback of religion in the area it formerly occupied (See: Collapse of atheism in the former Soviet Union).

If the USA continues its recent trend of reshoring and reindustrialization and increases competitive forces on China, it could help cause the Chinese Communist Party to be overthrown that would be a fantastic thing for Christendom. It would also be fantastic thing for the Chinese people both spiritually and materially. For example, one of the causes of the rise of China's economy when it was growing fast, was due to some Christianization of the Chinese population (See: The Protestant Work Ethic: Alive & Well…In China By Hugh Whelchel on September 24, 2012).

However, the Chinese Communist Party being overthrown could cause some societal chaos for a while in China. On the other hand, the fall of the Soviet Union and its replacement government was fairly peaceful.

The conversion of Constantine was helpful to Christianity expanding in the Roman Empire. Perhaps China will someday have a Christian leader.

Per capita the percentage of manufacturing jobs in the USA will likely not return to its 1950s level

How the U.S. Lost Its Place as the World’s Manufacturing Powerhouse, WSJ, 2025: "Today, there are 12.8 million manufacturing jobs in the U.S., an amount equal to 9.4% of those private-sector jobs...After the 1950s, manufacturing’s role in the U.S. economy began to slip. Some of this came about merely because Americans were becoming more affluent, and devoting more of their spending to services, such as travel, restaurants and medical care. “You get richer, you can only buy so many cars, and you start buying services,” explained Helper."

Google AI indicates: "Yes, there's a general trend where wealthy societies see a decrease in manufacturing jobs as they become more developed. This is often linked to factors like increased productivity, automation, and shifts in consumer demand toward services."[1]

In terms of its percentage of workers in manufacturing , the USA will probably never go back to having as many manufacturing jobs per capita. Robots, AI and wealthy societies having more services will prevent this. So the glory years of manufacturing jobs having a lot of prominence in terms of the percentage of people doing these jobs is over. As a result of this, the USA education will have to be upgraded so higher-order thinking has more prominence. Humans are still superior to machines when it comes to creativity, innovation, and things like empathy/compassion/"people skills". I would rather have a sweet nurse than a robot nurse any day of the week. And having a good bedside manner will keep doctors' jobs alive. But at the same time, doctors can use AI in their profession. And other jobs that require interpersonal skills such as sales/marketing/art/literature will also likely never be replaced by AI/robots completely.

External links

Notes

  1. ↑ Manufacturing jobs in the USA
  2. ↑ Google AI search results, 2025
  3. ↑ The New York Times. Casselbaum. Up, Up, Up Goes the Economy" March 20, 2018.
  4. ↑ MSCI ACWI Index (USD)
  5. ↑ Stock Market Forecast For 2025: How Trump's Return Will Weigh On The Markets, Investors Business Daily, December 24, 2024
  6. ↑ Rising US isolationism means Australia must become more resilient and autonomous, thinktank warns, The Guardian, 2022
  7. ↑ Twitter post of Professor Eric Kaufmann
  8. ↑ Natural Disaster Challenges in China
  9. ↑ China Continues to Efforts to Erase Christianity From Within, Persecution.com
  10. ↑ China's dangerous decline, Foreign Affairs magazine, December 22, 2022
  11. ↑ Scenario of a collapse of the CCP, Taipei Times, 2023
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