Economic forecasting
According to Investopedia, "Economic forecasting is the process of attempting to predict the future condition of the economy using a combination of important and widely followed indicators."[1]
Economic Forecasting: Definition, Use of Indicators, and Example
Inverted yield curves and upcoming recessions
Volatility Index (VIX)
- The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market. When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.
The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) creates and tracks an index know as the Volatility Index (VIX), which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options.
- The Vix Index - Investopedia - The VIX is used as a contrary market indicator, how institutional sentiment can be measured by VIX, and why an understanding of the VIX tends to favor long and short puts.
Key takeaways about the Volatility Index (VIX):
- The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market.
- When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.
- Buying when the VIX is high and selling when it is low is a strategy, but one that needs to be considered against other factors and indicators.
Tools and tips:
The relationship between the stock market and the economy
What’s the relationship between the stock market and the economy? - "There has never been a consistent relationship between the stock market and the economy. While the two tend to loosely move in the same direction, they often act in widely different ways – particularly over shorter time periods... The stock market is forward looking. The price you are willing to pay for a stock today is based on how well you and other investors expect the company to do in the future. By contrast, some economic data looks back at what has already happened."