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[[File: Blue Marble50 star flag.jpgpng|right|155px250px|thumbnail|"Overall, the picture suggests that the U.S. will continue to secularize in the coming decades. However, a combination of religious immigration, immigrant religious retention, slowing religious decline due to a rising prevalence of believers among the affiliated, and higher native religious birth rates will result in a plateauing of secularizing trends by mid-century." - Professor [[AtheismEric Kaufmann]] <ref>[https://ifstudies.org/blog/why-is -secularization-likely-to-stall-in -america-by-2050-a-response-to-laurie-derose Why Is Secularization Likely to Stall in America by 2050? A Response to Laurie DeRose] by Eric Kaufmann July 24, 2019</ref><br /><br />See also: [[Global atheism|decline worldwideUnited States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics]]]]On July 24, with 2019, due to religious immigration to the number of atheists falling from 4.5% of United States and the world’s population [[Atheism and fertility rates|higher fertility rate of religious people]], Professor [[Eric Kaufmann]] wrote in 1970 an article entitled ''Why Is [[Secularization]] Likely to 2.0% Stall in 2010 and projected America by 2050? A Response to drop Laurie DeRose'': "Overall, the picture suggests that the U.S. will continue to 1secularize in the coming decades.8% However, a combination of religious immigration, immigrant religious retention, slowing religious decline due to a rising prevalence of believers among the affiliated, and higher native religious birth rates will result in a plateauing of secularizing trends by 2020mid-century." <ref>http[https://www.cnsnewsifstudies.comorg/newsblog/article/globalwhy-studyis-atheistssecularization-declinelikely-onlyto-18stall-worldin-populationamerica-2020 Global Studyby-2050-a-response-to-laurie-derose Why Is Secularization Likely to Stall in America by 2050? A Response to Laurie DeRose] by Eric Kaufmann July 24, 2019</ref> Darel E. Paul wrote at the [[First Things]] website: Atheists {{Cquote|Even without demographic models, survey data since the 1970s show that the percentage of Americans with a “strong” religious affiliation has not declined at all; it is the “weak” that have turned into “nones.” Moreover, immigration brings primarily religious people from the Global South into the Global North. In his earlier book, Kaufmann predicted that America’s secular high-water mark will occur around 2030; in DeclineWestern Europe, Only 1no later than 2070.8% In Kaufmann’s view, religious identity will largely overpower ethnic identity a century hence, “with seculars and moderates of World Population by 2020all backgrounds lining up against the fundamentalist sects.”<ref>[https://www.firstthings.com/article/2019/11/the-future-is-mixed THE FUTURE IS MIXED]by Darel E. Paul, First Things website</ref>}} According to the 2014 [[General Social Survey]](GSS), the number of [[atheism|atheists]] and [[agnosticism|agnostics]] in the United States has remained relatively stable in the past 23 years. In 2014, 3% of Americans identified as atheists, and 5% identified as agnostics.<ref>Hout, Michael; Smith, Tom (March 2015). "[http://www.norc.org/PDFs/GSS%20Reports/GSS_Religion_2014.pdf Fewer Americans Affiliate with Organized Religions, Belief and Practice Unchanged: Key Findings from the 2014 General Social Survey]" (PDF). General Social Survey. NORC</ref> In 1991, 2% of Americans identified as atheist, and 4% identified as agnostic.<ref>Hout, Michael; Smith, Tom (March 2015). "[http://www.norc.org/PDFs/GSS%20Reports/GSS_Religion_2014.pdf Fewer Americans Affiliate with Organized Religions, Belief and Practice Unchanged: Key Findings from the 2014 General Social Survey]" (PDF). General Social Survey. NORC</ref>
The popular YouTube Christian [[Shockofgod]] said he believes that [[American atheism]], which is merely a squeak in American society, will be cut by at least 50% in terms of the percentage of its adherents.<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5QNCLU1t9w My challenge to evolutionists and atheists]</ref>
''See also:'' [[American atheism]] and [[United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics]]
[[File:Loc of United States.png|thumbnail|250px|left|Current religious demography scholarship suggest that the relatively low fertility of secular Americans and the religiosity of the immigrant inflow provide a countervailing force that will cause the secularization process within the total population to plateau before 2043.
This represents an important theoretical point in that demography permits society to become more religious even as individuals tend to become less religious over time.<ref>[http://www.sneps.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/jssr_15101.pdf ''Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043''], ''Journal for the Sientific Study of Religion'', vol. 49, no. 2 (June) 2010, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon,</ref>]]
In their 2010 journal article entitled, ''Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043'' published in the ''Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion'', Eric Kaufmann, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon wrote:
{{cquote|We find considerable stability of religious groups over time, but there are some important shifts. Hispanic Catholics experience the strongest growth rates to 2043. Immigration, high fertility, and a young age structure will enable this group to expand from 10 to 18 percent of the American population between 2003 and 2043, despite a net loss of communicants to secularism and Protestantism. This will power the growth of Catholics as a whole, who will surpass Protestants by mid century within the nation’s youngest age groups. This represents a historic moment for a country settled by anti-Catholic Puritans, whose Revolution was motivated in part by a desire to spread dissenting Protestantism and whose populationon the eve of revolution was 98 percent Protestant (Huntington 2004; Kaufmann 2004). Another important development concerns the growth of the Muslim population and decline of the Jews. High Muslim fertility and a young Muslim age structure contrasts with low Jewish childbearing levels and a mature Jewish age structure. Barring an unforeseen shift in the religious composition and size of the immigrant flow, Muslims will surpass Jews in the population by 2023 and in the electorate by 2028. This could have profound effects on the course of American foreign policy. Within the non-Hispanic white population, we expect to see continued Liberal Protestant decline due to low fertility and a net loss in exchanges with other groups. White Catholics will also lose due to a net outflow of converts. Fundamentalist and Moderate Protestant denominations will hold their own within the white population, but will decline overall as the white share of the population falls.
The finding that Protestant fundamentalism may decline in relative terms over the medium
term contrasts with a prevailing view that envisions the continued growth of “strong religion”
(Stark and Iannaccone 1994a). This is the result of an older age structure, which increases
loss through mortality, and immigration, which reduces the size of all predominantly white
denominations — all of which are poorly represented in the immigration flow. Fundamentalists’
relatively high fertility and net surplus from the religious marketplace is not sufficient to counteract the effects of immigration. Obviously, this could change if significant immigration begins to arrive from more Pentecostalist source countries such as Guatemala or parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
Our work also sheds light on the religious restructuring paradigm, though we do not find a
clear victor between secularism and fundamentalism. The secular population will grow substantially in the decades ahead because it has a young age structure and more people leave religion
than enter it. The sharpest gains for secularism will be within the white population, where seculars
will surpass fundamentalists by 2030. On the other hand, there are important demographic limits
to secularism, demonstrating the power of religious demography. The relatively low fertility of
secular Americans and the religiosity of the immigrant inflow provide a countervailing force that
will cause the secularization process within the total population to plateau before 2043. This
represents an important theoretical point in that demography permits society to become more
religious even as individuals tend to become less religious over time.<ref>[http://www.sneps.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/jssr_15101.pdf ''Secularism, Fundamentalism or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043''], ''Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion'', vol. 49, no. 2 (June) 2010, Eric Kaufmann, Vegard Skirbekk and Anne Goujon</ref>}}
For more information, please see: [[Growth of global desecularization#Growth of evangelicalism in the world and in the United States|Growth of evangelicalism in the world and in the United States]] and [[Desecularization#American culture war, demographics and expected tipping point after 2020|American culture war, demographics and expected tipping point after 2020]]
The Birkbeck College, University of London professor Eric Kaufman wrote in his 2010 book ''Shall the Righteous Inherit the Earth?'' concerning America:
