Abductive reasoning or abduction infers unseen facts, events, or causes in the past from clues or facts in the present. It is a type of reasoning used by historical scientists when they reason from clues back to causes.[1] The American philosopher and logician Charles Sanders Peirce was the first to describe it. As he noted, the problem with abductive reasoning is that there is often more than one cause that can explain the same effect. He suggested that a particular abductive hypothesis can be firmly established if it can be shown that it represents the best or only explanation of the "manifest effects" in question.[2]
"To evaluate an abductive argument, focus on assessing the plausibility of the explanation it offers for observed facts. Consider whether the explanation is coherent, consistent with known facts, and the simplest among competing explanations. Additionally, check if the explanation accounts for all available evidence and if any alternative explanations are more plausible."[3]
"In abductive reasoning, plausibility refers to the degree to which a generated hypothesis is believable and consistent with the observed facts and background knowledge. It's about finding the most likely explanation, even if it's not absolutely certain. Plausibility is a key factor in evaluating and selecting the best explanation from a set of possible hypotheses in abductive reasoning."[4]
Probabilistic thinking and abductive reasoning are "closely related. Abductive reasoning, often described as "inference to the best explanation," involves forming a hypothesis or educated guess to account for a set of observations, especially when the information is incomplete or uncertain. Probabilistic thinking provides the framework for evaluating the likelihood of these different hypotheses."[5]
See also
External links
- Deductive, inductive and abductive reasoning, Butte College
- Abductive Reasoning, Decisions Lab
- Why complex problems need abductive reasoning
- Types Of Reasoning-Advantages, Disadvantages And Examples (Covers deductive/inductive/abductive reasoning)
- Abduction, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
References
- ↑ Meyer (2008). Of Clues and Causes, 36–76.
- ↑ Meyer, Stephen C. (2008). Signature in the Cell. New York: HarperOne, 153–156. ISBN 978-0-06-147279-2.
- ↑ How to evaluate an abductive argument
- ↑ Abuctive reasoning. What is plausibility?
- ↑ ?s Probabilistic thinking and abductive reasoning related?