2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses
The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses are the first nominating contest in the Democratic Party's series of presidential primaries for the 2020 presidential election. They will take place in Iowa on Monday, February 3, 2020. As has frequently been the case in past election cycles, it is expected the winner of the caucus will have a significant advantage for the next stage of the primaries.
Procedure
The Iowa caucus differs from conventional primary elections in that it does not include a single step of casting individual ballots. It is sometimes known as a walking subcaucus, in which groups of voters choose representative delegates who are pledged to a particular candidate. Absentee or mail-in votes are not allowed; nor are voters not registered as Democrats allowed to participate (though Iowa citizens wishing to participate can register with the party on the day of the caucus vote). For Iowa Democrats not able to be physically present, there are 99 satellite caucus sites in various locations around the world.
At 7:00 p.m. CST on the day of the vote, caucuses are held in each of Iowa's 1,678 voting precincts (in addition to the aforementioned satellite caucuses). Registered Democrats present at the precincts then vote for delegates to county conventions, which in turn will select delegates for conventions at each of Iowa's four congressional districts, and for the state Democratic convention. The number of delegates chosen per precinct varies according to its population; some choose only one, while others choose four or more.
Each precinct has at least two rounds of voting, in which members separate into groups based on their preferred candidate and select delegates. The number of delegates allotted to each group depends on its size within the precinct caucus and the number of delegates allotted to the precinct caucus overall. Therefore, each candidate group must meet a viability threshold; in one-delegate precincts, this is a minimum of 50% of those present, 25% in two-delegate precincts, 16.67% in three-delegate precincts, and 15% in larger precincts. Groups not meeting this threshold may transfer their votes to another candidate during the final round of voting.[1]
The caucus vote is not the end of the delegate selection process, as the higher rounds of voting have yet to take place. The county conventions (this year on Saturday, March 21) will pick delegates for conventions in their respective congressional districts (to be held on Saturday, April 25) and the state Democratic convention (Saturday, June 13). These final two conventions will select the 41 delegates who (in addition to eight unpledged delegates) will represent Iowa at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
After the results of the individual precinct votes are released, a winner is determined based on the total number of pledged delegates and the projected number of delegates this will translate to among those 41 pledged for the national convention. Since the slate of candidates on the date of the caucus will almost certainly change between the date of the caucus and the date of the convention, the convention will see some reshuffling of the share of delegates, as is true of those chosen in other state primaries and caucuses.
Polling
During the early stages of the 2020 presidential campaign, former Vice-President Joe Biden dominated the polling for the Iowa caucus, averaging 20-30% of the vote. Beginning in August 2019, the situation became more fluid, with Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Bernie Sanders all dominating the field at different times. In the latest poll by YouGov and CBS News, covering the period January 22-31, 2020, Biden and Sanders were tied with 25% of the vote each.[2]