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On February 24 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine which was a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War which a war that began in 2014.

Before the invasion, Ukraine was a cleft country. A cleft country is a nation with a fairly large and distinct cultural groupings as to have separated (e.g., Czechoslovakia or Yugoslavia), semi-separated (e.g., Sudan, Tanzania), or have a threat of separatism (e.g., Canada).

The 2 main reasons why I don't believe that April 2022 was a pivotal moment in the future of global politics for decades to come

1. Cleft countries are powderkegs.

Columbia Press gives the following description of the book Cleft Countries: Regional Political Divisions and Cultures in Post-Soviet Ukraine and Moldova:

“

During the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe came close to a violent break-up similar to that in neighboring Moldova, which witnessed a violent secession of the Transnistria region. Numerous elections, including the hotly contested 2004 presidential elections in Ukraine, and surveys of public opinion showed significant regional divisions in these post-Soviet countries. Western parts of Ukraine and Moldova, as well as the Muslim Crimean Tatars, were vocal supporters of independence, nationalist, and pro-Western parties and politicians. In contrast, Eastern regions, as well as the Orthodox Turkic-speaking Gagauz, consistently expressed pro-Russian and pro-Communist political orientations. Which factors—historical legacies, religion, economy, ethnicity, or political leadership—could explain these divisions? Why was Ukraine able to avoid a violent break-up, in contrast to Moldova? This is the first book to offer a systematic and comparative analysis of the regional political divisions in post-Soviet Ukraine and Moldova. The study examines voting behavior and political attitudes in two groups of regions: those which were under Russian, Ottoman, and Soviet rule; and those which were under Austro-Hungarian, Polish, Romanian, and Czechoslovak rule until World War I or World War II. This book attributes the regional political divisions to the differences in historical experience. This study helps us to better understand regional cleavages and conflicts, not only in Ukraine and Moldova, but also in other cleft countries.

”

Cleft countries, first used by Samuel P. Huntington in Clash of Civilizations, builds upon Arnold Toynbee's, A Study of History, Volume 9, Contacts between Civilizations in Space, first published in 1954.

2. War are unpredictable. And major escalations in modern wars are like wildfires or runway trains. But unlike wildfires and runaway trains, they can last for years. It's best not to do them - especially if they involve cleft countries which are powderkegs. Peace negotiations are far preferable to major escalations.

Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Modern wars are often costly endeavors in terms of human capital and national treasure.

Under Just War Theory, only legitimate authorities can wage war for the right reasons (usually this means a defensive war, or a war of defending the weak against a violent oppressor ) and only as a last resort if every other peaceful means to avert war have been used to no avail. A just war can only be waged if there is a serious evil that needs to be stopped. Further there must be a realistic chance that the evil can be stopped without starting a greater evil. If this happens the war reaches a just conclusion. A war started for just reasons and justly waged may still reach an unjust conclusion.

Some relevant statistics:

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine

“

Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.

”

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.