United States Presidential Election, 2008

The United States has become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:

State, margin of victory (party that won in 2004)

1. Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)
2. Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)
3. New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)
4. New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)
5. Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)
6. Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)
7. Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)
8. Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)
9. Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)

The 2006 election landslide losses for Republicans in the northeast and northeastern Midwest, including Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, indicate that the outcome in the northeastern states and the northeast Midwestern states is no longer contestable. So New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania can be removed from the list. That leaves only five states in play in 2008:

1. Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)
2. Iowa, 0.67% (Repub) (7 electoral votes)
3. New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
4. Nevada, 2.59% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
5. Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)

If the same party wins these states as in 2004, then the Democrats would win the electoral college by 272-266.

The Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa. The outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008.

The inescapable conclusion is that the Republican nominee must win Wisconsin and hold Iowa in order to win the general election. Popular four-term Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson can do that, but John McCain cannot. McCain was so weak in Iowa that he skipped the primary there in 2000.

Tommy Thompson is more electable than John McCain in 2008.