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| − | [[User:Conservative/Politics|Politics]]
| + | {{speedy}} |
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| − | == International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts ==
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| − | International relations:
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLB5965C13F4B0B2DA International relations course]
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| − | Geopolitics:
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZJFozFsnIU A Geopolitical Tour of the World]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUowNpYL120&list=PLbjmSS6LZDGpASOCJ9TAG_VvfMM3-rWq9 Geopolitics introduction]
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| − | '''Geopolitics and Empire'''
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| − | Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticsEmpire/videos Geopolitics & Empire]
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| − | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-empire/id1003465597 Geopolitics and Empire] - Apple Podcast
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| − | *[https://soundcloud.com/geopoliticsandempire?_pxhc=1612166400404 Geopolitics and Empire] - Soundcloud
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| − | '''Burning archive:'''
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@theburningarchive/videos The Burning Archive], YouTube (Former government worker who has studied world history)
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| − | *[https://jeffrich.substack.com/ Burning Archive substack], Substack
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| − | '''Popular International relations and geopolitics:'''
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Zeihan on Geopolitics] - Pro-Western
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@theglobalgambit/videos Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics] (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity.
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticalFuturesGPF/videos Geopolitical Futures] - George Friedman
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CaspianReport/videos Caspian Report], Azerbaijan
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@icarusproject/videos Icarus Project]
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| − | *[https://mearsheimer.substack.com/ John Mearsheimer's substack]
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| − | '''Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)'''
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| − | *[https://twitter.com/nikola_mikovic?lang=en Nikola Mikovic - Twitter]
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| − | *[https://muckrack.com/nikola-mikovic/articles Nikola Mikovic] - Muckrack
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| − | *[https://www.diplomaticourier.com/people/nikola-mikovic Nikola Mikovic] - Diplomaticourier.com
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| − | *[https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/contributors/articles/nikola-mikovic Nikola Mikovic] - Lowy Institute
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| − | *[https://www.arabnews.com/authors/nikola-mikovic Nikola Mikovic] - Arab News
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| − | *[https://www.americanpurpose.com/authors/nikola-mikovic/ Nikola Mikovic], American Purpose
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| − | '''Pro-Western YouTube channels:'''
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@foreignaffairs/videos Foreign Affairs]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheEconomist/videos The Economist]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Peter Zeihan]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@Network2020/videos Network 20/20]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@RANENetwork/videos RANE] (Related to Stratfor)
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| − | *[https://worldview.stratfor.com/ Stratfor website]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@StratNewsGlobal/videos StratNewsGlobal]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticalFuturesGPF/videos Geopolitical Futures]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CentreforGeopolitics/videos Centre for Geopolitics] - UK
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@gefirachannel9054/videos Gefira Channel] - Netherlands
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@FPRI/videos Foreign Policy Research Institute]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticsDaily247/videos Geopolitics Daily] - Greece, Very Pro-Western
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@FPA1918/videos Foreign Policy Association]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@Geo-Politico/videos Geopolitico] - Run by Infographics channel guy
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| − | '''Pro-Western podcasts:'''
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| − | *[https://www.csis.org/podcasts/truth-matter The Truth of the Matter] - Center for Strategic and International Studies
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| − | *[https://www.brookings.edu/podcasts/ Brookings Institution Podcast] (Current affairs, tech news, economic news and Africa)
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| − | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/mark-leonards-world-in-30-minutes/id340460705 The World in 30 Minutes] - European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
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| − | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ecfr-on-air/id1200798765 ECFR on Air]
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| − | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/economist-podcasts/id151230264 Economist Podcast]
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| − | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/first-person/ First Person] - Foreign Policy Podcast]
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| − | '''India:'''
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@amitsengupta01/videos Amit Sengupta]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@DEFTALKSbyAadi/videos DEF - TALKS by Aadi] - India focused
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@WorldAffairsUnacademy/videos World Affairs]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@WION/videos WION]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CRUXnews/videos Crux]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@studyiqofficial/videos Study IQ]
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| − | '''Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western, anti-Western or pessimistic about the West/USA'''
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran]
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| − | *[https://glenndiesen.substack.com/ Glenn Diesen substack] and [https://www.youtube.com/@GDiesen1/videos Glen Diesen - YouTube]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris/videos Alexander Mercouris]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@AlexChristoforou/videos Alex Christoforou]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies/videos Neutrality Studies]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheNewAtlas/videos The New Atlas]
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| − | Glen Diesen videos:
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmF9ILWgP9Y The Impending Economic Meltdown: Investor Legend Jim Rogers, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen]
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| − | == International relations websites - Pro-Western ==
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| − | *[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ Foreign Affairs]
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| − | *[https://thediplomat.com/ The Diplomat] - Asia Pacific - Affiliated with the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Strategic_and_International_Studies Center for Strategic and International Studies]
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| − | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/ Foreign Policy] (Founded by [[Samuel Huntington]], but endorsed [[Hillary Clinton]])
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| − | *[https://www.fpri.org/ Foreign Policy Research Institute]
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| − | == Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history ==
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| − | *[https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2018-issue-no-10/great-powers-in-the-twenty-first-century Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century] by [https://rest.gmu.edu/people/mkatz Mark N. Katz], George Mason University, 2018
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| − | === Burning Archive ===
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@theburningarchive/videos Burning Archive] - YouTube
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| − | *[https://jeffrich.substack.com/ Burning Archive substack] - Substack
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| − | *[https://jeffrich.substack.com/podcast Burning Archive podcast]
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| − | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-burning-archive/id1562981468 Burning Achive Apple Podcast] - Apple Podcast
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| − | === David Woo Unbound ===
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound/videos David Woo Unbound], YouTube
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| − | *[https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ David Woo Unbound], Website
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| − | === Peter Zeihan ===
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Zeihan on geopolitics]
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| − | *[https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan/posts Peter Zeihan - Patreon]
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| − | === Stephen Kotkin lectures ===
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=e9be6bafba5c0576&q=stephen+kotkin&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjgnJ_b-MiEAxXMEVkFHbEYAfgQ0pQJegQIChAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Stephen Kotkin] - Google search
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin Stephen Kotkin] - YouTube search
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Odt-z_-1cA STEPHEN KOTKIN - THE WORLD IN PIECES], September 2024
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCusFCg-z_0 Stephen Kotkin: Turning Points: Yesterday’s World, and Tomorrow’s]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbjmSS6LZDGp-B8j17UbbY8Z2HznqcV3y Steve Kotkin - Sphere of influence lectures - 3 part series]
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| − | === The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) ===
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| − | *[https://www.osw.waw.pl/en The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)] - website (Based in Warsaw)
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@centreforeasternstudies/videos Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) - YouTube], YouTube (Based in Warsaw)
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| − | === Search Party ===
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@Search-Party/videos Search Party] - More documentary/entertainment
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| − | === World Politics Review ===
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| − | Combines realist/liberal internationalist school perspective. Written by several hundred contributors from around the world, experts in a variety of disciplines.
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| − | *[https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/ World Politics Review], website
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@worldpoliticsreview/videos World Politics Review], YouTube
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| − | === Adam Tooze ===
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=adam+tooze&sca_esv=69fb379725caa853&sca_upv=1&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWIIk__vEwANKtkUohmfcTVZ6KEeOBQ:1726576008480&ei=iHXpZuSGHYKf0PEPjr3gkAc&start=0&sa=N&ved=2ahUKEwjk6qbt_MmIAxWCDzQIHY4eGHI4ChDy0wN6BAgDEAQ&biw=1920&bih=925&dpr=1 Adam Tooze - Google News]
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| − | *[https://adamtooze.substack.com/ Adam Tooze - Substack]
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| − | *[https://www.amazon.com/Books-Adam-Tooze/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3AAdam+Tooze Adam Tooze - Amazon]
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| − | === Emmanuel Todd ===
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=e9be6bafba5c0576&q=emmanuel+todd&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiL9drS9ciEAxVhKFkFHYLTDuAQ0pQJegQIDBAB&cshid=1708947649674953&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Emmanuel Todd] - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.
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| − | === The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan ===
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc Peter Zeihan | The Changing Character of War], [[Peter Zeihan]]
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| − | === Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations ===
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| − | Biggest mistakes of view of international politics in terms of distortions are these 3: Geography is destiny (Mackinder), world is simply great power politics (Mearsheimer) and cycles of history (Turchin). See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_vKhXyJ76o Three mistakes geopolitics makes about history (Mackinder, Mearsheimer, Turchin)]. Better way to look at things is look at specific/unique circumstances. Theories/ideology should not trump reality/specific/unique history.
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| − | World is currently a mix of nationalism/cultures/global trade and political blocks (West vs. China/Russia/Iran/North Korea. Also, nonaligned countries. USA is still the strongest country in terms of economics, etc.).
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| − | *[https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/daily-review-global-order-reglobalization/ How ‘Reglobalization’ (nationalism/political blocks/world trade) Is Changing the World)]
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| − | === Polarity (International relations) ===
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| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polarity_(international_relations) Polarity - International relations]
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| − | Bipolar:
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| − | *[[Essay: The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?|The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?]]
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| − | *[https://archive.md/mEqCv#selection-1105.0-1109.30 The Myth of Multipolarity], American Power’s Staying Power, ''Foreign Affairs'', April 18, 2023
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| − | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/22/multipolar-world-bipolar-power-geopolitics-business-strategy-china-united-states-india/ No, the World Is Not Multipolar], ''Foreign Affairs'', September 22, 2023
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| − | *[https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/multipolarity-what-is-it-good-for/ Multipolarity: What Is It Good For?] (Discussion of the above ''Foreign Affairs'' article ''The Myth of Multipolarity'', 2023)
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| − | *[[Essay: The 2023 BRICS Summit was a bunch of hoopla. We still don't live in a multipolar world.]]
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| − | *[https://archive.md/ECZFt The multipolarity thesis: the verdict of Unhedged and Chartbook], FT, 2023 (Argues multipolarity is exaggerated. Focuses on financial)
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| − | *[[Essay: Why has the West been so successful?|Why has the West been so successful?]] (Stephen Kotkin - Multipolar world is nonsense)
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| − | Middle Ground:
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| − | *[https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/multipolar-world-order/ Prospects for a multipolar world order], GS, 2023 (Liechtenstein based)
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZwkwVrQjtU 'A Multipolar World With Bipolar Features'], video, Stratfor, 2023
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| − | *[https://ip-quarterly.com/en/defense-multipolarity In Defense of Multipolarity], INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY (IPQ), Nov 17, 2023, Germany's leading foreign affairs magazine, offering a Berlin view on foreign affairs.
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| − | Multiple views discussed:
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| − | *[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/responses/long-unipolar-moment The Long unipolar moment?], Foreign Affairs, 2023 (Article with counter-response) - Focuses on multiple dimensions, etc.
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| − | *[https://www.stimson.org/2023/assumption-testing-multipolarity-is-more-dangerous-than-bipolarity-for-the-united-states/ Assumption Testing: Multipolarity is more dangerous than bipolarity for the United States], October 23, 2023
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| − | Multipolar:
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| − | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/05/usa-china-multipolar-bipolar-unipolar/ Yes, the World Is Multipolar], and that isn’t bad news for the United States. - Foreign Policy, 2023
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| − | *[https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/12/16/a-multipolar-world-can-benefit-both-us-and-china-ex-fm-george-yeo A multipolar world can benefit both US and China: ex-FM George Yeo], The Star, 2023 (Singapore)
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| − | *[https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237591/us-needs-accept-its-multipolar-world-and-work-china US needs to accept it’s a multipolar world and work with China], South China Morning Post, 2023
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| − | *[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/piece-by-piece-the-brics-really-are-building-a-multipolar-world/ Piece by piece, the BRICS really are building a multipolar world], Atlantic Council, 2023
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| − | Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:
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| − | *[https://archive.md/NOeJM#selection-243.5-243.65 The new age of multipolar, 5D war against the West has begun], The Australian, 2023 (See also: [https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1764&context=parameters The Fate of the State by MARTIN VAN CREVELD])
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| − | === Western World ===
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qovJZwIVr0 Why the West Won’t Collapse]
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| − | === USA ===
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| − | [[File:Bigger, better, stronger.jpg|thumbnail|right|500px|“Sadly the American dream is dead, but if I get elected president I will bring it back. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAxQVx9X-DE&list=PL65HKFevUNqLs-0AXYmDHdyg9-QtnfnhC&index=1 Bigger, better and stronger] than ever before.” - [[Donald Trump]]
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| − | <br />
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| − | See: [[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]] ]]
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| − | [[File:Trump dancing.png|right|500px|thumb|"Surrounded by serious and talented people like J.D. Vance, his running mate, RFK Jr., who abandoned his own campaign to support Trump, former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk and other business leaders, Donald Trump’s campaign will be like Patton’s Third Army racing across France in 1944." - Roger Kimball, [https://thespectator.com/politics/kamala-harris-will-lose-2024-prediction/ ''Why Kamala Harris will lose'''], ''The Spectator'', October 21, 2024 ]]
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| − | Economy:
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| − | *[https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/composite-leading-indicator#:~:text=Composite%20Leading%20Indicator%20in%20the%20United%20States%20averaged%20100.00%20points,source%3A%20OECD USA Composite Leading Index]
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| − | *[https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/leading-economic-index USA Leading Index]
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| − | *[https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/global_economy/globalindicators USA/Western economic indicators]
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+economy+&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&sxsrf=ACQVn08--Ea9oiF5o9oxsUmBUyeWZxOaXw%3A1713995375352&ei=b34pZo-PFbufptQPzb-JiAg&ved=0ahUKEwjPgvqr6tuFAxW7j4kEHc1fAoEQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+economy+&gs_lp=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&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US economy - Google News search]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=us+economy US economy] - YouTube search
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+debt&sca_esv=f977441fd745688c&prmd=nivsbmtz&sxsrf=ACQVn08Uvp5nfjoW-O6L6o_1HDvqWZr5Pw:1714659827855&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwibsMzPle-FAxWNl4kEHa6mBZoQ0pQJegQIBhAC&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 US debt]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | US economic outlook:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&sxsrf=ACQVn0-2oZiQ3vEwnrZ-A14S5co9ps6JWA:1713995495536&q=us+economic+outlook&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=nivsbmtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiWxaHl6tuFAxVwlIkEHfv7CXkQ0pQJegQIDRAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 US economic outlook - Google News]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+economic+outlook+&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&biw=1920&bih=927&sxsrf=ACQVn0_04uQOZnqY-6zju5zRQA_1IVW75Q%3A1714660174070&ei=TqMzZq7mA42vptQPrs2W0Ak&ved=0ahUKEwiuxdf0lu-FAxWNl4kEHa6mBZoQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+economic+outlook+&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiFHVzIGVjb25vbWljIG91dGxvb2sgMgoQIxiABBgnGIoFMgQQIxgnMgsQABiABBiRAhiKBTIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgARIqBBQ7AdYwwxwAXgBkAEAmAF4oAG9A6oBAzAuNLgBA8gBAPgBAZgCBaACgwTCAgoQABiwAxjWBBhHwgINEAAYgAQYsAMYQxiKBcICBhAAGBYYHpgDAIgGAZAGCZIHAzEuNKAH4CA&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US economic outlook - Google search]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=us+economic+outlook US economic outlook] - YouTube
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | US long term economic outlook:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+long+term++economic+outlook&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&biw=1920&bih=927&sxsrf=ACQVn0-hC0DrbvZ6HYGcwYV0qbKdSFGz2A%3A1713995628190&ei=bH8pZsCXC9arptQPwaOoqAc&ved=0ahUKEwjA_cGk69uFAxXWlYkEHcERCnUQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+long+term++economic+outlook&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHnVzIGxvbmcgdGVybSAgZWNvbm9taWMgb3V0bG9vazIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGBYYHjILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYogRIgz5QnwxY-StwAXgBkAEAmAGkAaABrQWqAQMwLjW4AQPIAQD4AQH4AQKYAgagAu0FwgIKEAAYsAMY1gQYR8ICBhAAGAcYHsICCBAAGAcYCBgewgIIEAAYBRgHGB7CAgYQABgIGB7CAgcQABiABBgNmAMAiAYBkAYIkgcDMS41oAfeHg&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US long term economic outlook - Google Search]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | USA oil production:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "The US is the largest oil-producing country in the world, with output of 21.91 million barrels per day in 2023, taking the spot for the sixth year in a row."[https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/oil-and-gas-investing/top-oil-producing-countries/]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | USA 2030s economic depression forecast:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://itreconomics.com/2030s-great-depression/ 2030s Great Depression] (If the USA sees a [[Great Depression]] in the 2030s, it will likely affect the whole world. USA 26% of the global economy in 2023 in nominal terms, and about 15.5% in PPP terms.[https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=United%20States%20share%20of%20global%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP)%202028&text=In%202022%2C%20the%20United%20States,seventh%20of%20the%20global%20total.])
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Articles, leading power:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[http://time.com/3899972/us-superpower-status-military/ These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World’s Only Superpower]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiFYfDzdGaI The United States Transforms into a Global Superpower], 2024
| + | |
| − | *[[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | USA's power relative to other nations and the aging populations in the major powers:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/is3201_pp112-147.pdf A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations], 2007, [https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/32/1/112/11893/A-Geriatric-Peace-The-Future-of-U-S-Power-in-a?redirectedFrom=fulltext Abstract]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | USA and late Soviet Union comparison flawed:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/gfile/no-we-are-not-living-in-late-soviet-america/ No, We Are Not Living in ‘Late Soviet America’], The Dispatch, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.aei.org/multimedia/we-arent-all-soviets-now-or-are-we-jonah-goldberg-vs-niall-ferguson/ We Aren’t All Soviets Now … Or Are We? | Jonah Goldberg vs. Niall Ferguson] - Jonah Goldberg, American Enterprise Institute, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | US challenges:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/usa-challenges/home USA - Pessimistic view of the future]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === US/China power competition ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/usachinapowercompetition/home US/China power competition]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Canada ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvPXkPcBWsc Trudeau's Dystopia: How the Woke Conquered Canada. (Prof. Eric Kaufmann)]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@RebelNewsOnline/videos Rebel News] - Right-wing
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@nationalpost/videos National Post] - Right-wing
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CBCTheNational/videos CBC News: The National] - Mainstream
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CBCNews/videos CBC News]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Europe ===
| + | |
| − | [[File:There are no atheists on a sinking ship.jpg|thumbnail|right|400px|According to a September 2022 Ipsos poll, 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline.<ref>[https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/7-10-britons-agree-uk-decline 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline], 2022 Ipsos poll</ref>
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | As the HMS [[United Kingdom]] was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put [[Charles Darwin]] on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | European News:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@JHUBIPR/videos The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR)] - The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TLDRnewsEU/videos TLDR Euronews YouTube channel]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.breitbart.com/tag/europe/ Breitbart - Europe]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=europe&FORM=HDRSC7 Europe - Bing news]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.france24.com/en/europe/ France 24 - Europe]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.politico.eu/ Politico Europe]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.euronews.com/my-europe Europe - Euronews]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=572890011&sxsrf=AM9HkKk_KP3T1X7Kr-q80GqAq8hsBKQX_g:1697127958160&q=Europe&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiJi9ao9vCBAxXUkIkEHVJpDbEQ0pQJegQIChAB&biw=1920&bih=941 Europe - Google News]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Other:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.courthousenews.com/eu-records-lowest-birthrate-amid-a-steady-60-year-decline/ EU records lowest birthrate amid a steady 60-year decline]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/why-is-europe-losing-the-will-to-breed-1.2644169 Why is Europe losing the will to breed?]- Irish Times, 2016
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T15ZJN8Tps David Harsanyi – On Busting the Myth of European Superiority]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUWpFn0AzZQ Everything You Hear About Europe is Wrong]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpHYR8Y_F3I David Harsanyi: “Eurotrash”—Rejecting the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6jCoV5T-Is David Harsanyi, Author of "Eurotrash" on The Interview with Hugh Hewitt]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-us-anti-american-biden-trade-gas-weapons-economy-inflation-reduction-act/ Europe’s anti-American itch], Politico, 2022
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Classical liberalism view:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/death-wish/ Death Wish - Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent] - Claremont Review of Books
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.amazon.com/Eurotrash-America-Reject-Failed-Continent/dp/0063066017/ Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent] - book
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.politico.eu/article/rust-belt-on-the-rhine-the-deindustrialization-of-germany/ The deindustrialization of Germany (Europe's economic engine)]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3bxgkJNv40 Europe Is Losing Its Factories]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== France ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en Institute Montaigne]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Germany ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.ifw-kiel.de/ Kiel Institute]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === India ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Websites:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/us Times of India]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.wionews.com/ WION]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.firstpost.com/ First Post]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.hindustantimes.com/ Hindustan Times]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.orfonline.org/ Observer Research Foundation]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | YouTube:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@timesofindia/videos Times of India]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@WION/videos WION]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@Firstpost First Post]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@HT-Videos/videos Hindustan Times]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ORFDelhi/videos Observer Research Foundation]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Articles:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2024/06/04/g-s1-2226/india-election-democracy-china-economy-manufacturing India lost the manufacturing race to China. Here's why it could still succeed], 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === China ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/decline-of-china/home Decline of China]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Economics:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://tradingeconomics.com/china/composite-leading-indicator China composite leading indicator index]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economy&oq=china+economy&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyDggAEEUYJxg5GIAEGIoFMgwIARAjGCcYgAQYigUyEAgCEAAYkQIYsQMYgAQYigUyDQgDEAAYkQIYgAQYigUyDQgEEAAYkQIYgAQYigUyBggFEEUYPDIGCAYQRRg8MgYIBxAuGEDSAQg3MzUxajBqM6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 China economy] - Google search
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=china%27s+debt&oq=china%27s+debt&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyCQgAEEUYORiABDIHCAEQABiABDIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQABiABDIHCAcQABiABDIHCAgQABiABDIGCAkQLhhA0gEINTY3MWowajSoAgCwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 China's debt]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Chinese politics and economics:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.csis.org/podcasts/pekingology Pekingology]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | China and financial websites:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/?s=china Visual Capitalist - China]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.forbes.com/search/?q=China Forbes - China]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.wsj.com/world/china Wall Street Journal - China]
| + | |
| − | *[https://fortune.com/advanced-search/?query=China Fortune - China]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | YouTube channels:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaUpdate/videos China Update] (Pessimistic about China's future)
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@LeisRealTalk/videos Lei's Real talk] and [https://leisrealtalk.com/ Lei's Real talk], Website
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/user/NTDChinaUncensored/videos?disable_polymer=1 China Uncensored] - YouTube
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaUnscripted/videos China Unscripted]- YouTube
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaObserver0/videos China Observer] - YouTube
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@chinainsights4458/videos China Insights] - YouTube
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/user/ChinaViewTV/videos?disable_polymer=1 New China TV] - YouTube
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-news China News] (Epoch News - China. Falun Gong organization run)
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinainFocusNTD/videos China in Focus] - YouTube (Falun Gong organization just like the Epoch Times)
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/user/scmp888/videos?disable_polymer=1 South China Morning Post] - YouTube
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaFactChasers/videos China Fact Chasers] - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend. Both formerly were English teachers in China. Mentions YouTube channels they endorse.
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheChinaShow/videos The China Show] - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ADVChina/videos ADV China] - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@serpentza/videos Serpentza] - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel. Former English teacher in China
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@laowhy86/videos laowhy86] - YouTube. I am Matthew Tye from Laowhy86. I am a human rights advocate for China.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | China:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVMlEiewyT4 The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild || Peter Zeihan]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtYpa7LYwmQ A Conversation with Professor Stephen Kotkin, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution - China] by Stephen Kotkin, December 2022
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkH8c_OUKbQ The End of China?] - Nomad capitalist
| + | |
| − | *[https://tifwe.org/the-protestant-work-ethic-alive-well-in-china/ The Protestant Work Ethic: Alive & Well…In China]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | China, leading economic indicators:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://tradingeconomics.com/china/indicators China, leading economic indicators] (China's figures are suspect due to corruption of the Chinese Communist Party)
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/Sv2MA#selection-1651.7-1659.100 The Chinese Communist Party is on the verge of turning today's China into yesterday's Soviet Union]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/chinas-communist-party-is-at-a-fatal-age-for-one-party-regimes/11807138 China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | China's property crisis:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Chinese economy: "Growth is slowing at an alarming pace. The most recent figures, for the three months to the end of June, were the worst in five quarters while consumer prices again threaten to tip into negative territory. More alarmingly, the three-year meltdown in its property market continues unabated. What once was chipping away at personal wealth is now running a wrecking ball through the economy, hitting terminally weak household consumption." [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-23/china-approaching-economic-oblivion-property-market-trade-trap/104128504]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Decline of China ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/decline-of-china/home Decline of China]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== US-China relations ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===== Donald Trump and his China policy =====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.city-journal.org/article/who-will-trump-listen-to-on-china Who Will Trump Listen to On China?], 2024, City Journal
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://nationalinterest.org/feature/donald-trump%E2%80%99s-first-term-china-strategy-was-success-211110 Donald Trump’s First-Term China Strategy Was A Success], National Interest, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== China likely stuck in middle-income trap ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/AcvtG China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap] by Nouriel Roubini (economist), Project Syndicate, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00922/ With “Xinomics” Caught in a Trap, China Will Not Join the Ranks of Advanced Economies], September 2023, Nippon.com
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===== China and debt =====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cfg1OkEdP20 CHINA Trillion Yuan Debt Disaster: Stimulus Fails to Deliver Economic Growth & Investment Collapses], 2024 video
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Chinese export strategy will not work this time ====
| + | |
| − | [[File:House-of-cards.jpg|thumbnail|right|300px|In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards. ]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.newsweek.com/china-tariffs-us-deals-trade-blow-worlds-no-2-economy-1959792 China Tariffs: US Deals Trade Blow to World's No. 2 Economy], September 2024.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "The U.S.'s steep tariff hikes on Chinese goods took effect on Friday after Beijing criticized the move as mutually destructive protectionism. The Biden administration announced in May that it was upholding tariffs on $300 billion worth of Trump administration tariffs after a four-year review.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: [https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/04/15/chinas-export-game-wont-work-this-time/?sh=2953510c68b9 China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time], ''Forbes'', April 15, 2024).
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===== Biden hits China with steel tariffs =====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s94v5OlaTE Biden Hits China With Tariffs | EU-China: Trade Tensions | US-China], April 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ====== US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China ======
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ustr-tai-calls-decisive-action-shield-ev-sector-china-2024-04-17/ US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China], April 17,2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ====== Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ======
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/why-chinas-economy-is-more-vulnerable-trump-tariffs-this-time-2024-11-06/ Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time], Reuters, November 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-suggests-tariffs-against-nations-including-china-over-illegal-immigration-2024-06-06/ Trump suggests tariffs against nations including China over illegal immigration], 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-us-china-tariffs-needed-other-vehicles-products-2024-05-14/ Trump says US China tariffs needed on other vehicles, products], Reuters, May 14, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/Psw3W#selection-1575.0-1575.71 Joe Biden and Donald Trump battle to prove who can be toughest on China], May 16, 2024 Financial Times
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uafb8OMC88 The US Places Huge Tariffs on Chinese Imports || Peter Zeihan], 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/economists-weigh-pros-cons-trump-plan-60-tariff-china Economists weigh pros and cons of Trump plan for 60% tariff on China]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP).
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.statista.com/statistics/257112/main-import-partners-for-china/#:~:text=Distribution%20of%20Chinese%20foreign%20trade%202022%2C%20by%20trade%20partner&text=In%202022%2C%20ASEAN%20was%20China's,to%2012%20percent%20in%202022. Distribution of Chinese foreign trade in 2022, by trade partner]
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| − | | + | |
| − | China's economy is already showing "economic cracks".
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Video:''' [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eem7d58gjno Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ]?
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ====== US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War ======
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/business/us-tariffs-ev-europe-china-trade/index.html Why Biden’s monster EV tariffs could inflame a Europe-China trade war]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ====== Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects ======
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | See: [[Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd4LzZI_NGw Real Estate Crisis Bailout: ‘It Could Bankrupt Them’ – China’s Massive Bailout], Video 5/2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG6G4ru8Vuw China mulls government purchases of unsold homes to ease glut], WION, May 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/03/01/the-plan-for-chinas-property-crisis-may-cost-more-than-280-billion/?sh=6506b5f5567f#:~:text=The%20Plan%20For%20China%E2%80%99s%20Property%20Crisis%20May%20Cost%20More%20Than%20%24280%20Billion The Plan For China’s Property Crisis May Cost More Than $280 Billion], Forbes, March 1, 2024 ( Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects)
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Peter Zeihan on Chinese housing overbuild:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVMlEiewyT4 The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild], 2023 (2007/2008 USA housing crisis was 5% housing overbuild. China's overbuild of housing is 200%. THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. )
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ====== Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back ======
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [https://archive.ph/zXoPd#selection-1001.0-1001.47 Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back], Economist, May 16, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===== China and a potential balance sheet recession =====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/ZOtpx#selection-881.0-881.129 What must China do to avoid a Japan-type recession? Economist Richard Koo adds up why ‘the Chinese situation is far more serious’], May 2024, South China Morning Post
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-balance-sheet-recession-is-similar-and-different-to-that-of-japan-nris-richard-koo-says China's 'Balance Sheet Recession' Is Like, Unlike Japan’s, Economist Who Coined Term Says], 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Anti-China hawks ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=d9aad694f8688876&sxsrf=ADLYWIKV9BL7PBTk0Ux1xR9hCvuzXGMbyw:1715049806250&q=michael+pilsbury&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=invsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi91OSzwvqFAxUrFlkFHfStBm4Q0pQJegQIEBAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Michael Pilsbury - Google search]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=michael+pilsbury+&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Michael Pilsbury - YouTube]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Pro-China doves ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=keyu+jin Professor Keyu Jin - YouTube]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://twitter.com/keyujin?lang=en Key Jin - Twitter]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=d265e0c6ccb16526&sxsrf=ADLYWIKUD1cqq2cG9ZAASEi6Wk9wTXM3AQ:1715050568819&q=keyu+jin&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=invsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjMkbSfxfqFAxUHnokEHXlCBYgQ0pQJegQIDxAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Keyu Jin - Google News]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/07/cold-war-cold-peace-united-states-china-xi-decoupling-trade/ No, This Is Not a Cold War—Yet], Why are China hawks exaggerating the threat from Beijing?, Foreign Affairs, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Taiwan ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@taiwan_talks/videos Taiwan talks]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TaiwanPlusNews/videos Taiwan Plus News]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Japan ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVbrVaLIYvA Why Japan Rejects Western Style Globalism]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Japan YouTube channels:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@NipponTVNews24Japan/videos Nippon TV News 24 Japan]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@NHKWORLDJAPAN/videos NHK WORLD-JAPAN]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@LifeWhereImFrom/videos Life Where I am From]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@AbroadinJapan/videos Abroad in Japan]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Russia ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [[File:Butter.jpg|thumbnail|right|400px|I used to be more interested in Russia, but the [https://www.newsweek.com/russians-resort-stealing-butter-amid-shortages-1976575 ButterGate] scandal put a damper on that.
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service.
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | 'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram.
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | See: [https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-wartime-economy-butter-price-inflation-1.7371742 Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy], CBC News, November 2, 2024 and [https://www.newsweek.com/russians-resort-stealing-butter-amid-shortages-1976575 Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages], ''Newsweek'', October 29, 2024 ]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqnx3La76jc Why Russia is so poor and weak], video
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoZ6dBCgk1M Why Is Russia Not Rich?], 2024, video, History Scope
| + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home Russia and Russian economy] (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar). If war in Ukraine ends sooner, then recalibrate when I check on Russia's economy next.
| + | |
| − | *[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/indicators Russia's leading economic indicators]
| + | |
| − | *[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/crude-oil-production Russia crude oil production]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=587356145&sxsrf=AM9HkKn4XkQNN8kJGanSmYTMf2cpIHTbmg:1701557801049&q=russian+economy&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiTiq_i7PGCAxUoIDQIHXcgASIQ0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1920&bih=941&dpr=1 Russia - economy]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=russia+fertility+rate+&sca_esv=600112330&ei=ki-sZc6EMavG0PEP1buyuAk&ved=0ahUKEwjOlafH6eyDAxUrIzQIHdWdDJcQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=russia+fertility+rate+&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiFnJ1c3NpYSBmZXJ0aWxpdHkgcmF0ZSAyChAAGIAEGIoFGEMyBRAAGIAEMgoQABiABBiKBRhDMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGBYYHjIGEAAYFhgeMggQABgWGB4YDzIGEAAYFhgeMgYQABgWGB5IwhBQhglYoA1wAXgBkAEAmAFzoAGiA6oBAzIuMrgBA8gBAPgBAcICChAAGEcY1gQYsAPCAg0QABiABBiKBRhDGLADwgILEAAYgAQYigUYhgPiAwQYACBBiAYBkAYK&sclient=gws-wiz-serp Russia fertility rate]
| + | |
| − | *[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-per-capita-ppp Russia GDP per capita PPP]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=urals+oil+price&sca_esv=587351034&sxsrf=AM9HkKlSMypsScyN1A1QvRxVh7sfYPGTkw%3A1701556583927&ei=Z7FrZd-VOM_H0PEPxdy62AI&ved=0ahUKEwif5f-d6PGCAxXPIzQIHUWuDisQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=urals+oil+price&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiD3VyYWxzIG9pbCBwcmljZTIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyChAAGIAEGIoFGEMyBRAAGIAEMgsQABiABBiKBRiGAzILEAAYgAQYigUYhgNIziJQlAZYjSBwBXgBkAEAmAGtAaABqgqqAQQwLjEwuAEDyAEA-AEBwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsAPCAgsQABgWGB4Y8QQYCsICBRAhGKABwgIHEAAYgAQYDcICBhAAGB4YDcICBhAAGBYYHuIDBBgAIEGIBgGQBgo&sclient=gws-wiz-serp Urals oil price]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/roads_quality/ Russia ranked #99 in the world in road quality], 2019. [https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/russia-s-pothole-predicament Russia's Pothole Predicament], 2017. "An estimated 40 percent of rural villages are not connected to a paved road. In 1999 an estimated 43 percent of federal roads (which account for 46,000 kilometers and half of the country’s trucking volume) did not meet minimum quality standards because of broken surfaces, poor marking, and poor lighting. Road conditions are a major factor in Russia’s very high rate of traffic casualties. The road crisis is exacerbated by steady increases in vehicle volume. [Source: Library of Congress, October 2006 **]. Automobile travel is expanding, but the construction of new roads is not keeping pace. Some dreamers believe that in the not too distant future, the pot-holed roads will be replaced with a network of modern highways and goods will thus be moved overland by truck rather than railway."[https://factsanddetails.com/russia/Education_Health_Transportation_Energy/sub9_6d/entry-5157.html#:~:text=Road%20Conditions%20in%20Russia,-According%20to%20the&text=About%2090%20percent%20of%20federal,and%20towns%20in%20each%20region.]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Various Scenarios for Russia's future ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/taIRm The Five Futures of Russia] by historian Stephen Kotkin, May/June 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/five-scenarios-for-russias-future/ Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia’s future], February 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/SJz3Y#selection-1225.0-1229.72 Russia Is Burning Up Its Future], How Putin’s Pursuit of Power Has Hollowed Out the Country and Its People, 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lgf0Yp9PfQ&list=PLshhjXvNVYNP1gSQXsVzzK0air6RNBpAK&index=7 Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)"], 2023, Russian Sergei Guriev (Economist)
| + | |
| − | *[https://willrussiapayukrainereparations.blogspot.com/2024/08/will-russia-eventually-pay-ukraine.html Will Russia eventually pay Ukraine reparations?], Deteriorating economic conditions post war in Ukraine causes Russia to wish reapproachment with the West and agree to paying Ukraine reparations
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrpzRGWahSk Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan]
| + | |
| − | *[https://istories.media/en/opinions/2024/11/13/mad-russia-is-a-long-time-coming/ Mad Russia is a Long Time Coming]
| + | |
| − | ===== Russia becoming a failed state. Decline of Russia =====
| + | |
| − | [[File:Massive sewage geyser.png|thumbnail|right|400px|Skyscraper-high sewage plume of feces erupts in Moscow.[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/russias-sewage-system-crisis.html] ]]
| + | |
| − | *[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/will-russia-become-failed-state-is.html Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?]
| + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-failing/home Russia becoming a failed state]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-is-in-decline/home Decline of Russia] - Google site
| + | |
| − | *[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/ Decline of Russia], Blog
| + | |
| − | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/05/russia-ukraine-empire-imperialism-war/ The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire], Foreign Policy, 2023 (Re-imperialization requirements: Strong economy, strong military and effective government. Russia lacks all three.).
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-disintegrate/ Could Russia disintegrate?], GIS reports, 2023 (Argues for slow decay)
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/22/putin-regime-will-collapse-without-warning-says-freed-gulag-dissident Putin regime will collapse without warning, says freed gulag dissident], Guardian, 2024 (failed war, economic, etc.)
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/after-fall-must-we-prepare-breakup-russia After the Fall. Must We Prepare for the Breakup of Russia?], Institute Montaigne, 2023
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.newsweek.com/decline-putins-russia-its-way-global-irrelevance-65847 In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance], Historian Niall Ferguson on Russia, 2011 (updated 2017)
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "According to the Russian Central Bank, over $253 billion in private capital has left the country, and estimates suggest that up to one million highly skilled workers have emigrated, constituting about 10% of Russia's technology workforce and a third of its millionaires, according to the Financial Times." - [https://www.newsweek.com/russian-economy-stormy-uncharted-waters-putins-banking-chief-says-1932691 Russian Economy in 'Stormy Uncharted Waters,' Putin's Banking Chief Says], 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://warontherocks.com/2024/09/russia-is-on-a-slow-path-to-bankruptcy-but-how-slow/#:~:text=On%20the%20revenue%20side%2C%20things,25%20percent%20over%20one%20year. Russia Is on a Slow Path to Bankruptcy, But How Slow?], 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===== Potential stagflation or deep recession for Russia in 2025 =====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "The Bank of Russia’s statements indicate the central bank sees the economy on the cusp of stagflation. Despite sanctions and labor shortages binding output growth, corporations and consumers don’t expect price increases to slow. They also don’t perceive double digit borrowing rates as particularly restrictive. The central bank is right to be worried — we expect inflation to continue running above policymakers’ 4% target, while GDP growth is likely to slow to 1%-1.5% in 2025." — Alex Isakov, Russia economist[https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russia-flags-slowing-economic-demand-as-price-pressures-persist]
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/russia-faces-stagflation-prospect-amid-dogged-inflation-lower-growth Russia faces stagflation prospect amid dogged inflation, lower growth], 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/JJnkl#selection-1429.0-1429.124 Russia's 'overheating' economy will face a sharp slowdown in 2025 as inflation, labor shortages and sanctions crush momentum, Russia central bank says], 2025. "GDP could fall from as much as 4% to as low as 0.5% in 2025, the report said."
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/79opP#selection-1691.0-1691.215 Russia Flags Slowing Economic Demand as Price Pressures Persist], Bloomberg September 2024. "The Bank of Russia sees early indications that policymakers’ nightmare scenario of high prices coupled with slow economic growth — elements of what is known as stagflation — risks becoming a reality for the country."
| + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/ifMjH#selection-1479.0-1479.57 Russia's economy is signaling a fate worse than recession], September, 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/07/russia-expected-to-see-severe-recession-within-a-year/ Russia expected to see ‘severe recession’ within a year]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Russia and sales of natural gas:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/06/russia-economy-ukraine-war-gazprom-putin/ The war in Ukraine has turned Russia’s biggest company, Gazprom (a Russian state-controlled energy firm) into a massive money loser], 2024. If Trump is elected, he will likely end Biden's idiotic regulatory “pause” on development of facilities for exporting liquid natural gas (LNG).
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Fertility rate and demographic crisis relative to Russia:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5n9HXNmTro The Hidden Crisis Destroying Russia From the Inside], video
| + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/HL7Wu Putin’s Existential Problem: Not Enough Russians], WSJ, 2024 (Russia’s population has been in decline for years, and the war in Ukraine has made matters worse)
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Alcoholism rising in Russia due to psychological tension related to the war in Ukraine - alcohol consumption is at a 9 year high:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/07/psychological-tension-driving-alcoholic-drink-demand-in-russia/ ‘Psychological tension’ driving alcoholic drink demand in Russia], The Drinks Business, July 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *But as supply in Russia has dwindled, demand has shot up. As db reported, the increased demand for alcoholic drinks is partly due to “psychological tension” caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2023, the number of litres of alcohol consumed per person per year in Russia reached a nine-year high to eight litres, and may even be higher than that volume. Currently the per capita sales of absolute alcohol are growing in Russia. This clearly indicates an increase in consumption. This is how the population responds to difficulties,” said Evgeny Andreev, a leading researcher at the Centre for Demographic Research of the Russian Economic School (NES).[https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/07/russia-expected-to-see-severe-recession-within-a-year/].
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Tremendous cost of wounded and PTSD/alcoholic veterans post war in Ukraine: [https://warontherocks.com/2024/07/wounded-veterans-wounded-economy-the-personnel-costs-of-russias-war/ Wounded Veterans, Wounded Economy: The Personnel Costs of Russia’s War]
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| − | | + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Will Russian assets be seized?'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=seize+russian+assets&sca_esv=d635237b949d40bc&biw=1920&bih=927&tbm=nws&ei=HIYWZvipBLyx0PEP2MmjwAs&ved=0ahUKEwj4p-f-0reFAxW8GDQIHdjkCLgQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=seize+russian+assets&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiFHNlaXplIHJ1c3NpYW4gYXNzZXRzSJcgUPgLWNMZcAB4AJABAJgBcKABmgSqAQMwLjW4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgOgAtICwgIFEAAYgATCAgYQABgFGB7CAgYQABgIGB7CAggQABgIGAcYHsICCBAAGAUYBxgemAMAiAYBkgcDMC4zoAe3Cw&sclient=gws-wiz-news Seize Russian assets] - Google search
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-confiscate-assets-war-browder/32801482.html Interview: 'I Don't See How This Cannot Happen,' Bill Browder Says Of Seizing Russian Assets], Radio Free Europe, 2/2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.voanews.com/a/momentum-builds-in-efforts-to-seize-russian-assets-for-ukraine-/7488319.html Momentum Builds in Efforts to Seize Russian Assets for Ukraine], Voice of America, 2/2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=d635237b949d40bc&q=bill+browder&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=invsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi52cjO1reFAxUbMjQIHfLqCOAQ0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Bill Browder]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''The limits of the Russian military:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9Vtck34kRs The Limits of Russia's War Machine], Peter Zeihan, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [[File:512px-Changing the guards kremlin.jpeg|thumbnail|right|400px|thumbnail|[[Goose step]]ping changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin in 2006.<ref>[https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Changing_the_guards_kremlin.JPG Changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin, 2006]</ref>]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Russia economy and commentary by economists and financial people ====
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| − | '''Sergei Guriev (Economist):'''
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=Sergei+Guriev+russia&sca_esv=53a1e55b74b11b62&biw=1920&bih=927&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ACQVn08Y9Kgx1E4RZNsEhiLAyf6Pk-vXfw%3A1713042338779&ei=ovMaZsGUL9isptQPw7uuqAw&ved=0ahUKEwjB7dmAjMCFAxVYlokEHcOdC8UQ4dUDCA4&uact=5&oq=Sergei+Guriev+russia&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiFFNlcmdlaSBHdXJpZXYgcnVzc2lhMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAFIwBNQ7AhY2xBwAHgAkAEAmAHHAaABxgiqAQMwLji4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgigAokJwgIKEAAYgAQYigUYQ8ICBRAAGIAEmAMAiAYBkgcFMC43LjGgB6we&sclient=gws-wiz-news Sergei Guriev Russia] - Google search
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sergei+Guriev+russia Sergei Guriev Russia] - YouTube
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| − | Articles by Sergei Guriev:
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| − | *[https://theconversation.com/qanda-with-sergei-guriev-the-optimistic-scenario-is-the-departure-of-vladimir-putin-in-whatever-way-222950 Q&A with Sergei Guriev: ‘The optimistic scenario is the departure of Vladimir Putin in whatever way’], 2024
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| − | Videos by Sergei Guriev:
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7Ur8D7LR7o Sergei Guriev & Oleg Itskhoki: Russian Economy 2 1/2 Years Into the War Against Ukraine]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lgf0Yp9PfQ&t=660s Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)"]
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| − | Books by Sergei Guriev:
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| − | *[https://www.amazon.com/stores/Sergei-Guriev/author/B09NZC2B91?ref=ap_rdr&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true Books by Sergei Guriev]
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| − | Sergey Aleksashenko:
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| − | Sergey Aleksashenko is a Russian economist and former government official. He was the deputy finance minister and first deputy chairman of the board of the Central Bank of Russia from 1995 to 1998.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleksashenko]
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=884896eda14e76c3&sxsrf=ADLYWIJ2IQgf_F59q8mpdt8UF_2u-h4P0Q:1731682026238&q=Sergey+Aleksashenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a5eSkyfXNgRC6a9SKsMT7FKel2oEVH7CAeL9GJLZ9zSE1b0VTwOacLkI4XgtHWeWNmKPMmJVT-fsL2j8HgVBOedFE0rcv3l9ce7iX7VQHiBT41qOitP2uFNPJwqo3Nj1J21-Gh5tg3bNyqf1kLEJ7mR0Orp4LTigYJIGRfW985SFZs7PWg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjPrKagyt6JAxXBmokEHbE_M70Q0pQJegQIERAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Sergey Aleksashenko - Google news search]
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| − | Vladislav Inozemtsev:
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| − | Vladislav Leonidovich Inozemtsev is a Russian academician who is the director of the Moscow-based Centre for Research on Post-Industrial Societies, a nonprofit think tank. He is a professor and the chair at the Department of World Economy, Faculty of Public Governance, Moscow State Lomonosov University.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladislav_Inozemtsev]
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| − | *[https://archive.is/becjN#selection-1923.20-1923.40 The odds of Russia's economy collapsing are 'extremely small' and the war can go on for the long], Vladislav Inozemstev, 2024
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=884896eda14e76c3&sxsrf=ADLYWILJcjkm81G_yXAWbh30qR-r1pF8BA:1731682389834&q=Vladislav+Inozemtsev&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a5eSkyfXNgRC6a9SKsMT7FKel2oEVH7CAeL9GJLZ9zSE1b0VTwOacLkI4XgtHWeWNmKPMmJVT-fsL2j8HgVBOedFE0rcv3l9ce7iX7VQHiBT41qOitP2uFNPJwqo3Nj1J21-Gh5tg3bNyqf1kLEJ7mR0Orp4LTigYJIGRfW985SFZs7PWg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikzNbNy96JAxW-jYkEHQ22AwcQ0pQJegQIEBAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Vladislav Inozemtsev - Google news]
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| − | '''Alexandra Prokopenko:'''
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| − | Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=b88df0ab1e94c6cb&sxsrf=ACQVn0-DpiZmIYDFrQ0PnZuvgXTnsjQg7w:1712461529286&q=Alexandra+Prokopenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=invsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi54ZOpmK-FAxXJlokEHcBfBfAQ0pQJegQIDBAB&biw=1920&bih=927&dpr=1 Alexandra Prokopenko - Google News]
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| − | *[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/author/alexandra-prokopenko Alexandra Prokopenko - Moscow Times]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Alexandra+Prokopenko Alexandra Prokopenko - YouTube]
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| − | *[https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/experts/1606 Alexandra Prokopenko - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace]
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| − | *[https://twitter.com/amenka Alexandra Prokopenko - Twitter]
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| − | Key articles by Alexandra Prokopenko:
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| − | *[https://archive.ph/AmzBB#selection-1699.0-1699.60 Russia’s new budget is a blueprint for war, despite the cost], Financial Times, 2024
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| − | *[https://archive.ph/ikvr0#selection-1499.0-1499.110 Russia's economy faces an 'unsolvable trilemma' but can survive for several more years, think tank expert says], Business Insider, 2024. "Defense and national security spending will account for 8% of GDP and 40% of all federal expenditures, Prokopeko said — the highest level since the Soviet Union's collapse. In boosting spending to such heights, Russian President Vladimir Putin is effectively dismissing brewing economic imbalances as other parts of the budget become squeezed. This shift toward a military-oriented economy could last up to eight years, she pred, but will come back to bite Russia down the road."
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| − | '''Anders Aslund:'''
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=Anders+Aslund&sca_esv=a705397e3bbcc753&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWILZVJBgVAbo38cFzjey-mCtYdbxfA:1729345038608&ei=DrYTZ4DmJPn8ptQPpLuUoQU&start=10&sa=N&ved=2ahUKEwiApeGlyJqJAxV5vokEHaQdJVQQ8tMDegQIBBAE&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Anders Aslund], Swedish economist - Google News
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| − | '''Jeffrey Sonnenfeld'''
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| − | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=f874127852d0764a&sxsrf=ADLYWILrCE_8oog6Qd0i33QU6H5qpgI-PA:1716717335886&q=Jeffrey+Sonnenfeld&tbm=nws&source=lnms&prmd=nivsmbtz&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiWv_C3hquGAxUcLdAFHZkbBmIQ0pQJegQIFBAB&biw=1920&bih=927 Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - Google News] - Yale Researcher
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=+Jeffrey+Sonnenfeld&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - YouTube], YouTube
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| − | ==== Russia News ====
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| − | [[Image:A Solzhenitsyn.jpg|thumbnail|500px|right|"Since then I have spent well nigh 50 years working on the history of our revolution, but if I were asked today to formulate as concisely as possible the main cause of the ruinous revolution that swallowed up some 60 million of our people, I could not put it more accurately than to repeat, men have forgotten God. That's why all this has happened." - [[Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn]]
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| − | <br />
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| − | Church attendance rates in Russia are low, and the level of religiosity in the country has been declining in recent years.[https://re-russia.net/en/review/278/] ]]
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| − | *[https://russiapost.info/ Russia Post]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@csis/videos Center for Strategic & International Studies]
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| − | *[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/ Moscow Times] (con) and [https://www.youtube.com/@moscowtimes/videos Moscow Times - YouTube]
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| − | *[https://theins.ru/en/ The Insider]
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| − | *[https://en.thebell.io/ The Bell]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@INSIDERUSSIA/videos Inside Russia] (Con)
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| − | *[https://ridl.io/blog/ Riddle] (Con)
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@VladVexler/videos Vlad Vexler] (YouTube) - My mission is to guide you through the political challenges we all face in the 21st century. I’m a philosopher. My academic life focuses on the concept of freedom and I'm writing a book about Isaiah Berlin. I'm a British citizen living in London. I was born in Soviet Russia - I left before the collapse of the USSR. I continue to closely analyse Russian politics.
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| − | *[https://www.kyivpost.com/ Kyiv Post] and [https://www.youtube.com/@kyiv_post/videos Kyiv Post - YouTube]
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| − | *[https://kyivindependent.com/ Kyiv Independent] and [https://www.youtube.com/@kyivindependent/videos Kyiv Independent - YouTube]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@AnnafromUkraine/videos Anna from Ukraine]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+Putin&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotin - Putin] (Con)
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@theglobalgambit/videos Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics] (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity.
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@SiliconCurtain/videos Silicon Curtain]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@icarusproject/videos Icarus Project]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/search?query=russia Peter Zeihan - Russia] (Con)
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@JoeBlogs/search?query=russia Joe Blogs - Russia] (Con)
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+russia&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotkin - Russia] (Con) - [https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/stephen-kotkin-ukraine-russia-china-and-world Stephen Kotkin on Ukraine, Russia, China and the World]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=mearsheimer&sp=EgIIBA%253D%253D John Mearsheimer] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@DrSteveTurleyTV/search?query=Russia Steve Turley] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq1VBFyhIuI Dmitry Orlov - YouTube] - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Orlov_(writer) Dmitry Orlov] is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)
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| − | <br />
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran] (Pro)
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@lenapetrova/videos Lena Petrova]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
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| − | *[https://www.rt.com/ Russia Today] (Pro)
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| − | *[https://sputnikglobe.com/ Sputnik International] (pro)
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
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| − | <br />
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| − | <br />
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| − | Blogs:
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| − | *[https://www.russiamatters.org/blog Russia Matters] - Harvard's Kennedy Center for Science and International Affairs
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| − | *[https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blogs/russia-file The Russia File] - Mixed bag
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| − | *[https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/ In Moscow's Shadows]
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| − | Russian war machine and its sensitivity to oil prices:
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| − | It is argued that only a slump in oil prices will stop Russia's war efforts (See: [https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/only-an-oil-slump-can-stop-vladimir-putin-2024-03-18/ Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin], Reuters, 2024).
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| − | *[https://archive.is/qP0R3#selection-695.0-695.91 Saudi Arabia has a big plan for oil that could hammer Russia’s war machine, economists warn], Fortune magazine, October 14, 2024
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| − | Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:
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| − | *[https://archive.is/tuyE6#selection-501.0-501.67 Donald Trump’s Presidency Will Likely Boost U.S. Oil Output In 2025], Fortune, November 6, 2024
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| − | *[https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Oil-Revenues-Plunged-29-in-October-as-Crude-Prices-Fell.html Russia’s Oil Revenues Plunged 29% in October as Crude Prices Fell], Oilprice.com
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| − | *[https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-as-Trump-Inches-Toward-Victory.html Oil Prices Fall as Trump Inches Toward Victory], Oilprice.com)
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| − | *[https://archive.ph/RzRRI The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End]
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| − | *[https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Future-of-Russian-Oil-Production-in-the-Short-Medium-and-Long-Term-Insight-57.pdf The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term], [https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/the-future-of-russian-oil-production-in-the-short-medium-and-long-term/ Abstract]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0LzuMUOO0k How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry?] - Video
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Gcl1dO2_0s Russian Oil's Vanishing Act] - video
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| − | *[https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Analysts-Predict-42-Decline-In-Russian-Oil-Production-By-2035.html Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQRcvquXJ2Q Crumbling Infrastructure in the Russian Taiga] - video
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| − | *[https://ogst.ifpenergiesnouvelles.fr/articles/ogst/full_html/2019/01/ogst190118/ogst190118.html A long-term outlook on Russian oil industry facing internal and external challenges]
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| − | Economic problems:
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| − | *[https://theins.ru/en/opinion/igor-lipsitz/267664 The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development]
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| − | ==== Russian culture overview ====
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| − | International relations:
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| − | *[https://bigthink.com/the-past/russia-myths-and-realities/ Why Russia sees itself as much more than just a nation]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJSDdCPpbto Prof. Kotkin: "Russia: Back to the USSR or Back to the Tsarist Empire?"]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAu9prBL5Bs To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power] by [https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=a54abf1cb7933d7b&sxsrf=ADLYWIKErN7yDBLSf7gc2p9B7MzJPbndhw:1729612938328&q=Sergey+Radchenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a5eSkyfXNgRC6a9SKsMT7FKel2oEVH7CAeL9GJLZ9zSE1b0VTwOacLkI4XgtHWeWNoh5zOuUDAXdYlDCgudMwVm8Q_C3PSXnqvYaHPM-f2C27OJHIBf2F026DrNVVK7DrYYq11uFIXF7ScJ7Y69on5hm6hl6qngG8jwgq0xGMIetYDw-cw&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjPxaamrqKJAxUvkokEHTZYJ-EQ0pQJegQIERAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Sergey Radchenko]
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| − | Culture:
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| − | *Russian culture, traditions and art: [https://www.livescience.com/44154-russian-culture.html#:~:text=Russian%20culture%20has%20a%20long,to%20its%20ornate%20religious%20symbols. Russian Culture: Facts, Customs & Traditions] and [https://www.britannica.com/place/Russia/Cultural-life Russian Culture, Traditions, Arts - Britannica] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_of_Russia culture of Russia] and [https://culturalatlas.sbs.com.au/russian-culture/russian-culture-core-concepts Russian culture - Core Concepts] and [https://www.tota.world/article/1601 Russian Cultural Overview] and [https://www.advantour.com/russia/culture.htm Russian Culture] and [https://www.56thparallel.com/russian-traditions/ A guide to: Russian Traditions, Culture, Customs & Etiquette]
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| − | *[https://greenhearttravel.org/blog/teach-in-a-homestay-russia/5-characteristics-of-russian-culture-i-have-learned-from-my-host-family 5 Characteristics of Russian Culture I Have Learned from My Host Family While Teaching English]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWo-PXvaXLAA35Je934wbfev6BMCGkK61 Contemporary Russia before the war in Ukraine and Russian history] - video playlist
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| − | Other cultural overview:
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnKsO1LDRrM The Black Legend of Russian History - The Burning Archive Podcast Remixed]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcFfQ3-2onM A brief history of Russia with Sergei Guriev]
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| − | *[https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2010/10/INOZEMTSEV/19776#partage Russia, a society without citizens] by Vladislav Inozemtsev, Monde Diplomatique, 2010
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fJ6j-kUcvc The History Behind Russia's Expansionary Foreign Policy with Stephen Kotkin | Policy Stories]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVooyeCm_YM Plenary 1: Russia, Civilization, and Western Liberalism]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0Zv7MGPpIo Unwrapping The Enigma, Mystery And Riddle: Stephen Kotkin Explains Russia To Andrew Roberts]
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| − | *[https://www.historynewsnetwork.org/article/are-russians-really-long-suffering Are Russians really longsuffering? Russia is more prone to revolution and revolutionary change than places like the United States, United Kingdom or many other modern democratic counties], History Network
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| − | *[https://www.aei.org/op-eds/russias-ukraine-resurgence-shows-its-often-down-but-never-out/ Russia’s Ukraine Resurgence Shows It’s Often Down but Never Out] by Hal Brands, 2024
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@VladVexler/videos Vlad Vexler]
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| − | *[https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-look-at-russian-civilization-power-truth-trust-and-war A LOOK AT RUSSIAN CIVILIZATION: POWER, TRUTH, TRUST, AND WAR]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1C8awu_d6Y The Russian Psyche | Konstantin Kisin]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVJ3Sn-t4yI U.S–Russia Relations, with Stephen Kotkin], August 2022
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Mm3hgc1hhg The Psychology of an Isolated Russia] - Stephen Kotkin
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCusFCg-z_0 Isaiah Berlin Memorial Lecture 2018: Stephen Kotkin] - Sir Isaiah Berlin was a Russian-British social and political theorist, philosopher, and historian of ideas
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylaC0MUleZs 5 More Questions For Stephen Kotkin: Ukraine Edition]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ghn1X7sRFs What is Eurasia? - Stephen Kotkin]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv4knd_Fgug Russia and the West: A Historical Perspective].
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| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_abuse_of_psychiatry_in_Russia Political abuse of psychiatry in Russia]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWz2deJZppE&t=670s Russian television excerpts - Russian imperialism]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou8mI_ce80s 'The borders of Russia do not end' says Putin at awards ceremony - November 24, 2016] (Russian Geographic Society in Moscow)
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| − | '''Religiosity percentages of Russians:'''
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| − | *[https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/pulpit-propaganda-machine-tracing-russian-orthodox-churchs-role-putins-war Religiosity percentages of Russians - chart]
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| − | Essay: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]] and [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0resswOds The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy ]
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| − | Russia and fertility rate and demographics:
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5n9HXNmTro The Hidden Crisis Destroying Russia From the Inside], Video
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuhgLlxJMkU Demographics of the Orthodox Christain world] by [[Peter Zeihan]]
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| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-pdZSv7G10&t=23s Russia's Demographic Crisis Explained - TLDR News]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXHZ0IH2rOk&t=2s Updates on Russian Demographics]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1aFbmpE1wU (Russia is DONE) Russia's Catastrophic Demographics Collapse is Here.]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Contemporary Russia:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/SJz3Y#selection-1225.0-1225.31 Russia is burning up its future], Foreign Affairs 2024 (archive) - War in Ukraine is hiring Russia's long term future
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Putin:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BItVlwystr8 Drunk president who created Vladimir Putin - The story of Boris Yeltsin] and [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9YnDirqwT4 Best of drunk Boris Yeltsin!]
| + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/vlad-putin-101/home Vladimir Putin - history and analysis]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnWp_kr4tfc What Everyone Needs to Know about Russia Under Putin - FPRI's 2018 Champagne Brunch for Partners] (Russia is a paradox of strengths and weaknesses)
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-17/why-china-s-sinking-economy-could-backfire-on-vladimir-putin/104355186 Why China's sinking economy could backfire on Vladimir Putin , Australian Broadcasting Corporation], 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRnBoEcVW9Q The Complete History Of Vladimir Putin's Rise To Power] - video
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zti6uiQxfgM Vladimir Putin: Life of a Modern Warlord] - video
| + | |
| − | *[https://mishtalk.com/uncategorized/its-time-to-discuss-putin-derangement-syndrome-pds-type-i-and-type-ii/ It’s Time to Discuss Putin Derangement Syndrome (PDS) Type I and Type II]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1Oxe_LijfM Andrei Kolesnikov: Putin’s Fragile Compact With the Russian People | Foreign Affairs Interview], 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/putin-the-planner/ Putin the planner] and [https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbjmSS6LZDGrWm7mLrUiJj_a0EapkZpvP Putin: We Must Understand What Makes him tick] - Andrei Illarionov, formerly a Senior Policy Adviser during Putin's early period as President]
| + | |
| − | *[https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/reviews/1675147/lynch-lourie-putin-his-downfall-and-russias-coming-crash Lynch on Lourie, 'Putin: His Downfall and Russia's Coming Crash']
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEaDRnIFIzY The Putin Paradox: The Missed Opportunity of 1989 & Beyond | Feb. 12, 2020], video (Russia scholar [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Sakwa Richard Sakwa] was featured on [[The Duran]] on March, 11, 2024).[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaC2t-BdB20]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvOINAeRSMQ Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union], video, 2020 (Talks about stagnation in Russia)
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sB8_322qbM President Putin asks outgoing government to remain at work - Richard Sakwa], 2020
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvOINAeRSMQ Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union], 2014 (Achievements and downsides of Putin)
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-dismissed-us-warnings-days-before-moscow-concert-hall-attack-2024-3 Putin dismissed US warnings about a potential terror incident as 'blackmail' just 3 days before Moscow concert hall attack]
| + | |
| − | *Putin fell down stairs, soiled himself as speculation over worsening health grows: report.[https://nypost.com/2022/12/02/putin-fell-down-stairs-soiled-himself-amid-health-woes-report/][https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/putin-fell-down-stairs-soiled-himself-claims-report-amid-health-rumours/articleshow/95982373.cms][https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/vladimir-putin-news-russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-health-vladimir-putin-falls-down-stairs-soils-himself-at-official-residence-report-101670128999409.html][https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11494595/Vladimir-Putin-fell-stairs-home-soiled-himself.html]
| + | |
| − | *[https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4839613-another-russian-mercenary-leader-has-turned-against-putin/ Another Russian mercenary leader has turned against Putin], 2024, The Hill
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Essay: Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?|Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?]]
| + | |
| − | *[https://pagesix.com/2022/03/06/vladimir-putin-hiding-alina-kabaeva-kids-in-switzerland/ Vladimir Putin hiding lover Alina Kabaeva and their kids in Switzerland], 2022
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhI_sI0XyAA PUTIN & HIS LOVERS: RUSSIAN PARADOX], 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Maps of Russia:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.alamy.com/political-map-of-russia-or-russian-federation-divided-by-types-of-federal-subjects-republics-krays-oblasts-cities-of-federal-significance-autonomous-oblasts-and-autonomous-okrugs-simple-flat-vector-map-with-labels-image396548344.html Political map of Russia, or Russian Federation divided by types of federal subjects - republics, krays, oblasts, cities of federal significance, autonomous oblasts and autonomous okrugs. Simple flat vector map with labels] - Unknown year
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.worldometers.info/maps/russia-political-map/ Political map of Russia] - Unknown year
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.worldometers.info/maps/russia-map/ Russia map - Physical/geographical] - Unknown year
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Ukraine:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/ukraine-powderkeg/home Ukraine - Google sites]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEIFwLKlq1Q Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fTxHIVUjRc The Chris Hedges Report: The truth about Ukraine with Medea Benjamin] - History of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia (And U.S. involvement)
| + | |
| − | *[https://baptistnews.com/article/why-its-wrong-to-assume-american-evangelicals-are-siding-with-russia-over-ukraine/ Why it’s wrong to assume American evangelicals are siding with Russia over Ukraine]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Russians destroying churches and engaging in religious discrimination in Ukraine:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2023/february/ukrainian-churches-damaged-russia-war-religious-freedom-irf.html Report: 500 Ukrainian Churches and Religious Sites Damaged by Russian Military], Christianity Today, 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://time.com/6969273/russias-war-against-evangelicals/ Russia’s War Against Evangelicals], Time, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Russia's fertility rate and demographic crisis ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/a-russia-without-russians-putins-disastrous-demographics/ A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics], August 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-fertility-rate-is-catastrophically-low-335864/ Russia's fertility rate is "catastrophically low"], bne IntelliNews, July 29, 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXfNGcMSwzU Russia is Running Out of People], 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://russiapost.info/economy/children Can Putin’s Russia Have More Children, Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty All at Once?], Russia Post, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "So far, Moscow has demonstrated long-term adeptness in its policies toward immigrants, relaxing regulations when they were most needed. For instance, it admitted more immigrants after the pandemic and during the war, gradually simplified the rules for granting citizenship, and compensated for the natural population decline through naturalisation. This flexible approach, regardless of the current social climate in the country, is likely to continue. Although this will not reverse the negative trends, it will significantly mitigate them to prevent a demographic collapse. However, '''Russia’s plans could be thwarted by a severe economic downturn''', which would discourage immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus from choosing Russia as a destination for economic migration."[https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-07-03/short-term-stability-and-long-term-problems-demographic]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "An increase in beatings, vandalism and episodes of racism against Central Asian migrants has been reported in Russia since the deadly attacks at Moscow's Crocus City Hall last Friday."[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68665896]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Russian diaspora ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "A large Russian diaspora (sometimes including Russian-speaking non-Russians), estimated at 25 million people, has developed all over the world, with notable numbers in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Canada."[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians] See also: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_diaspora Russian diaspora]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Post Ukraine invasion Russian diaspora:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4tokJQlANE Wartime Emigration and the Russian Diaspora], 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDNhZ-i2Tx4 The New Russian Diaspora: The New Emigres’ Impact on Putin’s Rule], 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3nMWpN222w Ukrainian And Russian Refugees Fleeing War Set Up ''Whites Only'' Bars In Sri Lanka]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/russias-economy-is-that-of-shrinking.html Russia's brain drain]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.is/aA1vB#selection-1351.0-1351.127 Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's], Business Insider, 2024 (Makes a 2026 forecast)
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9 Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's], Business Insider, September 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-massive-brain-drain-workforce-shortage-ukraine-war-sanctions-2023-6 Russia's economy faces a 'massive brain drain' as over 1 million young workers exit labor force], Markets Insider, 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/08/19/the-great-russian-brain-drain-en The Great Russian Brain Drain], Novaya Gazeta Europe, 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-immigration-kazakhstan-technology-c041eb0b7472668087bb94207de2f71d As Russia sees tech brain drain, other nations hope to gain], ''Associated Press'', 2022
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://themedialine.org/by-region/will-jews-continue-to-flee-russia-in-large-numbers/ Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?], 2023 (43,000 Jews fled Russia since the war in Ukraine)
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Many high-income people are fleeing Russia:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2023/06/24/billionaire-oligarchs-jets-flee-moscow-as-putins-regime-plunges-into-crisis/?sh=b79ff372b8d8 Billionaire Oligarchs’ Jets Flee Moscow As Putin’s Regime Plunges Into Crisis], Forbes 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/14/business/russia-millionaire-exodus/index.html Russia is ‘hemorrhaging’ millionaires], June 2022
| + | |
| − | <br />
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [[File:The places that millionaires are leaving 2022 to 2023.png|thumbnail|center|600px|The places that millionares are leaving in 2023-2024. Russian is 4rth on the list.]]
| + | |
| − | {{Clear}} | + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''American views of Putin and Russia:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "Americans overwhelmingly rate Putin negatively: 88% say they do not have confidence in the Russian president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, with two-thirds saying they have no confidence in him at all. A similar share lacked confidence in him in 2023 (90%)." - Pew Research, May 8, 2024[https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/05/08/views-of-russia-and-putin/#:~:text=Americans%20overwhelmingly%20rate%20Putin%20negatively,him%20in%202023%20(90%25).]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | "As Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, Americans remain very negative toward Russia: 91% have an unfavorable view of the country, including 62% who say their views are very unfavorable. Just 7% in the U.S. have a favorable view of Russia. This is a similar level of negativity compared with last year’s survey, when 92% of Americans were negative toward Russia." - Pew Research, Pew Research, May 10, 2023[https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/05/10/americans-hold-positive-feelings-toward-nato-and-ukraine-see-russia-as-an-enemy/]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Post Western World notion ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-23/post-western-world-disturbing-interview-prof-harry-redner A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 1]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-14/post-western-world-disturbing-interview-prof-harry-redner-part-2 A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 2]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Decline of nations:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2011/11/decline-of-nations.html Decline of nations - Daniel Greenfield's blog]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Map of world by population size ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://twitter.com/epkaufm?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author Map of world by population size]
| + | |
| − | ==== Peter Zeihan's view ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Peter Zeihan] is an American geopolitical analyst and author.
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH2YwhYOZxg Predicting the Future with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaJ9VZorgjM Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview], 5-2-2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/182FP#selection-1241.0-1241.26 The Five Futures of Russia] by the historian [https://www.hoover.org/profiles/stephen-kotkin Steven Kotkin]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever? ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/182FP#selection-1241.0-1241.26 The Five Futures of Russia] by the historian [https://www.hoover.org/profiles/stephen-kotkin Steven Kotkin]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===== Con view =====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.gotquestions.org/Russia-end-times.html Does the Bible say anything about Russia in relation to the end times?], Gotquestions.org
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrpzRGWahSk Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.rt.com/russia/596646-west-rebuild-relations-scratch-kremlin/ West must rebuild relations with Russia from scratch – Kremlin], Russia Today, 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Cultures tend to change slow.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | The website Cultural Front notes:
| + | |
| − | {{Cquote|In chapter 6 of ''Outliers'', [[Malcolm Gladwell]] highlights cultural legacies. He opens with disturbing descriptions of how longstanding cultural patterns and beliefs influenced violent conflicts among generations of families in Kentucky during the 19th century.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | The compelling research findings concerning long-term and deeply held values led Gladwell to the conclusion that cultural legacies are powerful forces. They have deep roots and long lives. They persist, generation after generation, virtually intact, even as the economic and social demographic conditions that spawned them have vanished, and they play such a role in directing attitudes and behavior that we cannot make sense of our world without them. He goes on to note the possibilities of “taking cultural legacies seriously” in order to learn “why people succeed and how to make people better.”<ref>[http://www.culturalfront.org/2013/10/outliers-cultural-legacies.html Outliers & Cultural Legacies]</ref>}}
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===== Pro-view =====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/insights/russias-economy-war-ukraine-and-hopes-post-putin-liberalization Russia’s Economy, War in Ukraine, and Hopes for Post-Putin Liberalization], 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lgf0Yp9PfQ&list=PLshhjXvNVYNP1gSQXsVzzK0air6RNBpAK&index=7 Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)"], 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.cidob.org/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/notes_internacionals/n1_213/will_russia_return_to_europe Will Russia Return to Europe?], 2019
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == BRICS ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | 2024:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | BRICS are not agreeing on a common currency so it's not much of an international trade organization.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | BRICS is a China lead/dominated organization subsidized by China. If China keeps having economic problems, BRICS probably doesn't have much a future.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | With the addition of new members in BRICS+, the group of emerging powers will be more globally representative — but also face more internal divisions.[https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/brics-summit-emerging-middle-powers-g7-g20?lang=en] For example, "In a major setback to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Brazil has decided against joining Beijing’s multi-billion-dollar initiative becoming the second country after India in the BRICS bloc not to endorse the mega project."[https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/brazil-becomes-second-brics-country-after-india-not-to-join-chinas-bri/article68809530.ece]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | China and India's historical disagreements regarding membership expansion will shape the prospects of aspiring BRICS countries and the organization's future.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | 2019 source: "China is playing the leading role in this process, as a main investor and importer of FDI (foreign direct investment) and trade partner in BRICS group... Trade and investment cooperation of China with other BRICS countries exerts very strong impact on the development of their economies. China continue to deepen its economic ties with other BRICS countries and open up its financial market to serve as a cushion against rising global uncertainty. Development of Intra-BRICS trade and investment cooperation is very important in the context of trade war imposed by the USA against China." '''But China is having economic weakness in 2024.'''[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1043951X19300100#:~:text=China%20is%20playing%20the%20leading,formation%20of%20their%20economic%20growth.]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Better demographics and a country being a stronger power ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/political-demography-how-population-changes-are-reshaping-international-security-and-national Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics]
| + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/GXmVr With Great Demographics Comes Great Power], Foreign Affairs, July/August 2019
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/geosci.2023043?viewType=HTML Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past], Aim Press, 2023
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.isa-world.com/news/?tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=410&cHash=75d2b3ca20ed102940b3a64ce8f44b4e The Geopolitical Importance of Demographic Power], 2018
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Countries by population ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/ Countries by population size]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == World economics and trends ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Global weekly economic update ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html Global weekly economic update], Deloitte
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === GNP by country ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Per capita:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(PPP)_per_capita List of countries by GNI (PPP) per capita]
| + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(nominal)_per_capita List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Total GNP:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_national_income Gross national income]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gnp-gross-national-product GNP by country], Macrotrends
| + | |
| − | *[https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/gnp-by-country GNP by country], Worldpopulationreview.com
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === 2023 ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-105-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/ Visualizing the $105 Trillion World Economy in One Chart], August 2023
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-richest-countries-2023-gdp-per-capita/ Ranked: The World’s 25 Richest Countries by GDP per Capita], 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == 2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oevcTSV0tO8 Stephen Kotkin on Lost in Translation: World Order & Word Order | HISPBC Ch.1], 2024
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqFZam02Kmg Stephen Kotkin on Principles & Pragmatism: Walking the Geopolitical Tightrope | HISPBC Ch.2], 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == World News ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''World news Western perspective:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://wng.org/ World News] - Christian website
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/ World news - United Press International]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.reuters.com/world/ World News - Reuters]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.wsj.com/world?mod=nav_top_section Wall Street Journal]
| + | |
| − | *[https://apnews.com/world-news World news - Associated Press]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''World News - NonWestern perspective:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world Times of India - World news]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news Hindustan Times - World news]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.wionews.com/world Wion News - World]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.rt.com/news/ Russia Today - World news]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@HT-Videos/videos Hindustan Times - YouTube]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_gUM8rL-Lrg6O3adPW9K1g/videos WION news]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@BusinessBasicsYT/videos Business basics] - Mixed bag of quality, geopolitics
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Non-Western international politics YouTube channels perspective:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CaspianReport/videos The Caspian Report], [[Azerbaijan]] based, Mixed bag in terms of quality
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@JoeBlogs/videos Joe Blogs]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Israel ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Times of Israel:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.timesofisrael.com/ Times of Israel website]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TimesofIsrael/videos Times of Israel - YouTube]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | CBN News:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CBNnewsonline/search?query=israel CBN News - Israel], YouTube
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | General:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEoVzKyD_IM Here’s THE TRUTH About the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (A Comprehensive History)] by Ben Shapiro
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo77sTGpngQ Why Evangelical Christians Love Israel | VICE on HBO]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.JNS.org JNS] <small>(BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff)</small>, [https://www.Israelnationalnews.com INN], and at times center leaning [https://www.i24news.tv I24], or left leaning - [https://www.Ynetnews.com Ynet] or [https://www.timesofisrael.com TOI]. [https://www.israelhayom.com/ ILH] is center leaning. Note. ''JPost'' is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure ''Reuters'' stuff.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdQ2KKj9Gec Jonathan Cahn: Seeing God's Guiding Hand Over Israel]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: [https://digitalcommons.liberty.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1023&context=pretrib_arch Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy?] and [https://www.chosenpeople.com/is-the-modern-state-of-israel-2/ Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy] and [https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/nov/30/unveiling-mysteries-of-israel-four-biblical-prophe/ Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now].
| + | |
| − | ==== Miracles ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===== Six Day War =====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wMIq6X4zi4 GOD'S HAND IN THE SIX DAY WAR]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i3uIz7hoYs Six Days of Miracles]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR-8pmLBStA Did God Help Israel During The Six Day War?]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR-8pmLBStA Fmr Israeli Commander: God Protected us in Battle]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change United States involvement in regime change]
| + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_United_States_military_operations Timeline of United States military operations]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Trends:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Pointless and costly wars such as the [[Iraq War]] and [[War in Afghanistan]] are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general [[Sun Tzu]] wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more [[isolationism|isolationist]] sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: [[Essay: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?|Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?]]). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful [[diplomacy]]. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: [[Just War Theory]]).
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ0IUCMpgEE Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector]).
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == NATO ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaZQhrwSBcE What is NATO? Explained in 1 minute]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | As of 2024, the USA pays 16% of NATO's total budget.[https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/us-contributes-16-nato-annual-budget-not-two-thirds-2024-05-31/]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/nato-intfo-other-info/home NATO] - Google sites
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEoY7OT3xwE Why NATO may have to stop a Russian invasion - without the US], Daily Mail, 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO%E2%80%93Russia_relations#:~:text=In%201991%2C%20as%20the%20Soviet,aim%20was%20to%20join%20NATO. NATO–Russia relations]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Expansion of NATO ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? No, it did not view:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://bitterwinter.org/myth-of-the-american-coups-in-ukraine-4-the-nato/ Did the NATO Really Promise Not to Expand Eastward?], Bitter Winter
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwe8l8to8pA Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion] - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
| + | |
| − | *"But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68359252]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Historian Mary E. Sarotte on the issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cTFk6MNUHQ&t=2576s Historian Mary E. Sarotte argues that there was no promised for NATO not to expand eastward]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TzhcIQs2Uo Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate], Hoover Institution
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG3SeHuFke0 Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate], Washington History Seminar
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_4nAyW6crg MARY ELISE SAROTTE - Not One Inch: Nato's Eastward Expansion]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHj0K9PofCw Lecture of Mary Sarotte «Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqaHW3BRVBI Mary Sarotte, "Not One Inch"]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *''Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate'' by Mary E. Sarotte. Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Middle of the road view:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/40/4/7/12126/Deal-or-No-Deal-The-End-of-the-Cold-War-and-the-U Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion ], MIT
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVt-WXTLIZM Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Yes, it did view'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mciLyG9iexE Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFGEhtnUzJQ Gravitas Ukraine Direct: Did NATO betray Russia?]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io0QGDhbLvw Why NATO is a threat to Putin | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on1RrmspFIQ War in Ukraine is the fault of US and NATO | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwe8l8to8pA Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer] - Anti-NATO expansion
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xzeZ6nzECs Putin Tells Oliver Stone about his NATO Concerns]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRzhUO-Pz40 Part 1: Oliver Stone Interviews Putin on U.S.-Russia Relations, 2016 Election, Snowden & NATO]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x8zS1jT9JM Part 2: Oliver Stone Interviews Putin on U.S.-Russia Relations, 2016 Election, Snowden & NATO]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === NATO's soft underbellys ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAj6TjqK3Sk Russian MP’s Big Claim: Putin Planning to Attack NATO's Underbelly? | Vantage with Palki Sharma]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/05/nato-must-contest-russian-moves-its-southern-underbelly/367335/ NATO Must Contest Russian Moves in Its Southern Underbelly]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == China and Christianity ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.businessinsider.com.au/new-religious-breakdown-in-china-14-2015-8 This fascinating map shows the new religious breakdown in China]
| + | |
| − | == What would a post-communist China look like? ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV7PuqlMOzI What Comes After the Communist Party in China?]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == World map ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://geology.com/world/world-map.shtml World Map]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === World map by population ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-cartogram World map by population], 2018
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === John Mearsheimer's view ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://mearsheimer.substack.com/ John Mearsheimer's substack]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aNMOEQ0248 The 2022 Holberg Debate w/ John Mearsheimer and Carl Bildt: Ukraine, Russia, China and the West]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBiV1h7Dm5E John Mearsheimer: The West is playing Russian roulette]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcYGhBvyVoE Russians and NATO both feel that they cannot lose] - War could drag on at a lower level for years and this is a dangerous situation.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huDriv7IAa0 Does the US still have the Capacity for Global Dominance? | Prof. John Mearsheimer], 2024, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqQBVCfcMoQ Ukraine, Taiwan and The True Cause of War | John Mearsheimer], 2024. Mearsheimer says the war in Ukraine revealed shortcomings of US Defense policies. Mearsheimer believes USA will fix its industrial capacity problems and upgrade its drone capabilities so it can better fight a potential war with China. Mearsheimer says that the USA's unpreparedness is a vestigage of the former unipolar world and that major power politics has returned. [[Essay: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?|US populace embracing isolationism more in terms of young people, etc.]], but Mearsheimer argues that Washington/military industrial complex ignores what public wants.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huDriv7IAa0]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in [[realpolitik]] type behavior.[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huDriv7IAa0]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Limitations/problems of Mearsheimer's view ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14kEIoXdVwE Why John Mearsheimer is wrong about realism, great power politics and history], The Burning Archive
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QojwHRTCWls Here’s Where Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer Disagree]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Peter Zeihan's view ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRT7P-VKM0k The Old World Order Is About To Collapse - Peter Zeihan] - 2022
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVyf7xhzgTs Peter Zeihan Warns End Of Great Powers Will Bring Famine And Destruction For Smaller Nations] -2022
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio] -2022 (Ray Dahlio has some good ideas, but he is inconsistent when it comes to China[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1iv0q_SW3E])
| + | |
| − | === Changing civilizational world order ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TmmhwQs10s Why the post-1989 global system is facing collapse]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3PXFA1xaCk Civilizational World Order w/Dr. Steve Turley] - Listen to this
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Anti-American axis (China/Russia/Iran/North Korea ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw7xG1KGC_U The US's enemies want to shatter the world order]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Globalization of trade ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.cato.org/publications/globalization-isnt-going-anywhere Globalization of Trade Isn’t Going Anywhere. World trade in goods may have plateaued but did so at historically high levels], Meanwhile, other indicia of globalization—trade in services, digital trade, cross‐border investment and migration, and cultural exchange—continue to increase. CATO, 2023
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Books ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *''[https://www.amazon.com/Guns-Germs-Steel-Fates-Societies/dp/0393061310/ref=sr_1_1?crid=HULJ4CBFYE78&keywords=guns+germs+and+steel+by+jared+diamond+hardcover&qid=1704377922&s=books&sprefix=guns+%2Cstripbooks%2C92&sr=1-1 Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies]'' by Jared Diamond Ph.D.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *''[https://www.amazon.com/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalization/dp/B09CS8FRRD/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?crid=14MMYVFQO4WE0&keywords=peter+zeihan&qid=1704378502&s=books&sprefix=peter+zeihan+%2Cstripbooks%2C90&sr=1-1-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGY&psc=1 The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization]'' by Peter Zeihan
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | * [https://sites.google.com/view/peoplewhofallforpropaganda/home Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda]
| + | |
| − | == Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/imperialism-isolationism/home Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism] - Google sites
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | == Military, wars, mass murder and expense ==
| + | |
| − | [[File:WWII collage.JPG|thumbnail|right|300px|[[WWII]] photo montage]]
| + | |
| − | "The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History ([[Francis Fukuyama|Fukuyama]]) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor [[Eric Kaufmann]], Twitter/X.[https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1744338524994748831], See: [https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace War and Peace].
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === War, debt and the collapse of empires ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://erikhare.com/2018/09/21/war-debt-collapse-of-the-empire/ War Debt & Collapse of the Empire], 2018
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/world-history/ancient-medieval/classical-states-and-empires/a/rise-and-fall-of-empires#:~:text=Some%20of%20the%20broad%20factors,Environmental%20issues Comparing how empires fall], Khan Academy
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/whp-origins/era-4-regional/41-systems-collapse-betaa/a/read-empires-fall-beta Empires Fall], Khan Academy
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === How long do wars last? ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Wars start out as wars of maneuver. If a war a war of maneuver doesn't achieve victory in 6 months, then it most cases it turns into a war of attrition (Wars of attrition are more common than insurgencies after a war).[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6F7yqIMRdI]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Wars are ended by removing an enemies will to fight and/or ability to fight (Productive capacity)[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6F7yqIMRdI]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - [[Sun Tzu]]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *"What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *"There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | [[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a [[bipartisan]], nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | The Center for Strategic and International Studies article ''How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine''
| + | |
| − | {{Cquote|Analyzing data compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on conflict termination since 1946, 26 percent of interstate wars like Ukraine end in less than 30 days and another 25 percent end in less than a year. Wars that end within a month last on average eight days, and 44 percent end in a ceasefire or peace agreement. Of wars that last over a month but less than a year, only 24 percent end in a ceasefire. When interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>}}
| + | |
| − | [[File:Georgetown 2.jpg|thumbnail|center|300px|[[Georgetown University]]'s Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.<ref>[https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-it-end-what-past-wars-tell-us-about-how-save-ukraine#:~:text=Wars%20that%20end%20within%20a,average%2C%20resulting%20in%20sporadic%20clashes. How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine], 2022, Center for Strategic and International Studies website </ref>]]
| + | |
| − | {{Clear}}
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Just war vs. realist view of war ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=takl4fei1pQ War and International Politics ], John Mearsheimer (He discusses realist view of war vs. Just War doctrine of war)
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Winning the peace vs. winning a war ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wdo5VRuZd5k How Not to Win the War, but the Peace - Stephen Kotkin]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9ICLTWy-xg Stephen Kotkin: Winning the peace vs. winning a war] - short version
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Military ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxrfxN99snM US Army fails to meet annual recruitment target, again]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tscfH9EAIkU US Military's Biggest Recruiting Crisis Is Here]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | === Wars and warlike natures ===
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Studies:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/democracies-more-prone-start-wars-except-when-theyre-not-82879 Democracies More Prone to Start Wars – Except When They're Not]
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Democratic peace theory and related matters ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory Democratic peace theory]
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| − | | + | |
| − | === Mass murder ===
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Atheism and Mass Murder|Atheism and mass murder]]
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| − | *[https://www.conservapedia.com/Atheism_and_Mass_Murder#Explanatory_links_between_atheism_and_mass_murder Godless leftists with utopian visons are more mass murder prone than godless libertarians]
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| − | | + | |
| − | === Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes ===
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://voxday.net/2023/11/09/do-they-want-right-wing-death-squads/ Do they want right-wing death squads]
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| − | | + | |
| − | === Military concepts ===
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[[Sun Tzu]]
| + | |
| − | *[[Sun Tzu quotes]]
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| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_warfare Political warfare]
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| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth-generation_warfare Fifth-generation warfare]
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| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymmetric_warfare Asymmetric warfare]
| + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irregular_warfare Irregular warfare]
| + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawfare Lawfare]
| + | |
| − | *[[Carl von Clausewitz]]
| + | |
| − | *[[List of military strategies and concepts]]
| + | |
| − | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth-generation_warfare Fourth generation warfare]
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| − | | + | |
| − | === Military competence and incompetence ===
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@Taskandpurpose/videos Task and purpose] (Chris Cappy is a former US Army infantryman and Iraq Veteran. I cover geopolitics, history, weapon systems and all things military related — I do this from a veteran's perspective.).
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| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Military competence ====
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| − | | + | |
| − | *Deliberate Discomfort: How U.S. Special Operations Forces Overcome Fear and Dare to Win by Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable by Jason B.A. Van Camp and Andy Symonds. Ballast Books (February 18, 2020)
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| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Military incompetence ====
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| − | | + | |
| − | *On the Psychology of Military Incompetence by Norman F Dixon. Basic Books; Illustrated edition (May 31, 2016)
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| − | | + | |
| − | *Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)
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| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Are we headed towards WW3? It's not likely - at least not yet ====
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://today.tamu.edu/2024/02/22/are-we-heading-for-world-war-iii-texas-am-experts-say-its-unlikely/ Are We Heading For World War III? Texas A&M Experts Say It’s Unlikely]: "While recent wars have sparked speculation about an ensuing global conflict, military scholars say comparisons to past world wars are largely overblown."
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://news.sky.com/story/are-we-heading-for-world-war-three-experts-give-their-verdicts-13116540 Are we heading for World War Three? Experts give their verdicts]
| + | |
| − | *[https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1ew4r4i/cmv_were_not_heading_towards_world_war_3_or_a/ We are not headed towards WW3 - at least not yet]
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| − | *"If I remember correctly, the last anxiety about world war in international public opinion appeared during the Cold War in the 1960s and 1970s... It is both thought-provoking and alarming that talk of world war has become heated and part of official discourse once again after half a century. Looking around, however, it seems that no one is really making plans to start a such a war."[https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/are-we-heading-into-world-war-iii]
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| − | | + | |
| − | ==== Victories in war are not necessarily won by winning battles. Wars can be won by eliminating the enemies will to fight which is a critical factor in winning wars ====
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| − | [[File:Sun Tzu portrait.jpg|thumbnail|right|200px|"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."- [[Sun Tzu]] ]]
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| − | In the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese consistently lost the bigger battles and the U.S. General Westmoreland was obsessed about body counts that showed the USA was "winning". However, although the Tet Offensive was not ultimately not a successful operation militarily, it did win on the propaganda front because it showed the American public that the Vietcong were not on their last legs. Specifically, the Tiet Offensive showed that the Vietmanese still had power to oppose the USA via a large operation and as a result of this the American public soured on the war. One does not win wars solely by winning battles. Breaking the will of the enemy is a key component as far as how wars are won (And wars are generally governed by politics[https://vimeo.com/397320700]). Near the end of the Vietnam War at the peace negotiations, the American officer Harry Summers said to a Vietcong colonel that the USA won on the battlefield and the Vietcong did not. The Vietcong colonel replied back, that's true, but it is also irrelevant.[https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/winning-battles-losing-wars] It was the political context that was more important in the Vietnam War than the military context. But ultimately the the USA won the peace in Vietnam as evidenced by all the Coca Cola now being sold in Vietnam and the current cordial relations between the USA and Vietnam.
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| − | | + | |
| − | One of the things the Russians may face in Ukraine if they win a pyrrhic victory is a Ukrainian insurgency that wears down the Russians. Most insurgencies are not successful and last about 10 years.[https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG965.sum.pdf][https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/News/Display/Article/3890242/the-challenges-of-next-gen-insurgency/#:~:text=Insurgency%2C%20or%20something%20like%20it,discover%20its%20dangers%20and%20inefficacy.] However, The Troubles insurgency in Northern Ireland lasted about 30 years and perhaps the same could happen in Ukraine due to the bitterness of the conflict and due to the intensity of Ukrainian nationalism. This may come into play because of two factors: First, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmeZRN6YrN0 Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine], ABC News video, July 2023. This shows that some of the will to fight in the Kremlin may have been diminished (But Putin likely calls the shots so this issue is not a definitive point). Secondly, as far as the Kursk invasion, the inability of the Russian state to protect its borders shows this: [https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/05/03/russia-has-failed-as-a-state/ Russia has failed as a state], Modern Diplomacy, 2023 and [https://archive.ph/Jqu2p#selection-637.0-637.99 Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years], Fortune magazine, January 23, 2023 and [https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/will-russia-become-failed-state-is.html Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?]
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| − | | + | |
| − | "Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - [[Sun Tzu]]
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| − | | + | |
| − | == Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://washingtondc.jhu.edu/news/do-sanctions-actually-work-experts-evaluate-the-efficacy-of-this-widely-used-foreign-policy-tool/ DO SANCTIONS ACTUALLY WORK? EXPERTS EVALUATE THE EFFICACY OF THIS WIDELY USED FOREIGN POLICY TOOL] (“What we found is that it works in ways that we don’t want it to work. And it doesn’t work in the ways that we want it to work,” said Middle East expert Vali Nasr, one of the book’s authors.)
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| − | | + | |
| − | == International agreements ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==== International agreements often fail to achieve their intended results ====
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | While international agreements certainly have their place and peace/peacemaking are always a good thing to pursue, research indicates that most international agreements fail to achieve their aims ([https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2122854119 International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects], PNAS, August 1, 2022, 119 (32) e2122854119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2122854119). Given men's frequent cases of poor thinking/planning and the sinfulness of human nature, this is not entirely surprising.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Also, as far as the Russian/Ukrainian peace negotiations, agreements are only as good as the trustworthiness of the people signing them. And unfortunately, Russia/Putin/Biden Administration are all corrupt and shown [https://www.conservapedia.com/Essay:_The_SPECIFIC_MONTH_OF_APRIL_2022_was_not_a_pivotal_point_in_politics_that_will_affect_politics_for_30_years#Analysis HERE as can be seen in points #1, #2 and #3].
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| − | | + | |
| − | And when I look at the Minsk Agreements, former agreements and promises mentioned below, I see Russia/Ukraine/West breaking agreements/promises. Also, as far as the Minsk Agreements, as can be seen below, Russia appears to be the biggest violaters of the Minsk Agreements, with Ukraine breaking the agreements also.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Russia, West, Ukraine and the West all acting badly in terms of Minsk Agreements, agreements and promises:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Russia acting badly:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-not-ukraine-is-serial-violator-of-ceasefire-agreement/ Both Russia and Ukraine Were Violaters of Minks Agreements, but Russia was a bigger violater], 2017
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4443781-history-shows-that-no-ceasefire-or-treaty-with-russia-can-be-trusted/ History shows that no ceasefire or treaty with Russia can be trusted], The Hill, 2024
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| − | | + | |
| − | TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016, U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations: "Russia has acted contrary to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Incidents at Sea Agreement. Russia has altered the human rights landscape within its own country, decreasing democracy and begging questions about the future of governance, not just in Moscow, but across the Federation. Moreover, Russia has joined the civil war in Syria and begun militarizing the Arctic."<ref>[https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-114shrg28077/html/CHRG-114shrg28077.htm#:~:text=While%20Russia%20is%20currently%20in,between%20500%20and%205%2C500%20kilometers. RUSSIAN VIOLATIONS OF BORDERS, TREATIES, AND HUMAN RIGHTS]</ref>
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | West and Ukraine acting badly:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-disappointed-merkels-words-minsk-140859136.html Merkel admits that West were not sincere about Minsk Agreements], Yahoo News, 2022
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/15/west-promises-developing-countries-summit-paris-climate-vaccines-budgets The West has broken its promises to developing countries – and we’re all paying the price], The Guardian, 2023
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| − | | + | |
| − | == World politics, peak oil consumption, technology, forecasts, China and Russia ==
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''China, economic decline, green energy adoption and oil consumption:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://archive.ph/QcD1u#selection-1481.0-1481.68 Beijing is no longer hiding its panic about the state of its economy], September 2024
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| − | | + | |
| − | *China is Russia's biggest customer of oil. [https://archive.ph/X9IAg#selection-1239.1-1239.126 China’s oil demand dips, ticks down as economic ebb eases fuel imports], August 2024. China has reduced its oil imports in recent months, as lower economic activity and green energy adoption have depressed demand.
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| − | | + | |
| − | '''USA's oil production:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2024/09/26/why-us-oil-production-is-65-ahead-of-last-years-record-pace/ Why U.S. Oil Production Is 6.5% Ahead Of Last Year’s Record Pace], September 2024. Ongoing growth in U.S. oil output remains a key driver of the global energy market. U.S. crude oil production will almost certainly set a second consecutive record this year, reflecting strong demand and advances in extraction technologies, particularly in shale oil. If Trump is elected, USA oil production may further improve.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Saudi oil production:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.newsweek.com/saudi-arabia-ramp-oil-production-blow-putin-1959817 Blow to Putin's War Machine As Saudi Arabia Ramps Up Oil Production], September 2024 (If Trump is elected, US-Saudi relations may improve)
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| − | | + | |
| − | '''Nuclear power growing due to technological advances:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/nuclear-power-expansion-fuelled-by-small-modular-reactors-says-iaea/51194/ Nuclear power expansion fuelled by small modular reactors, says IAEA'], Nuclear energy capacity is now expected to increase 2.5 times by 2050 compared to current levels.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Short-term oil price forecast:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-primed-explosive-short-082500855.html Crude Oil Primed for Explosive Short-Squeeze as Bearish Sentiment Peaks], September 2024
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | '''Forecast of world oil consumption:'''
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-global-energy-production-in-2023/ Charted: What Powered the World in 2023], Visual Capitalist
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2023/08/06/global-energy-trends-insights-from-the-2023-statistical-review-of-world-energy/ Global Energy Trends: Insights From The 2023 Statistical Review Of World Energy], Forbes, 2023
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth104/node/1345 Global energy sources by type over time], Graph/pie chart
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Exxon Mobil forecast:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/sustainability-and-reports/global-outlook#ExploretheGlobalOutlook ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050], [https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/global/files/global-outlook/2024/global-outlook-executive-summary.pdf Executive summary]
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| − | | + | |
| − | OPEC Forecasts:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Expects-Strong-Global-Oil-Demand-Growth-Through-to-2050.html Russia Expects Strong Global Oil Demand Growth Through to 2050], OilPrice.com, September 2024
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| − | | + | |
| − | *[https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-rolls-out-global-oil-outlook-2050-sees-no-peak-demand-2024-09-24/#:~:text=OPEC%20expects%20world%20oil%20demand,2050%20forecasts%20from%20the%20industry. OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth]
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| − | | + | |
| − | == Notes ==
| + | |
| − | {{Reflist}}
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