Wave (politics)

In politics, a wave is a better-than-expected showing by a political party (or, less frequently but still important, an individual candidate) in an election.

It can describe:

• A better-than-expected showing by the opposition party against the incumbent party, resulting in some cases taking control of a legislative chamber,
• A better-than-expected showing by the incumbent party against the opposition party, resulting in some cases gaining a veto-proof (or, at a minimum, a filibuster-proof) majority in a legislative chamber, or
• A candidate not expected to win but, due to the candidate's personal popularity and/or the ineptitude of the opposition, pulling off an upset.

The term coattail effect describes a wave which is the result of the personal popularity of the candidate at the top of the ballot (usually a candidate for President of the United States). Ronald Reagan's personal popularity led to many gains for the Republican Party during the 1980's; similarly Harry Truman's personal popularity led to not only an unexpected win in the 1948 Presidential election (which he was expected to lose badly due to a three-way split in his party) but the Democrats retaking both chambers of Congress.

United States Mid-term Elections

The wave phenomenon can happen in any election, but is most pronounced during mid-term elections (those elections held in even-numbered years not divisible by four, when the Presidency is not up for election) because 1) all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives are up for re-election (by contrast, only 1/3 of seats in the United States Senate -- 33 or 34 plus any special elections for unexpired terms -- are up for re-election in any election year) and 2) many states hold gubernatorial elections during mid-terms (so as not to compete with the Presidential election). Historically, in the mid-term elections during a Presidential administration (both in the first, and where applicable in the second), the opposition party outperforms the President's party.