Difference between revisions of "United States presidential election, 2012"

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The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, when the [[United States]] elects a president. Candidates are expected to file formal papers indicating their interest in early 2011; many were quietly lining up support throughout 2010.  The key early primaries are [[Iowa]] ([[caucus]]es), [[New Hampshire]], [[Nevada]] ([[caucus]]es), [[South Carolina]].<ref>The order of the early primaries is not yet finally determined as of the end of 2010.  For estimated dates, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref> [[Barack Obama approval ratings|
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The '''Presidential Election 2012''' was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.  By relying on extensive [[early voting]] driven by the [[Democrat]] political machine—which totaled more than 40% of the vote -- [[Barack Obama]] defeated [[Mitt Romney]] despite losing nearly 10 million votes from 2008, carrying fewer states and a smaller proportion of both the electoral vote and the popular vote than he had before.  Thus, Obama's "victory" was smaller in magnitude by four different measures than in 2008.
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Obama's declining popularity]] across all voter demographics has stirred talk he may face a primary challenge. [[Liberal]] [[Mike Bloomberg]] might run as an independent, splitting votes with [[Obama]].
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The '''Presidential Election 2012''' features "[[stalking horse]]" candidates in the primary, just as McCain backers used [[Fred Thompson]] in 2008 to prevent [[Mitt Romney]] from winning.  Thompson was undeservedly promoted by pro-life groups and the [[Fox News Channel]], and thereby siphoned off [[pro-life]]rs and other [[conservative]]s from Romney.  Then Thompson withdrew and endorsed McCain.  Stalking horses for Newt Gingrich in 2012 are expected to be Mike Huckabee and possibly Sarah Palin.  ''But the longer that Sarah Palin remains a candidate, the more difficult it becomes for Newt to gain socially conservative support to defeat Mitt''. Stalking horses for Mitt Romney are likely Rick Santorum and Chris Christie.
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Obama was leading in the polls by a substantial margin until the first presidential debate, which Romney won by the widest margin ever recorded by Gallup polling.  Afterward Romney surpassed Obama and was leading by 49-48% in both the Rasmussen and Gallup polls on [[Election Day]].
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__NOTOC__
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== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==
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As ''Conservapedia'' anticipated, this election was similar to the election of 1948, when the [[RINO]] [[Thomas Dewey]] was unable to attract grassroots voters despite the unpopularity of [[Harry Truman]] and the deteriorating economy.  A handful of [[swing state]]s selected the winner in both instances.
  
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
|-
 
|-
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!Candidate
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!Issue or Factor
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!Pros
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![[Mitt Romney]]
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!Cons
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![[Barack Obama]]
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![[Fox News]] Exposure
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!Comment
 
|-
 
|-
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|[[Mitt Romney]]
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|Social issues
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|First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state, cut taxes and the deficit, prodigious fundraiser and tireless campaigner, polling at 40% in the key early primary state of [[New Hampshire]], credited for helping [[Scott Brown]] win an upset victory for the seat long held by [[Ted Kennedy]]. Likely to be endorsed by [[Chris Christie]], [[Trent Lott]], [[Rick Santorum]], [[Marsha Blackburn]], [[Jim Talent]], etc.
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|Romney has downplayed social issues, but supports defunding [[Planned Parenthood]] and would likely nominate more [[conservative]] judges.
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|Once supported [[abortion]] rights and [[civil unions]], criticized by the [[Tea Party Express]] chairwoman and others due to his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which included mandatory insurance and taxpayer-funded abortion; struggles in Iowa and won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008.
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|Obama is vocally [[pro-abortion]], pro-[[same-sex marriage]], and pro-[[homosexual agenda]].
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|Sometimes on Fox
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|As with Tom Dewey's loss in 1948, Romney's running away from social issues could cost him the election.
 
|-
 
|-
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|[[Newt Gingrich]]
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|Economic issues
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|Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide, balanced the federal budget in the Clinton era, leader in fundraising, likely to obtain endorsement of older "right to life" groups against Mitt;<ref name="April 2010 Fundraising">http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2010/04/19/sarah-palin-lags-in-2012-fundraising-primary.html</ref> has the [[stalking horses]] of [[Mike Huckabee]] and possibly [[Sarah Palin]] to help him win the nomination.
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|Romney favors free enterprise, low taxes, and personal responsibility.
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|Struggled to win reelections in his own congressional district; voted to establish the federal Department of Education as a freshman Congressman, has previously endorsed [[liberal]] ideas like "[[cap-and-trade]]" ([[global warming]] hoax) and a [[Con Con]]; resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of [[Bill Clinton]]; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a women 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office; Sarah Palin is suggesting that she may not pull out and this would prevent Newt from defeating Mitt.
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|Obama says he inherited the crisis from [[Republicans]].
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|Promoted almost daily by Fox
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|The advantage here is Romney's.
 
|-
 
|-
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|[[Marco Rubio]]
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|Leadership
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|The Republican Party will want this freshman [[U.S. Senator]] in the primary debates, which he's then likely to win because of his charisma, stronger stance on social issues, and [[Tea Party]] appeal; in the general election he would pull [[Florida]] and many Hispanic voters away from the Democrats.
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|Romney was head of [[Bain Capital]], was Governor of [[Massachusetts]] and led the 2002 Olympics.
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|Will face the liberal [[double standard]]: what's OK for Obama (e.g., inexperience) is somehow not OK for a [[conservative]]. Some Republican voters may think he's really running to be selected as Vice President.
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|Obama took advantage of  [[Hurricane Sandy]] to create an impression that he was a competent leader, but, a week after the storm, its effects are still being felt.
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|Did not seek Palin endorsement; sometimes on Fox
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|Both candidates have proven leadership skills, but Obama's response to Hurricane Sandy is being celebrated by the liberal press.
 
|-
 
|-
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|[[Jeb Bush]]
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|Likability
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|Bush-adviser [[Dick Cheney]] predicts that a Republican will become president in 2012, which would force Jeb to wait until 2020 if he doesn't run now; Jeb is giving interviews as though he were a candidate and can enter the race late and still win the nomination; [[George W. Bush]]'s book sold far better than expectations, making the name an asset again; Jeb could unite the Republican Party with a late candidacy; Jeb is less likely to wait for 2016 as [[Obama]]'s approval ratings fall and a Republican victory seems likely in 2012; Jeb is more conservative than his brother [[George W. Bush]], and sure to win pivotal [[Florida]]; Jeb has already criticized Palin as a rival candidate might;<ref>In a Newsmax interview in February 2010, Jeb criticized Palin by saying, "my belief is in 2010 and 2012, public leaders need to have intellectual curiosity." [http://www.newser.com/story/81720/jeb-bush-sarah-palin-not-intellectual-enough.html]</ref> Jeb published an editorial on Jan. 3, 2011 taking credit for saving Florida [[public schools]] with vouchers.<ref>http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2011/jan/03/jeb-bush/jeb-bush-touts-education-gains-wall-street-journal/</ref>
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|Romney's likability rating stands at only 31%, and has been lower.
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|Polls unusually poorly (54-34%) against [[Barack Obama]];<ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/14/obama-would-beat-jeb-bush-big-says-poll/</ref> Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012, when he could still be tagged with negatives via George; not liked by many Tea Partiers; might wait to run when Hillary runs.
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|Obama's likability rating is at 48%.
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|Rarely appears on Fox
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|Advantage to Obama.
 
|-
 
|-
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|[[Michele Bachmann]]
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|Debates
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|A [[movement conservative]] who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's [[State of the Union]] address in January 2011, Bachmann is increasingly popular with the [[Tea Party movement]]; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in [[Minnesota]].  Did very well at [[CPAC]] in Feb. 2011.
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|Romney is a good debater.
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|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; she's said she's not running for president this soon<ref name="Bachmann"/> and pulled out of the "Values Voter Summit" ([[Family Research Council]] convention) straw poll in September 2010; has never won statewide office; not picking up strong [[Tea Party]] support, as [[Ron Paul]] did not support her for a House leadership position and did not join her [[Tea Party]] caucus.
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|Obama struggles without a teleprompter, but will benefit from liberal moderators.
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|Rarely on Fox anymore, which prefers Palin and especially Newt
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|Advantage to Romney.
 
|-
 
|-
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|[[Chris Christie]]
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|VPs
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|Leads [[Barack Obama]] in Zogby's polling (January 2011), takes on the [[public school]] teachers' unions and is a fiscal reformer who puts liberals in their place, has an unscripted style and appearance that is a refreshing alternative to the Teleprompter President
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|Paul Ryan has youth, energy, and likability, but is part of the Big Government Republican leadership in Congress, which has an ultra-low approval rating; Romney has been criticized for not using Ryan more effectively in the campaign.<ref>{{cite news|title=In GOP recipe, too little Ryan for conservatives' taste|work=Washington Post|page=A1|date=September 25, 2012|author=Felicia Sonmez and David Fahrenthold}}</ref>
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|Picked a [[pro-abortion]] running mate when he ran for governor, and has little experience with national issues; repeatedly says he is not running; campaigned for [[RINO]] [[Mike Castle]] in [[Delaware]] who was then defeated; neither added [[New Jersey]] to one of the lawsuits against [[ObamaCare]] nor joined an [[amicus brief]] against it; ''will probably support [[Mitt Romney]]''.
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|Joe Biden is a gaffe-prone goofball, but is protected by the [[liberal media]].
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|Promoted heavily by Fox
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|Toss-up here, or maybe a slight edge to Ryan.
 
|-
 
|-
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|[[Haley Barbour]]
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|Fundraising
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|Rose in ranking based on the victory of his choice as the new [[RNC]] chairman;<ref>http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/14/barbour-defeats-boehner-proxy-battle-control-rnc-s/</ref> has a [[conservative]] record as governor of [[Mississippi]]; was a consummate lobbyist and could raise many tens of millions for a campaign
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|Mitt did not turn out to be as strong a fundraiser as expected, nor were the [[Super PAC]]s effective on his side; some of their comments to the press, like [[Karl Rove]] criticizing [[Todd Akin]], were actually hurtful.
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|Rarely seen at conservative conferences, and a Republican from the [[Deep South]] may have trouble attracting independent voters
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|[[Limousine liberals]] have donated millions to Obama's reelection, and once again the Dems outspend the Republicans.
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|Rarely on Fox
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|Advantage to Obama.
 
|-
 
|-
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|[[Sarah Palin]]
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|Gaffes/staying on message
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|Empathetic, attracts crowds, personally [[pro-life]], fiscal conservative, popular, track record of supporting upset victories in primaries; has a popular television series and book tour that emphasizes the grassroots rather than the "inside the Beltway" mentality.
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|[[Romney's 47 percent comment|47% of American don't pay income tax and won't vote for me]]<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/0920/Are-Romney-s-47-percent-comments-beginning-to-move-the-polls-video|title=Are Romney's '47 percent' comments beginning to move the polls?|work=Christian Science Monitor|accessdate=September 25, 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2011/1212/Mitt-Romney-gaffes-11-times-the-button-down-candidate-should-have-buttoned-up/My-job-is-not-to-worry-about-those-people|title=Mitt Romney gaffes: 11 times the button-down candidate should have buttoned up|work=Christian Science Monitor|author= Linda Feldmann|accessdate=September 25, 2012}}</ref>/London Olympics not ready comment<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.cnn.com/2012/07/27/politics/romney-london-troubles/index.html|title=Romney trip begins in shambles|work=CNN|author=[[Jim Acosta]]|date=July 27, 2012|accessdate=September 25, 2012}}</ref>
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|Relies heavily on [[Facebook]], but it was crushed by ''The King's Speech'' at the [[Oscars]] - an omen, perhaps?  Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal.<ref>http://community.adn.com/node/112712</ref> Appointed a former [[Planned Parenthood]] board member to the [[Alaska]] Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; could merely be a [[stalking horse]] for [[Newt Gingrich]]; lags in fundraising despite publicity,<ref name="April 2010 Fundraising"/> came in a disappointing fifth in the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010 and fared badly at [[CPAC]].  Favorability rating is only 22%, compared to a 48% unfavorable rating.<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43265.html</ref>  Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and recently many Republicans from [[George W. Bush]] to [[Peggy Noonan]] have been critical of her.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/Vox-News/2010/1106/Republican-establishment-takes-on-Sarah-Palin</ref>
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|"[[You didn't build that]]"
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|Promoted heavily by Fox
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|Obama has a media covering up his gaffes any way they can, but Romney has better control of his message. Advantage to Romney.
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|-
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|[[Rand Paul]]
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|Could be the next [[Ronald Reagan]]; is the heir-apparent to massive support for [[Ron Paul]]; won the [[U.S. Senate]] seat by a 56-44% landslide in 2010, despite an intense effort by [[liberals]] to smear and defeat him; is 100% [[pro-life]].
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|Rand has strong momentum now from his landslide victory, but his dad will likely run again in 2012 while Rand pursues his Senate career. Rand could first campaign for his dad and then become the candidate if voters think he has a better opportunity to win, but time is running our for Rand to assert himself as the candidate in 2012.
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|Other stations have him on more than Fox does
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|-
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|[[Jim DeMint]]
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−
|strong support by social conservatives, libertarians<ref>Jim Demint has the best favorable-unfavorable rating of anyone at CPAC 2010.</ref>, Tea Party, and evangelicals; a tenacious advocate willing to criticize Obama
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−
|stated at a conservative conference in July 2010 that he is not running for president, but after [[Mike Pence]] pulled out in Jan. 2011 Jim DeMint is showing interest again; a Southern conservative who will need to work hard to gain support in Iowa and New Hampshire, the key early primary states<ref>http://politics.theatlantic.com/2010/02/the_2012_dark_horse_is.php</ref>
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|Often on Fox
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−
|-
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|[[Ron Paul]]
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−
|Won the [[CPAC]] poll, is strong in national polls, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican
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−
|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; opposed Bachmann for a leadership position; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office.
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|Excluded by Fox because he opposes the war
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|-
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|[[Steve King]]
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|A conservative Iowa congressman who could win the [[Iowa caucuses]]; resonates well with independents; recommended by Bachmann<ref name="Bachmann">http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/app/blogs/politically_speaking/?p=1205</ref>
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|Not well known yet; has never won statewide office.
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|Excluded by Fox
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|-
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|[[Mike Huckabee]]
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|Pro-life, pro-Second Amendment and pro-Bible; strong in polling, particularly among evangelicals
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|Stuck at 20-30% without any way to gain broader support needed to win; could be a [[stalking horse]] for Newt; also supporter of big government, as governor raised taxes and increased state spending, released man who later killed officers; disliked by [[CPAC]]-types and by [[Club for Growth]]
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|Promoted by Fox with his own show
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|-
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|[[Rick Perry]]
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|Conservative-talking governor who has run [[Texas]] for a decade (since [[George W. Bush]] became president); crushed [[RINO]] [[Kay Bailey Hutchison]] in the 2010 primary and then won a landslide in the general election against a popular opponent, carrying others to victory on his strong coattails; has a stellar jobs record in his State and which he can contrast with liberal-run states like [[California]], [[Nevada]], [[Illinois]], and [[New York]]
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|More conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed [[RINO]] [[Rudy Giuliani]] in 2008; tried to force all schoolgirls to receive the [[HPV vaccine]]; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing [[abortion]]; and responded to a reporter's question on Dec. 24, 2010 that he's definitely not running.
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|Rarely on Fox
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|-
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|[[Allen West]]
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|'America First' conservative patriot, Lt. Col West knows leadership from experience. He won the Florida [[U.S. House of Representatives]] seat in the [[2010 Midterm Elections]], and kept a high profile ever since.  Sports a crew cut, rises above petty [[inside the Beltway]] bickering, and carries a camouflage bag rather than a briefcase
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|New to national politics, not well known and maybe a future presidential candidate beyond 2012.
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|Rarely on Fox
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|-
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|[[Ken Cuccinelli]]
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|Has won statewide office. Leader in challenging [[ObamaCare]], advancing [[pro-life]] principles, and opposing the [[global warming]] hoax, including investigating Liberal [[University of Virginia]]'s involvement in the [[Climategate]] scandal. Wants to stop the homosexual agenda prevalent at the University of Virginia and other Virginia universities.
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|Only 42 years old, he'll probably become governor of Virginia before running for president.  Not as frequent a speaker at Tea Party events as others, such as Steve King and Michele Bachmann.  Also, Cuccinelli may be more influential on domestic policy in his current position than a president is.
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|On Fox because he's been so newsworthy
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|-
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|[[Herman Cain]]
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|Former Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem, and apparently is running. <ref>[http://dailycaller.com/2010/12/06/herman-cain-2012-exploratory-committee-could-come-soon/ Herman Cain: 2012 exploratory committee could come soon, DailyCaller, December 6, 2010]</ref>
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|Not well known outside the conservative sphere of influence.
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|Rarely on Fox
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|-
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|[[Tim Pawlenty]]
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|Young; popular in his home state of [[Minnesota]]
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|Still not well known outside of Minnesota; accepted stimulus funds after arguing against them; lacks a socially conservative base or any appeal that would attract support from the front-runners
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|Sometimes on Fox
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|-
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|[[Donald Trump]]
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|Business-savvy billionaire, well known <ref>[http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/05/trump-seriously-considering-presidential-bid/?test=latestnews Trump 'Seriously Considering' 2012 Presidential Bid, FOXNews, October 5, 2010]</ref>
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|Huge ego, no government experience
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|Sometimes on Fox
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|-
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|[[Rick Santorum]]
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|Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010
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|His all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, and Santorum endorsed Romney for President in 2008; could simply be a [[stalking horse]] for Romney
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|Promoted on Fox
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|-
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|[[Jan Brewer]]
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|Stands up to [[Hillary Clinton]] and [[Barack Obama]] on issue of [[illegal aliens]]
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|May be too busy as Governor of Arizona to run for president; lacks an image on issues other than immigration, and single-issue (immigration) candidates can rarely win a presidential nomination
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|Often on Fox due to Arizona lawsuit
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|-
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|[[Bobby Jindal]]
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|Conservative Governor of [[Louisiana]], strong critic of [[Obama]]'s handling of the [[Gulf oil spill]] in the summer of 2010
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|Not well known yet; says he's not running for president.
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|Promoted somewhat by Fox`
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−
|-
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|[[Mike Pence]]
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|Communicates a very strong conservative message: "a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order." Won straw poll held at the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010.  On Nov. 3rd, gave up his House leadership position apparently to prepare to run for president.
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|Announced on Jan. 27, 2011 that he's not running for president; previously he unsuccessfully proposed a "comprehensive" immigration plan that was widely criticized by conservatives; lacks legislative achievements; not well-known and has never won statewide office; either he or Huckabee could become a stalking horse for Newt Gingrich with respect to evangelical voters in Iowa
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|Sometimes on Fox
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−
|-
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|[[Mitch Daniels]]
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|[[Rust Belt]] Governor, effective critic of the Obama administration, being promoted heavily by [[neoconservatives]]
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|Sided with [[Democrats]] in 2011 in opposing [[right-to-work laws|right-to-work legislation]], unknown nationally, criticized when he tried to downplay significance of social issues, not telegenic, lacks a socially conservative base, and his state budget relies heavily on [[gambling]] revenue
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|Promoted by Fox; featured first on its "12 for 2012" series.
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|-
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|[[Todd Akin]]
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|A [[movement conservative]] from Missouri, which he serves as a congressman
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|Not well known yet
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|Rarely allowed on Fox`
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|-
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|[[Bob McDonnell]]
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|Won landslide election as [[Virginia]] governor; has Obama's height
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|Not widely known yet, but gave Republican response to State of the Union; seemed more conservative as a candidate than as governor
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|Rarely allowed on Fox
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|-
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−
|[[Gary Johnson]]
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−
|Former [[libertarian]] two-term governor of [[New Mexico]], he has been recommended by [[Ron Paul]] if Dr. Paul does not run for president; Johnson is a strong advocate of less government.
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|Like other libertarians but unlike most Republicans, Johnson favors legalizing marijuana, expanding legal [[immigration]] and allowing same-sex unions.  Given the likelihood that Ron Paul will run, there is very little potential support for Gary Johnson in this election cycle.
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|Excluded by Fox, which opposes libertarians
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−
|-
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|[[Rudy Giuliani]]
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−
|Widely respected for his post-9/11 leadership in New York City
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−
|Struck out completely as a candidate in 2008; very weak on important social issues; cross-dressing for comedic purposes when it suited him
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|Frequently on Fox
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−
|-
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|[[Dick Cheney]]
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|Prominent and consistent opposition to Obama
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|Of dubious health; has explicitly disavowed interest in running
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|Has been on Fox; daughter is a commentator for Fox
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−
|-
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|[[John Bolton]]
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|Expert on foreign policy and national security issues <ref>[http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9I4TTT82&show_article=1 POLITICAL INSIDER: John Bolton weighs a WH run, Breitbart, September 10, 2010]</ref>
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|Polarizing figure that Democrats refused to appoint to permanent UN position
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|Frequently on Fox; both focus on foreign policy
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−
|-
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|[[Jon Huntsman, Jr.]]
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|Has foreign policy and executive experience.
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|Worked in the Obama administration; Criticised the [[economic stimulus package]] as not being big enough, favors Comprehensive Immigration Reform, supports civil unions, and is a believer in man-made global warming.
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−
|Excluded by Fox
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−
|-
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|[[Fred Thompson]]
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−
|Former Republican Senator from [[Tennessee]], former presidential candidate, has a loyal following
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|Hollywood type, sided with McCain in campaign finance laws that the Supreme Court overturned.  
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|Sometimes on Fox
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|-
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|[[Scott Brown]]
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−
|Proven ability to appeal to moderate voters even in a blue state
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|Inexperience; already voting with the Democrats in the Senate; voted to repeal [[DADT]]
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−
|Has been on Fox
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−
|-
+
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|[[John Thune]]
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|Defeated [[Tom Daschle]], relatively conservative voting record for a senator; also taller than Obama, and enjoys broad support
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|Announced on Feb. 22, 2011 that he's not running; may lack an essential "fire in the belly";<ref>http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/assessing-john-thunes-2012-cha.html?referrer=emaillink</ref> voted for TARP financial bailout<ref>http://hoghouseblog.com/2009/09/01/thune-wants-to-end-bailout-he-voted-for/</ref> and McCain-Feingold campaign finance; no-show at some conservative events; hasn't effectively criticized Obama; could simply become a stalking horse candidate for Gingrich
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|Rarely on Fox, but featured in a cover story by the ''Weekly Standard''
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|}
 
|}
  
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=== The Chess Game for the Republican Party ===
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Following the [[2012 Republican Primaries]] the [[Republican National Convention]] nominated the [[RINO]] [[Mitt Romney]] for president and [[Paul Ryan]] for vice president, and their strategy appears to be to duck and avoid social issues as much as possible.  The selection and Paul Ryan as VP and polling during the first half of the convention showed only a slight bounce in voter support for Romney.
  
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====Short form====
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== History ==
  
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The short-form analysis is that 2012 will be a replay of 2008 with Newt Gingrich trying to play the role of John McCain.  Also, Sarah Palin may run along with Mike Huckabee to contest for early primaries before dropping out and endorsing Newt.
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No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is at 7.9% (and real unemployment much higher).<ref>The [[economy]] grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President [[George H.W. Bush]]’s one term in office" - '''''who then lost reelection'''''. [https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0427/GDP-report-puts-Obama-in-economic-gray-zone.-Will-Republicans-profit] The September 7 labor report observed, "Just 63.5% of the working-age population was either employed or actively looking for work -- '''''a 30-year low'''''." [https://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/news/economy/august-jobs-report/index.html]</ref>
  
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The challenge for social conservatives is to run a candidate, such as Marco Rubio, who can capture the large Tea Party and evangelical voting blocs despite the stalking horse candidacies of Palin and Huckabee.
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==Campaign strategy==
 +
Both campaigns have focused on key [[Swing state|battleground state]]s: Florida, Ohio, Virginia.<ref name=cnnpoll>{{cite news|url=http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/03/new-polls-in-crucial-battlegrounds/?iref=allsearch|title=New polls in crucial battlegrounds|first=Paul |last=Steinhauser|date=October 3, 2012|accessdate=October 4, 2012}}</ref> A CNN summary of poll of likely voters taken just before the first debate had Obama leading Romney in Florida, 47% to 46%, in Virginia 48% to 46% and in Ohio 52% to 43%.<ref name=cnnpoll/>
  
−
====Long form====
+
Romney made a last-minute effort in [[Pennsylvania]], including both ads and personal appearances, but Obama ultimately won Pennsylvania's electoral votes.  The October 25 Rasmussen poll in Pennsylania had the state 51% for Obama and 46% for Romney, but the last minute effort did not move enough voters to change the outcome.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president|title=Election 2012: Pennsylvania President|accessdate=November 8, 2012}}</ref>
−
There are three key steps to the Republican nomination:  Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.  It's a chess game for Mitt and Newt to try to emerge from those three as the leader.
+
  
−
There are four basic components of the Republican Party.  '''To win the nomination, a candidate needs to obtain the support of at least two out of four''':<ref>Traditionally commentators have referred to the three legs of the Republican Party: the values voters, the small businessmen, and the national security supporters. While that model still has support, it fails to account for recent shifts (such as the Tea Party Movement) and the impact of new media (such as FoxNews).</ref>
+
==Fundraising==
 +
The Associated Press reports that the following people are the top donors to Mitt Romney's campaign and his "Restore Our Future" SuperPAC:<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/money-men-top-5-donors-romney-article-1.1187517|title=Money men: Who are the biggest donors to Mitt Romney's presidential campaign?|date=October 19, 2012|accessdate=November 6, 2012|work=New York Daily News}}</ref>
 +
{| class="wikitable"
 +
!Donor!!Amount
 +
|-
 +
|Sheldon Adelson, 79, owner of the Las Vegas Sands casino empire.
 +
|$34.2 million
 +
|-
 +
| Harold Simmons, 81, owner of Contran Corp.
 +
|$16 million
 +
|-
 +
| Bob J. Perry, 80, a Houston real estate investor
 +
| $15.3 million
 +
|-
 +
| Robert Rowling, 58, head of Dallas-based TRT Holdings
 +
| $4.1 million
 +
|-
 +
|William Koch, 72, an industrialist whose family owns an energy and mining conglomerate
 +
|$3 million
 +
|}
  
−
#social conservatives (pro-life, pro-marriage, pro-Republican Party platform)
+
==Debates==
−
#libertarians (lower taxes, less government, pro-business, anti-union)
+
The [[Commission on Presidential Debates]] is sponsoring four debates.<ref name="announce2012">[http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=2012-2 "Commission on Presidential Debates Announces Sites, Dates, and Candidate Selection Criteria for 2012 General Election"], [[Commission on Presidential Debates]].</ref> Although many candidates will appear on the ballot in some states, the Commission is limiting participation in the debates to just candidates that appear on enough states to be mathematically eligible to win the presidency. Candidates also must gain at least 15% support in five national polls as of the date of determination, to be some time after [[Labor Day]] 2012.<ref>[http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=candidate-selection-process "2012 Candidate Selection Criteria"], Commission on Presidential Debates.</ref> The debates are:
−
#religious voters (Baptists, Presbyterians, Catholics, evangelicals, Mormons)
+
−
#neoconservatives (foreign intervention, "better" government)
+
  
−
In 2008, John McCain won the nomination by capturing the support of 1 and 4 above. Ron Paul had the support of 2. Mitt Romney enjoyed support by 2 and part of 3. Mike Huckabee had support of 1 and part of 3. The division of 3 by Romney and Huckabee caused them to block each other: Huckabee blocked Romney in Iowa, and Romney returned the favor in New Hampshire. This dynamic prevented either from winning the nomination.
+
*Wednesday October 3: The first presidential debate took place at the [[University of Denver]] in [[Denver|Denver, Colorado]],<ref name="debates">{{cite web |url=http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2011/10/fall-2012-presidential-debates.php |title=Fall 2012 Presidential Debates Set |work=National Journal |first=Kathy |last=Kiely |date=October 31, 2011| accessdate=October 12, 2012}}</ref> moderated by [[Jim Lehrer]]<ref name="moderators">Blake, Aaron (August 13, 2012) [https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/presidential-debate-moderators-announced-crowley-is-first-woman-in-20-years/2012/08/13/0e327af6-e553-11e1-8f62-58260e3940a0_blog.html "Presidential debate moderators announced: Crowley is first woman in 20 years"], ''[[The Washington Post]]''. Retrieved October 12, 2012.</ref>
 +
*Thursday October 11: The vice-presidential debate took place at [[Centre College]] in [[Danville, Kentucky]],<ref name="debates" /> moderated by [[Martha Raddatz]] of [[ABC News]]<ref name="moderators"/>
 +
*Tuesday October 16: The second presidential debate (with a town-hall meeting format) took place at [[Hofstra University]] in [[Hempstead (village), New York|Hempstead, New York]].<ref name="debates" /> moderated by [[Candy Crowley]] of [[CNN]].<ref name="moderators"/><ref>Little, Morgan (July 25, 2012) [https://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-presidential-debate-formats-announced-feature-town-hall-20120725,0,7862238.story "Presidential debate formats announced, feature town hall"], ''[[Los Angeles Times]]''. Retrieved October 12, 2012.</ref>
 +
*Monday October 22: The third and final presidential debate on foreign policy took place at [[Lynn University]] in [[Boca Raton, Florida]],<ref name="debates" /> moderated by [[Bob Schieffer]] of [[CBS News]].<ref name="moderators"/>
  
−
In 2000, George Bush won with the support of 1 and 3.  But John McCain enjoyed the support from 2 and 4 and this enabled him to win the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries, giving Bush a close contest. Some felt McCain mishandled his victory in Michigan.
+
An independent presidential debate, sponsored by the [[Free and Equal Elections Foundation]] and moderated by former CNN host [[Larry King]], took place on October 23, 2012, at the Hilton Hotel in Chicago, Illinois. President Obama and Governor Romney declined invitations, while Johnson, Goode, Stein and Anderson participated.<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2012/10/24/third-party-candidates-finally-get-their-own-presidential-debate/ Third-party candidates finally get their on presidential debate] washingtonpost.com, Groer, Annie</ref> A second independent debate took place on October 30 in Washington, D.C.<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/24/another-third-party-debate-in-the-works/ Another third-party debate in the works] washingtonpost.com, Hicks, Josh</ref>
  
−
In 1980, Ronald Reagan had the support of 1 and 2.
+
== Minor parties ==
  
−
== Potential Democratic Candidates ==
+
With record-low support for either major party candidate, this could be a year when minor parties do unusually well.
  
−
McClatchy-Marist survey after the [[2010 Midterm elections]] revealed 46% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters said they don't want President Obama to face a Democratic primary challenge, with 45% saying they do want such a challenge to occur. 40% of Democrats and independents who lean towards the Democrats say they prefer a more conservative challenger, while 39% say they want a challenger who is more liberal. The Marist poll says,
 
−
{{Cquote|Interestingly, a plurality of Democrats – 42 percent – would like to see a more liberal challenger while half of Democratic leaning independents – 50 percent – would like to see a more conservative one.}}
 
−
The McClatchy-Marist poll indicates that 48 percent of registered voters nationwide plan to vote against the president in 2012, with 36 percent saying they'll vote to re-elect Obama.
 
−
 
−
A Quinnipiac University survey released after the [[2010 Midterm elections]] indicated that a plurality of Americans don't think Obama deserves to be re-elected to a second term, and an Associated Press-GfK survey in the same time span indicates that 54% believe Obama should be voted out of office in 2012.<ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/24/poll-democrats-split-on-2012-obama-primary-challenge/</ref> Former DNC chairman [[Ed Rendell]] suggested on [[MSNBC]], liberal anger over Obama's escalation of the war in Afghanistan could lead to a primary challenge.<ref>http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20011923-503544.html</ref>
 
−
 
−
The ''[[New York Times]]'' reported many [[liberal]]s are so upset over recommendations by the Deficit Reduction Commission which President Obama himself created after the Democratic controlled Congress voted the idea down,<ref>http://peoplesworld.org/senate-defeats-deficit-commission/</ref> "if Mr. Obama were to embrace its major parts, he would invite a primary challenge in 2012."<ref>http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/12/us/politics/12fiscal.html</ref> Clarence B. Jones, who was a personal advisor, legal counsel, and close friend of Dr. [[Martin Luther King, Jr.]], has called for a primary challenge to President Obama.<ref>http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/former-mlk-advisor-calls-primary-chal</ref>
 
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
{| class="wikitable"
 
|-
 
|-
 +
!Party
 
!Candidate
 
!Candidate
−
!Pros
+
!Comments
−
!Cons
+
−
![[MSNBC]] exposure
+
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Barack Obama]]
+
|[[Constitution Party]]<ref>http://constitutionparty.com/</ref>
−
|Ability to compromise and act in a spirit of bi-partisanship when his back's against the wall and career on the line; he's not Hillary Clinton, and he receives endearing support from the media.
+
|[[Virgil Goode]]<ref>http://www.goodeforpresident2012.com/index.html</ref>
−
|He depends on a teleprompter to speak, and has run the nation into the ground. Numerous broken<ref>http://politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/rulings/promise-broken/</ref> and unfulfilled<ref>http://politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/rulings/stalled/</ref> campaign promises, implementation of socialist [[Obamacare]] program. Maybe uphill without help from [[ACORN]].
+
|Popular ex-Congressman from Virginia who had previously won election as a Democrat, Independent, and Republican. Joined the Constitution Party in 2010. Opposes illegal immigration and calls for a reduction in legal immigration as well. Won the Constitution Party nomination for president in April on the first ballot.  
−
|Heavily promoted on MSNBC.
+
|-
 +
|[[Green Party]]<ref>http://www.gp.org/index.php</ref>
 +
|[[Jill Stein]]<ref>http://www.jillstein.org/</ref>
 +
|Defeated [[Roseanne Barr]] for the Green Party nomination. Criticizes Obama for allegedly perpetuating the policies of the Bush administration. Supports the Occupy Wall Street protests. Was previously the Green Party candidate in a series of elections in Massachusetts including a Gubernatorial Election against Mitt Romney (among others).
 +
|-
 +
|Justice Party<ref>http://www.justicepartyusa.org/</ref>
 +
|[[Rocky Anderson]]<ref>http://www.voterocky.org/</ref>
 +
|Former mayor of [[Salt Lake City]], [[Utah]] (2000–08)
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Hillary Clinton]]
+
||[[Libertarian Party]]<ref>http://www.lp.org/</ref>
−
|Her criticism of Obama's massive deficits hinted at a possible run against him in 2012, and [[Ted Kennedy]] cannot interfere with her nomination this time; moreover, waiting until 2016 is unattractive because she will be 71 then.  She has the highest approval ratings of any potential challenger.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/january_2010/58_view_hillary_clinton_favorably 58% View Hillary Clinton Favorably], January 19, 2010.  Retrieved February 15, 2010.</ref> Tested the waters with Bill backing a challenger to Obama's Colorado Senate candidate (who then lost), and by Hillary saying she won't serve a second term as Obama's Secretary of State.  The chances of Hillary running and winning the nomination increase with every decline in Obama's approval ratings.
+
|[[Gary Johnson]]<ref>http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/</ref>
−
|Her [[feminism]] is not wanted and she'd lose the general election as [[Martha Coakley]] did.
+
|The former [[Republican]] two-term governor of [[New Mexico]], Johnson favors the fair tax, ending American military actions overseas, legalizing marijuana, expanding legal [[immigration]] and allowing same-sex marriage. Given Ron Paul's libertarian campaign for the Republican nomination and the exclusion of Johnson from most of the debates, there was little room for Johnson as a Republican this election cycle. He won the Libertarian Party nomination on May 5, 2012.
−
|Disfavored on MSNBC.
+
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Russ Feingold]]
+
|Peace and Freedom Party<ref>http://www.peaceandfreedom.org/home/</ref>
−
|His dedication to [[progressive]] causes rivals that of Obama, Feingold now has the time to run since his defeat in the 2010 midterms.<ref>http://usforruss.com/?p=55</ref>
+
|[[Roseanne Barr]]<ref>http://www.roseanneforpresident2012.org/</ref>
−
|Considered a maverick and [[reform]]er within the Democratic party.
+
|Comedienne and former TV actress
−
|Disfavored on MSNBC.
+
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Howard Dean]]
+
|Party for Socialism and Liberation<ref>http://www.pslweb.org/</ref>
−
|Liberal media personality, politician with physicians license and a former Vermont governor. Opposed [[Obamacare]] in its current form, and declared that government cannot force people to buy health insurance.
+
|Peta Lindsay
−
|Progressive/Socialist/Marxist philosophy combined with numerous public gaffes. Dean ran in the 2004 presidential elections.
+
|Student and anti-war activist (not even constitutionally qualified to serve as president - less than 35 years of age)
−
|Heavily promoted on MSNBC.
+
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Bernie Sanders]]
+
|America's Party<ref>http://www.selfgovernment.us/</ref>
−
|Has pledged to "do whatever I can" to thwart compromise and thinks the President's legislative proposals are "an absolute disaster and an insult to the vast majority of the American people."
+
|[[Tom Hoefling]]<ref>http://www.tomhoefling.com/</ref>
−
|Genuine out-of-the-closet [[Socialist]], will need to formally register as a Democrat.
+
|
−
|Has appeared on MSNBC.<ref>http://www.thestatecolumn.com/blog/2010/12/sen-bernie-sanders-issues-a-challenge-to-president-obama/</ref>
+
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Ralph Nader]]
+
|[[Objectivist]] Party<ref>http://www.objectivistparty.us/</ref>
−
|An experienced [[community organizer]], Nader has not foreclosed the possibility of a challenge. [http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/132835--nader-i-am-looking-for-someone-to-challenge-obama-in-2012] Accuses Obama of betraying progressive liberals and being "a con man." [http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/12/09/ralph-nader-predicts-obama-will-face-democratic-primary-challeng/]
+
|Tom Stevens
−
|Could mount Third Party challenge if liberals continue to loose ground in the Democratic party.
+
|
−
|Promoted on MSNBC.
+
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Evan Bayh]]
+
|[[Socialist Workers Party]]<ref>http://www.themilitant.com/index.shtml</ref>
−
|Democratic base sees Bayh's retirement from the Senate as "a symbol of what's wrong with the party" as moderates are increasingly marginalized. <ref>[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/15/evan-bayh-for-president-s_n_463202.html?view=screen Evan Bayh For President? Senator May Be Eyeing White House Run,] Ryan Grim, ''Huffington Post'', 02-15-10.</ref>
+
|[[James Harris]]
−
|Lags behind Obama in fundraising. [http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00003762&cycle=2010]
+
|
−
|Has appeared on MSNBC.
+
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Dennis Kucinich]]
+
|Socialist Party USA<ref>http://vote-socialist.org/</ref>
−
|Outspoken critic of Obama's escalation of the War in Afghanistan, sellout of the public option and tax cuts for the rich.
+
|Stewart Alexander<ref>http://www.stewartalexandercares.com/</ref>
−
|Perennial favorite of special interests, particularly [[AFSCME]], lacks popular support and a wider appeal.
+
|
−
|Promoted on MSNBC.
+
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Alan Grayson]]
+
|American Third Position Party<ref>http://american3rdposition.com/</ref>
−
|Could do well to rally the progressive base in the anti-war early primary and caucus states of Iowa and New Hampshire.<ref>[http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/12/28/an-anti-war-challenge-to-obama-in-2012-the-case-for-alan-grayso/ "An Anti-War Challenge to Obama in 2012: The Case for Alan Grayson"], ''Politics Daily'', 12-28-2010.</ref>
+
|Merlin Miller<ref>http://merlinmiller2012.com/</ref>
−
|Ethical concerns over his 2010 failed reelection bid for the House.
+
|White Nationalist Party
−
|Heavily favored on MSNBC.
+
|-
 +
|Grass Roots Party<ref>http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/07/07/grassroots-party-nominates-a-presidential-ticket/</ref>
 +
|Jim Carlson
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|Freedom Socialist Party<ref name="socialism.com">http://www.socialism.com/drupal-6.8/</ref>
 +
|Stephen Durham
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|[[Prohibition Party]]<ref name="socialism.com"/>
 +
|[[Jack Fellure]]
 +
|
 +
|-
 +
|Socialist Equality Party<ref>http://www.socialequality.com/</ref>
 +
|Jerry White
 +
|
 
|-
 
|-
−
|[[Mike Gravel]]
 
−
|Former Alaska Senator who attacks his own party.
 
−
|Controversial liberal that supports socialist healthcare, gay marriage and called the war in Iraq lost. <ref>[http://dailycaller.com/2010/12/09/gravel-considering-obama-primary-challenge-calls-for-new-911-investigation/ Gravel considering Obama primary challenge, calls for new 9/11 investigation, The Daily Caller, December 9, 2010]</ref>
 
−
|Has appeared on MSNBC.
 
 
|}
 
|}
−
 
−
== Independent Candidacy by Mike Bloomberg ==
 
−
 
−
The man who spent $185 per vote to garner 51% of the vote to remain as Mayor of [[New York City]] in 2009, [[Mike Bloomberg]], is increasingly looking like an independent, self-funded candidate for president in 2012.
 
−
 
−
$185 per vote times 50 million voters equals $9.25 billion, which he can easily afford as one of the richest men in the world!  The catch is that 50 million Americans are not as likely to be persuaded by self-funded campaign ads as 51% of New Yorkers were.  The more likely result is the he would split the [[pro-abortion]], pro-[[homosexual agenda]] vote with the [[Democratic]] nominee.
 
  
 
==References==
 
==References==
Line 286: Line 172:
 
== See also ==
 
== See also ==
  
−
*[[Gubernatorial elections, 2010]]
+
*[[Endorsements 2012]]
 +
*[[Swing States 2012]]
 +
*[[Presidential Election 2012 (disambiguation)]], for other presidential elections
 +
*[[Senate Elections 2012]]
 +
*[[Republican governors]]
 +
*[[Gingrich's campaign mistakes 2012]]
 +
*[[Frank White, Jr.]]
  
  
−
[[Category: United States]]
+
{{DEFAULTSORT:2012, United States presidential election,}}
−
[[Category: United States Presidential Elections]]
+
[[Category:United States Presidential Elections]]
−
[[Category: United States Presidential Election, 2012]]
+
[[Category:United States Presidential Election, 2012]]

Latest revision as of 03:59, May 14, 2019

The Presidential Election 2012 was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. By relying on extensive early voting driven by the Democrat political machine—which totaled more than 40% of the vote -- Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney despite losing nearly 10 million votes from 2008, carrying fewer states and a smaller proportion of both the electoral vote and the popular vote than he had before. Thus, Obama's "victory" was smaller in magnitude by four different measures than in 2008.

Obama was leading in the polls by a substantial margin until the first presidential debate, which Romney won by the widest margin ever recorded by Gallup polling. Afterward Romney surpassed Obama and was leading by 49-48% in both the Rasmussen and Gallup polls on Election Day.

As Conservapedia anticipated, this election was similar to the election of 1948, when the RINO Thomas Dewey was unable to attract grassroots voters despite the unpopularity of Harry Truman and the deteriorating economy. A handful of swing states selected the winner in both instances.

Issue or Factor Mitt Romney Barack Obama Comment
Social issues Romney has downplayed social issues, but supports defunding Planned Parenthood and would likely nominate more conservative judges. Obama is vocally pro-abortion, pro-same-sex marriage, and pro-homosexual agenda. As with Tom Dewey's loss in 1948, Romney's running away from social issues could cost him the election.
Economic issues Romney favors free enterprise, low taxes, and personal responsibility. Obama says he inherited the crisis from Republicans. The advantage here is Romney's.
Leadership Romney was head of Bain Capital, was Governor of Massachusetts and led the 2002 Olympics. Obama took advantage of Hurricane Sandy to create an impression that he was a competent leader, but, a week after the storm, its effects are still being felt. Both candidates have proven leadership skills, but Obama's response to Hurricane Sandy is being celebrated by the liberal press.
Likability Romney's likability rating stands at only 31%, and has been lower. Obama's likability rating is at 48%. Advantage to Obama.
Debates Romney is a good debater. Obama struggles without a teleprompter, but will benefit from liberal moderators. Advantage to Romney.
VPs Paul Ryan has youth, energy, and likability, but is part of the Big Government Republican leadership in Congress, which has an ultra-low approval rating; Romney has been criticized for not using Ryan more effectively in the campaign.[1] Joe Biden is a gaffe-prone goofball, but is protected by the liberal media. Toss-up here, or maybe a slight edge to Ryan.
Fundraising Mitt did not turn out to be as strong a fundraiser as expected, nor were the Super PACs effective on his side; some of their comments to the press, like Karl Rove criticizing Todd Akin, were actually hurtful. Limousine liberals have donated millions to Obama's reelection, and once again the Dems outspend the Republicans. Advantage to Obama.
Gaffes/staying on message 47% of American don't pay income tax and won't vote for me[2][3]/London Olympics not ready comment[4] "You didn't build that" Obama has a media covering up his gaffes any way they can, but Romney has better control of his message. Advantage to Romney.

Following the 2012 Republican Primaries the Republican National Convention nominated the RINO Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, and their strategy appears to be to duck and avoid social issues as much as possible. The selection and Paul Ryan as VP and polling during the first half of the convention showed only a slight bounce in voter support for Romney.

History

No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is at 7.9% (and real unemployment much higher).[5]

Campaign strategy

Both campaigns have focused on key battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia.[6] A CNN summary of poll of likely voters taken just before the first debate had Obama leading Romney in Florida, 47% to 46%, in Virginia 48% to 46% and in Ohio 52% to 43%.[6]

Romney made a last-minute effort in Pennsylvania, including both ads and personal appearances, but Obama ultimately won Pennsylvania's electoral votes. The October 25 Rasmussen poll in Pennsylania had the state 51% for Obama and 46% for Romney, but the last minute effort did not move enough voters to change the outcome.[7]

Fundraising

The Associated Press reports that the following people are the top donors to Mitt Romney's campaign and his "Restore Our Future" SuperPAC:[8]

Donor Amount
Sheldon Adelson, 79, owner of the Las Vegas Sands casino empire. $34.2 million
Harold Simmons, 81, owner of Contran Corp. $16 million
Bob J. Perry, 80, a Houston real estate investor $15.3 million
Robert Rowling, 58, head of Dallas-based TRT Holdings $4.1 million
William Koch, 72, an industrialist whose family owns an energy and mining conglomerate $3 million

Debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates is sponsoring four debates.[9] Although many candidates will appear on the ballot in some states, the Commission is limiting participation in the debates to just candidates that appear on enough states to be mathematically eligible to win the presidency. Candidates also must gain at least 15% support in five national polls as of the date of determination, to be some time after Labor Day 2012.[10] The debates are:

An independent presidential debate, sponsored by the Free and Equal Elections Foundation and moderated by former CNN host Larry King, took place on October 23, 2012, at the Hilton Hotel in Chicago, Illinois. President Obama and Governor Romney declined invitations, while Johnson, Goode, Stein and Anderson participated.[14] A second independent debate took place on October 30 in Washington, D.C.[15]

Minor parties

With record-low support for either major party candidate, this could be a year when minor parties do unusually well.

Party Candidate Comments
Constitution Party[16] Virgil Goode[17] Popular ex-Congressman from Virginia who had previously won election as a Democrat, Independent, and Republican. Joined the Constitution Party in 2010. Opposes illegal immigration and calls for a reduction in legal immigration as well. Won the Constitution Party nomination for president in April on the first ballot.
Green Party[18] Jill Stein[19] Defeated Roseanne Barr for the Green Party nomination. Criticizes Obama for allegedly perpetuating the policies of the Bush administration. Supports the Occupy Wall Street protests. Was previously the Green Party candidate in a series of elections in Massachusetts including a Gubernatorial Election against Mitt Romney (among others).
Justice Party[20] Rocky Anderson[21] Former mayor of Salt Lake City, Utah (2000–08)
Libertarian Party[22] Gary Johnson[23] The former Republican two-term governor of New Mexico, Johnson favors the fair tax, ending American military actions overseas, legalizing marijuana, expanding legal immigration and allowing same-sex marriage. Given Ron Paul's libertarian campaign for the Republican nomination and the exclusion of Johnson from most of the debates, there was little room for Johnson as a Republican this election cycle. He won the Libertarian Party nomination on May 5, 2012.
Peace and Freedom Party[24] Roseanne Barr[25] Comedienne and former TV actress
Party for Socialism and Liberation[26] Peta Lindsay Student and anti-war activist (not even constitutionally qualified to serve as president - less than 35 years of age)
America's Party[27] Tom Hoefling[28]
Objectivist Party[29] Tom Stevens
Socialist Workers Party[30] James Harris
Socialist Party USA[31] Stewart Alexander[32]
American Third Position Party[33] Merlin Miller[34] White Nationalist Party
Grass Roots Party[35] Jim Carlson
Freedom Socialist Party[36] Stephen Durham
Prohibition Party[36] Jack Fellure
Socialist Equality Party[37] Jerry White

References

  1. ↑ Felicia Sonmez and David Fahrenthold. "In GOP recipe, too little Ryan for conservatives' taste", Washington Post, September 25, 2012, p. A1. 
  2. ↑ "Are Romney's '47 percent' comments beginning to move the polls?", Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved on September 25, 2012. 
  3. ↑ Linda Feldmann. "Mitt Romney gaffes: 11 times the button-down candidate should have buttoned up", Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved on September 25, 2012. 
  4. ↑ Jim Acosta. "Romney trip begins in shambles", CNN, July 27, 2012. Retrieved on September 25, 2012. 
  5. ↑ The economy grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President George H.W. Bush’s one term in office" - who then lost reelection. [1] The September 7 labor report observed, "Just 63.5% of the working-age population was either employed or actively looking for work -- a 30-year low." [2]
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 Steinhauser, Paul. "New polls in crucial battlegrounds", October 3, 2012. Retrieved on October 4, 2012. 
  7. ↑ Election 2012: Pennsylvania President. Retrieved on November 8, 2012.
  8. ↑ "Money men: Who are the biggest donors to Mitt Romney's presidential campaign?", New York Daily News, October 19, 2012. Retrieved on November 6, 2012. 
  9. ↑ "Commission on Presidential Debates Announces Sites, Dates, and Candidate Selection Criteria for 2012 General Election", Commission on Presidential Debates.
  10. ↑ "2012 Candidate Selection Criteria", Commission on Presidential Debates.
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 Kiely, Kathy (October 31, 2011). Fall 2012 Presidential Debates Set. National Journal. Retrieved on October 12, 2012.
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 Blake, Aaron (August 13, 2012) "Presidential debate moderators announced: Crowley is first woman in 20 years", The Washington Post. Retrieved October 12, 2012.
  13. ↑ Little, Morgan (July 25, 2012) "Presidential debate formats announced, feature town hall", Los Angeles Times. Retrieved October 12, 2012.
  14. ↑ Third-party candidates finally get their on presidential debate washingtonpost.com, Groer, Annie
  15. ↑ Another third-party debate in the works washingtonpost.com, Hicks, Josh
  16. ↑ http://constitutionparty.com/
  17. ↑ http://www.goodeforpresident2012.com/index.html
  18. ↑ http://www.gp.org/index.php
  19. ↑ http://www.jillstein.org/
  20. ↑ http://www.justicepartyusa.org/
  21. ↑ http://www.voterocky.org/
  22. ↑ http://www.lp.org/
  23. ↑ http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/
  24. ↑ http://www.peaceandfreedom.org/home/
  25. ↑ http://www.roseanneforpresident2012.org/
  26. ↑ http://www.pslweb.org/
  27. ↑ http://www.selfgovernment.us/
  28. ↑ http://www.tomhoefling.com/
  29. ↑ http://www.objectivistparty.us/
  30. ↑ http://www.themilitant.com/index.shtml
  31. ↑ http://vote-socialist.org/
  32. ↑ http://www.stewartalexandercares.com/
  33. ↑ http://american3rdposition.com/
  34. ↑ http://merlinmiller2012.com/
  35. ↑ http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/07/07/grassroots-party-nominates-a-presidential-ticket/
  36. ↑ 36.0 36.1 http://www.socialism.com/drupal-6.8/
  37. ↑ http://www.socialequality.com/

See also

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