Difference between revisions of "Senate Elections 2012"
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'''* Missouri''' | '''* Missouri''' | ||
| − | Democrat [[Claire McCaskill]] is the incumbent and faces [[movement conservative]] [[Todd Akin]], the [[Republican]] nominee. Since Akin's comments regarding pregnancy and "legitimate rape," Akin | + | Democrat [[Claire McCaskill]] is the incumbent and faces [[movement conservative]] [[Todd Akin]], the [[Republican]] nominee. Since Akin's comments regarding pregnancy and "legitimate rape," Akin went from leading McCaskill by 6 points in prior polls to trailing her by 10 points in a Rasmussen Poll from August 22. However, the gap has lessened for Akin, and he trails by 6 points in the September 12th poll.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/missouri/election_2012_missouri_senate Election 2012: Missouri Senate] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012</ref> |
'''* Massachusetts''' | '''* Massachusetts''' | ||
Revision as of 21:47, September 21, 2012
2012 United States Senate elections to be held November 6, 2012 includes Republican, Democrat and Independent candidates vying for six-year terms and a seat in the 113th Congress. Democrats need to defend 21 seats and Republicans need only to defend 10 seats. Two seats held by Independents are up for election and lean Democrat: Bernie Sanders seeks re-election and Joe Lieberman is retiring.
Democrats' majority status and Harry Reid's Senate leadership are at stake. Some Democrats are growing uncomfortable as they decline to endorse Obama's shift on gay marriage. Of the 33 Democrats who have won their primaries, only 20 have clearly stated their support for gay marriage while 8 have stated their opposition. "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid predicted Thursday the Democratic Party would adopt a pro-gay marriage plank in its platform." [1]
As of September 20, the RealClearPolitics website forecasts a 48-44 split favoring democrats with 8 toss-up seats, but that includes a questionable claim that Democrats will likely hold on to the New Mexico seat. In these key states, most of which are listed as "toss-up" or even leaning Democrat, the Democrat candidate will probably not win unless he garners more votes than Obama in the state:
- Connecticut
- Indiana
- Massachusetts
- Montana (Rehberg-R v. Tester-D)
- Nevada
- North Dakota
- Virginia
- Wisconsin
Contents
Senate Contests
Ratings originally based on RealClearPolitics website forecast; forecasts revised here on September 9, 2012.
Safe Republican
* Mississippi
Republican Roger Wicker is the incumbent. He will face Democrat Albert N. Gore.
* Tennessee
Republican Bob Corker is the incumbent. He will face conservative Democrat Mark Clayton. Clayton will not have any help from his party.
* Texas
Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison is retiring. Tea party backed Ted Cruz will face Paul Sadler, who won his primary runoff for the Democrat nomination. Sadler is a backer of Obamacare and Planned Parenthood.
* Utah
Republican Orrin Hatch is the incumbent. Pete Ashdown is the Democrat challenger.
* Wyoming
Republican John Barrasso is the incumbent. He will face Democrat Tim Chestnut.
Likely Republican
* Nebraska
Democrat Ben Nelson is retiring. Pro-life Deb Fischer defeated RINO Jon Bruning for the Republican nomination; and will face Democrat Bob Kerrey.
Leans Republican
* Arizona
Republican Jon Kyl is retiring. Democrat Richard Carmona will face Republican Jeff Flake. Flake is endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund.
* Indiana
Tea Party-backed Republican Richard Mourdock will face Democrat Joe Donnelly after defeating 35-year incumbent Republican Richard Lugar.
* Nevada
Republican Dean Heller was appointed in 2011 to replace John Ensign and is considered the incumbent. He faces Rep. Shelley Berkley who cruised to victory in the Democratic primary. Polling has Heller with a lead of, on average, 4 points though he generally fails to break 50%, a crucial benchmark for an incumbent.
* Wisconsin
Democrat Herb Kohl is retiring. Democrat Tammy Baldwin will face Republican Tommy Thompson.
Toss Up
* Florida
Democrat Bill Nelson is the incumbent. He will face Republican Representative Connie Mack. Polls show Nelson below the 50 percent mark, which is bad news for an incumbent and Nelson cannot win if Romney takes Florida, a must-win state for him. As of September 2012, Nelson leads Mack by about 8 percentage points, depending on the poll.[1]
* Missouri
Democrat Claire McCaskill is the incumbent and faces movement conservative Todd Akin, the Republican nominee. Since Akin's comments regarding pregnancy and "legitimate rape," Akin went from leading McCaskill by 6 points in prior polls to trailing her by 10 points in a Rasmussen Poll from August 22. However, the gap has lessened for Akin, and he trails by 6 points in the September 12th poll.[2]
* Massachusetts
Republican Scott Brown is the incumbent, and will face Democrat Elizabeth Warren. Polling has this race in a tie.
* Michigan
Democrat Debbie Stabenow is the incumbent and will face Republican Pete Hoekstra.
* Montana
Democrat Jon Tester is the incumbent. He will face Republican Denny Rehberg. June 2012 polling has Rehberg holding a 2-point lead.
* North Dakota
Democrat Kent Conrad is retiring. July polling has Republican Rick Berg leading Democrat Heidi Heitkamp by +5.
* Ohio
Democrat Sherrod Brown is the incumbent. He will face Republican Josh Mandel. Mandel has the backing of Senator Jim Demint. Brown has the backing of George Soros, the SEIU and the former ACORN.
* Virginia
Democrat Jim Webb is retiring. Democrat Tim Kaine will face Republican George Allen. Polling has this race tied and may come down to which presidential candidate carries Virginia in November.
Leans Democrat
* Connecticut
Independent Joe Lieberman is retiring. Democrat Chris Murphy will face Republican challenger Linda McMahon.
* Hawaii
Democrat Daniel Akaka is retiring. Democrat Mazie Hirono will face former Republican Governor Linda Lingle.
* New Mexico
Democrat Jeff Bingaman is retiring. Republican Heather Wilson will face Democrat Martin Heinrich.
Likely Democrat
* New Jersey
Democrat Bob Menendez is the incumbent. He will face Republican Joe Kyrillos .
* Pennsylvania
Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. is the incumbent. 7 Republicans declared. Fake Pro-life Casey Jr. is a strong defender of Obama and Harry Reid.
* Washington
Democrat Maria Cantwell is the incumbent. Michael Baumgartner is the Republican challenger.
* West Virginia
Democrat Joe Manchin is the incumbent. He will face Republican John Raese. Barack Obama polls so poorly in this state that Manchin refuses to say who he'll vote for President. [2]
Safe Democrat
* California
Democrat Dianne Feinstein is the incumbent. She will face Republican Elizabeth Emken
* Delaware
Democrat Tom Carper is the incumbent. Businessman Kevin Wade is the Republican candidate.
* Maryland
Democrat Ben Cardin is the incumbent. He will face former Secret Service agent and Republican Dan Bongino.
* Minnesota
Democrat Amy Klobuchar is the incumbent. She will face Republican Kurt Bills.
* New York
Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand is the incumbent. She will face Republican Wendy Long.
* Rhode Island
Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse is the incumbent. Republican Barry Hinckley the challenger.
* Vermont
Independent Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats is the incumbent. John MacGovern [R] is the Republican challenger.
Likely Independent
* Maine
Republican Olympia Snowe is retiring. Democrat Cynthia Dill and Republican Charlie Summers will face Independent former Gov. Angus King. Polling predicts King will be the victor. King's positions are viewed as generally liberal leaning, and he is being treated as the de facto Democrat by the Republican campaign. It is unclear with which party he would caucus, however.
States without a Senate race in 2012
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Vermont.
See also
References
- ↑ Florida Senate - Mack vs. Nelson realclearpolitics.com, retrieved September 14, 2012
- ↑ Election 2012: Missouri Senate rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012
