Political logic

Political logic is a style of reasoning that recognizes the political pressures that are likely to cause a particular outcome. Political logic can be useful in analyzing opportunities, the stock market, court trials and sentencing, religious movements, sports, and even personal decision-making.

Political logic can be confirmed by other forms of reasoning or logic, but often political logic can arrive more quickly at an accurate prediction.

race versus gender

Race is a more powerful political issue than gender is. When they come into conflict in court or politics, the racial undercurrents typically prevail.

Examples may include the outcome of the O.J. Simpson trial, the first Bill Cosby trial (hung jury) and the reversal on appeal of the second trial conviction, and Bill Clinton's overcoming his sex scandals.

Stock market

It is difficult to explain, based purely on financial analysis, the meteoric rise in value of Tesla stock. But it is easy to explain based on political logic: political winds are blowing strongly towards banning fossil fuels, and California even prohibited the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles starting in 2035.

Sports predictions

By any objective analysis, Tim Tebow should have had a career in the NFL. But political logic explains the exclusion of the Bible-quoting Tebow from the demonic league. The announcement of his possible signing by an NFL team to a contract in 2021 was met by bizarre harsh criticism for merely giving him a chance.

Sports logic and fan support indicate that Tim Tebow should play this upcoming season. But political logic indicates that he will not be given a fair chance.

Chauvin trial

Minnesota sentencing guidelines suggest a prison sentence of 10 years for Derek Chauvin, which was also the sentence received by the police office in Houston who mistakenly thought there was an intruder in her apartment (in fact, she was mistakenly in the wrong apartment).

An unprecedented upward departure of more than an additional 10 years, for a total of 22 years and six months, was imposed as the sentence against Chauvin.

Cited in court cases

The phrase "political logic" has been used a handful of times in court cases, most notably in a dissent by Judge Wisdom (a dissent later adopted by the U.S. Supreme Court) in which he wrote:

“

'The political logic of federalism supports placing the burden of persuasion on those urging national action.'

”

McKenna v. Wallis, 344 F.2d 432, 445 (5th Cir. 1964) (Wisdom, J., dissenting, quoting Wechsler, The Political Safeguards of Federalism: The Role of the States in the Composition and Selection of the National Government, 54 Colum.L.Rev. 543, 545 (1954)).