https://www.conservapedia.com/api.php?action=feedcontributions&feedformat=atom&user=Ferret 2026-11-09T05:46:21Z User contributions MediaWiki 1.35.14 https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1283744 2016-10-15T22:45:14Z

<p>Ferret: GOP at its lowest probability of the campaign</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> !14 May 2016<br /> !21 May 2016<br /> !28 May 2016<br /> !11 June 2016<br /> !22 June 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 25.1%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 30.5%<br /> | 26.0%<br /> | 20.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''25.1%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''30.5%'''<br /> | '''26.0%'''<br /> |'''22.5%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> | 67.9%<br /> | 64.9%<br /> | 63.2%<br /> | 68.3%<br /> |72.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> |4.0%<br /> |3.5%<br /> |2.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> |2.2%<br /> |2.3%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''74.9%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''69.5%'''<br /> |'''74.0%'''<br /> |'''77.5%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 1 August'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 7 August 2016<br /> !20 August 2016<br /> !11 October 2016<br /> !16 October 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 25.4%<br /> | 20.0%<br /> | 17.8%<br /> | 17.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mike Pence<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''25.4%'''<br /> | '''20.0%'''<br /> | '''21.0%'''<br /> | '''18.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 74.6%<br /> | 80.0%<br /> | 79.0%<br /> | 81.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> |'''74.6%'''<br /> |'''80.0%'''<br /> | '''79.0%'''<br /> | '''81.1%'''<br /> |-<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1282830 2016-10-11T10:31:02Z

<p>Ferret: Party odds similar to 20 August, but Pence and Ryan now seen as GOP possibilities</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> !14 May 2016<br /> !21 May 2016<br /> !28 May 2016<br /> !11 June 2016<br /> !22 June 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 25.1%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 30.5%<br /> | 26.0%<br /> | 20.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''25.1%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''30.5%'''<br /> | '''26.0%'''<br /> |'''22.5%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> | 67.9%<br /> | 64.9%<br /> | 63.2%<br /> | 68.3%<br /> |72.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> |4.0%<br /> |3.5%<br /> |2.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> |2.2%<br /> |2.3%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''74.9%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''69.5%'''<br /> |'''74.0%'''<br /> |'''77.5%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 1 August'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 7 August 2016<br /> !20 August 2016<br /> !11 October 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 25.4%<br /> | 20.0%<br /> | 17.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Mike Pence<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''25.4%'''<br /> | '''20.0%'''<br /> | '''21.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 74.6%<br /> | 80.0%<br /> | 79.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> |'''74.6%'''<br /> |'''80.0%'''<br /> | '''79.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1271675 2016-08-20T05:51:59Z

<p>Ferret: Probability of Clinton winning presidency reaches 80%</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> !14 May 2016<br /> !21 May 2016<br /> !28 May 2016<br /> !11 June 2016<br /> !22 June 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 25.1%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 30.5%<br /> | 26.0%<br /> | 20.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''25.1%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''30.5%'''<br /> | '''26.0%'''<br /> |'''22.5%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> | 67.9%<br /> | 64.9%<br /> | 63.2%<br /> | 68.3%<br /> |72.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> |4.0%<br /> |3.5%<br /> |2.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> |2.2%<br /> |2.3%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''74.9%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''69.5%'''<br /> |'''74.0%'''<br /> |'''77.5%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 1 August'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 7 August 2016<br /> !20 August 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 25.4%<br /> | 20.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 74.6%<br /> | 80.0%<br /> |-<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1268784 2016-08-07T04:51:43Z

<p>Ferret: It's been a while, sorry - Trump close to where he started in March</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> !14 May 2016<br /> !21 May 2016<br /> !28 May 2016<br /> !11 June 2016<br /> !22 June 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 25.1%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 30.5%<br /> | 26.0%<br /> | 20.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''25.1%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''30.5%'''<br /> | '''26.0%'''<br /> |'''22.5%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> | 67.9%<br /> | 64.9%<br /> | 63.2%<br /> | 68.3%<br /> |72.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> |4.0%<br /> |3.5%<br /> |2.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> |2.2%<br /> |2.3%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''74.9%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''69.5%'''<br /> |'''74.0%'''<br /> |'''77.5%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 1 August'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 7 August 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 25.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 74.6%<br /> |-<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1229347 2016-06-23T10:53:14Z

<p>Ferret: Trump loses ground, Ryan back in the frame (albeit in a small way)</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> !14 May 2016<br /> !21 May 2016<br /> !28 May 2016<br /> !11 June 2016<br /> !22 June 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 25.1%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 30.5%<br /> | 26.0%<br /> | 20.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''25.1%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''30.5%'''<br /> | '''26.0%'''<br /> |'''22.5%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> | 67.9%<br /> | 64.9%<br /> | 63.2%<br /> | 68.3%<br /> |72.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> |4.0%<br /> |3.5%<br /> |2.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> |2.2%<br /> |2.3%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''74.9%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''69.5%'''<br /> |'''74.0%'''<br /> |'''77.5%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1226104 2016-06-11T22:07:52Z

<p>Ferret: Clinton makes ground</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> !14 May 2016<br /> !21 May 2016<br /> !28 May 2016<br /> !11 June 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 25.1%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 30.5%<br /> | 26.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''25.1%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''30.5%'''<br /> | '''26.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> | 67.9%<br /> | 64.9%<br /> | 63.2%<br /> | 68.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> |4.0%<br /> |3.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> |2.2%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''74.9%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''69.5%'''<br /> |'''74.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1220968 2016-05-28T03:59:07Z

<p>Ferret: Trump makes ground - now at highest ever probability</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> !14 May 2016<br /> !21 May 2016<br /> !28 May 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 25.1%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 30.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''25.1%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''30.5%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> | 67.9%<br /> | 64.9%<br /> | 63.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> |4.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''74.9%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''69.5%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1219021 2016-05-21T06:12:31Z

<p>Ferret: Trump makes ground</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> !14 May 2016<br /> !21 May 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 25.1%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''25.1%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> | 67.9%<br /> | 64.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''74.9%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1217908 2016-05-14T09:22:18Z

<p>Ferret: Alternative Dem candidates still in the frame</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> !14 May 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 25.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> | '''25.1%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> | 67.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 5.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> | '''74.9%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1216322 2016-05-07T04:54:39Z

<p>Ferret: Trump last Republican standing, GOP closes gap slightly on Dems</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> ! 7 May 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> | '''27.2%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> | 69.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> | '''72.8%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1215426 2016-05-04T09:26:00Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> <br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1214050 2016-04-28T12:23:19Z

<p>Ferret: Field thins - Trump and Clinton in control</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probabilities from 5 March'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probabilities from 28 April'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 28 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 21.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 3.9%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''26.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 68.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''73.3%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1209785 2016-04-14T12:42:48Z

<p>Ferret: Trump and Cruz firm for GOP, Sanders wanes</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> ! 14 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> | 14.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> | 9.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''29.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1207751 2016-04-07T11:16:05Z

<p>Ferret: Sanders closes gap on Clinton, overtakes Trump for second place</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> ! 7 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> | 12.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> | 7.4%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 5.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> | 54.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> | 13.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1207613 2016-04-06T05:33:35Z

<p>Ferret: Sanders &amp; Cruz eat into Clinton, close in on Trump</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> ! 6 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> | 12.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 7.7%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> | '''28.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> | 56.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> | 12.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> | '''71.3%'''<br /> <br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1207346 2016-04-05T09:24:57Z

<p>Ferret: Cruz and Sanders make ground on Trump and Clinton</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> ! 5 April 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> | 13.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> | '''28.3%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> | 59.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> | 10.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> | '''71.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1206223 2016-04-01T02:11:57Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> ! 31 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 14.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 5.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> | '''28.8%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> | 60.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> | 8.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> | '''71.2%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1204921 2016-03-27T20:59:22Z

<p>Ferret: Movements after Saturday - Kasich, Clinton down, Sanders up</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> ! 27 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> | '''29.6%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> | 60.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 8.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> | '''70.4%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/BrexitOdds&diff=1204542 2016-03-25T06:25:11Z

<p>Ferret: Leave gained 1%</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability of result of the UK referendum on EU status<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Result<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Stay<br /> | 67.1%<br /> | 66.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Leave<br /> | 32.9%<br /> | 33.9%</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1204541 2016-03-25T06:21:00Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.7%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1204540 2016-03-25T06:16:24Z

<p>Ferret: Paul Ryan on the radar, but otherwise not much change</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> ! 25 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 21.4%<br /> | <br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Paul Ryan<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 61.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.1%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret&diff=1202707 2016-03-16T07:46:37Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>[[User:Ferret/ElectionOdds | 2008 Election Odds]]<br /> <br /> <br /> [[User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds | 2012 Election Odds]]<br /> <br /> <br /> [[User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds | 2016 Election Odds]]<br /> <br /> <br /> [[User:Ferret/BrexitOdds | 2016 UK's EU referendum result odds]]</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/BrexitOdds&diff=1202706 2016-03-16T07:44:02Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability of result of the UK referendum on EU status<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Result<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Stay<br /> | 67.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Leave<br /> | 32.9%</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/BrexitOdds&diff=1202705 2016-03-16T07:43:19Z

<p>Ferret: Created page with &quot;'''Result of the UK referendum on EU status {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot; |- ! Result ! 16 March 2016 |- | Stay | 67.1% |- | Leave | 32.9%&quot;</p> <hr /> <div>'''Result of the UK referendum on EU status<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Result<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Stay<br /> | 67.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Leave<br /> | 32.9%</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1202704 2016-03-16T07:30:05Z

<p>Ferret: Update after ST2 - Kasich and Clinton make ground</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> ! 16 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 7.2%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> | '''31.8%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> | 5.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> | '''68.2%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''0.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1202474 2016-03-13T06:29:06Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> ! 13 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1202473 2016-03-13T06:28:29Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> | 13 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1202472 2016-03-13T06:16:57Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> | 20.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> | 4.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> | '''32.1%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> | 57.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> | 7.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.2%'''<br /> | '''65.8%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1201735 2016-03-07T11:38:52Z

<p>Ferret: Update after the weekend</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> ! 7 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> | 21.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> | 6.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 4.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> | '''34.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> | 56.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> | 5.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> | '''63.3%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> | '''2.0%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret&diff=1201388 2016-03-05T10:46:01Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>[[User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds | 2016 Election Odds]]</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User_talk:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1201387 2016-03-05T10:44:40Z

<p>Ferret: Created page with &quot;Any queries about how these numbers are derived, let me know&quot;</p> <hr /> <div>Any queries about how these numbers are derived, let me know</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1201369 2016-03-05T06:43:24Z

<p>Ferret: Getting ahead of myself</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 5 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1201365 2016-03-05T04:19:44Z

<p>Ferret: Copy Paste error!</p> <hr /> <div>{| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 6 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2016ElectionOdds&diff=1201364 2016-03-05T04:19:11Z

<p>Ferret: Page created</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 6 March 2016<br /> |-<br /> | Donald Trump<br /> | 26.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Marco Rubio<br /> | 5.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Ted Cruz<br /> | 2.5%<br /> |-<br /> | John Kasich<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''35.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 57.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Bernie Sanders<br /> | 3.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''62.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Michael Bloomberg<br /> | 2.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | '''2.1%'''<br /> |}</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User_talk:Ferret&diff=1117645 2014-11-14T11:16:00Z

<p>Ferret: Created page with &quot;Not sure why this was deleted either.&quot;</p> <hr /> <div>Not sure why this was deleted either.</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret&diff=1117644 2014-11-14T11:15:28Z

<p>Ferret: Recreating my deleted user page.</p> <hr /> <div>Not sure why I was deleted...</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=Kevin_Rudd&diff=1117643 2014-11-14T11:14:02Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>{{PM<br /> |name=Kevin Michael Rudd<br /> |wife=<br /> |party=Australian Labor Party<br /> |dob=<br /> |yob=<br /> |birthplace=<br /> |succ={{Succession<br /> |hdg=Prime Minister<br /> |start-date=3 December<br /> |start-year=2007<br /> |end-date=24 June<br /> |end-year=2010<br /> |prev=John Howard<br /> |next=Julia Gillard<br /> }}{{Succession<br /> |hdg=Prime Minister Again<br /> |start-date=27 June<br /> |start-year=2013<br /> |prev=Julia Gillard<br /> }}{{Succession<br /> |hdg=Labor Party leader<br /> |start-date=4 December<br /> |start-year=2006<br /> |end-date=24 June<br /> |end-year=2010<br /> |prev=Kim Beazley<br /> |next=Julia Gillard<br /> }}{{Succession<br /> |hdg=Labor Party Leader<br /> |start-date=27 June<br /> |start-year=2013<br /> |prev=Julia Gillard<br /> }}<br /> }}<br /> '''Kevin Rudd''' was the 26th and 28th [[Prime Minister]] of [[Australia]] and leader of the federal [[Parliament of Australia|parliamentary]] wing of the [[Australian Labor Party]] (ALP) between December 2007 and June 2010, and June to September 2013, and Minister for Foreign Affairs from 14 September 2010 to 22 February 2012. At the federal level, the ALP won the 24 November 2007 election after 11 years of [[John Howard]]'s [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]-[[National Party of Australia|National]] coalition government. Kevin Rudd advocates socialistic policies, such as a multi-billion dollar stimulus package that gave cash handouts to any citizen earning less than $100,000 a year&lt;ref name=&quot;stimulus&quot;&gt;[http://www.treasurer.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=factsheets/2009/001.htm&amp;pageID=011&amp;min=wms&amp;Year=... Household Stimulus Package Factsheet], accessed 8 November 2009.&lt;/ref&gt; and a carbon emissions trading scheme which the government has so far been unable to pass.&lt;ref name=&quot;emissions&quot;&gt;[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/kevin-rudd-urges-liberals-to-back-emissions-trading-scheme/story-e6frg6nf-1225793355127 Kevin Rudd urges Liberals to back emissions trading scheme], The Australian, 2 November 2009, accessed 8 November 2009.&lt;/ref&gt; Despite this, Australia was one of few Western nations to not record two consecutive quarters of negative growth during the [[recession of 2008]].<br /> <br /> ==Public Service and Political career==<br /> From 1981-1988 Rudd served in the Department of Foreign Affairs, mostly posted overseas at the Australian embassies in [[Stockholm]], [[Sweden]] and later in [[Beijing]], [[China]].<br /> <br /> In 1988, he was appointed Chief of Staff to the Labor Opposition Leader in [[Queensland]], Wayne Goss. When the Labor Party won office in 1989, he became Chief of Staff to the Premier. In 1992, Goss appointed him Director-General of the Office of Cabinet. When the Goss government lost office in 1995, Rudd became a Senior China Consultant in the accounting firm KPMG Australia. He continued in this role while unsuccessfully contesting for election to the federal electorate of Griffith at the 1996 federal election, which he also contested at the 1998 election and won. Rudd served as Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs (2001-2005).<br /> <br /> In December 2006, Rudd became Leader of the Opposition after deposing the previous leader of the ALP, [[Kim Beazley]], in a leadership ballot. Since that time, he has enjoyed unprecedented public popularity having campaigned successfully on issues such as the environment and climate change, education and industrial relations policy.<br /> <br /> During the 2007 election campaign, Rudd was accused of copying some of his policies (in particular economic policies) from his more conservative predecessor, John Howard, in a bid to win office, believing that the electorate found those policies appealing. <br /> <br /> The ALP won the election on 24 November 2007, and Rudd was soon affirmed as the leader of the parliamentary wing and therefore Prime Minister elect. The new federal Cabinet was sworn in by the [[Governor General of Australia]] on 3 December 2007.<br /> <br /> ==Prime Minister of Australia==<br /> <br /> Among Rudd's first acts as Prime Minister was to ratify the [[Kyoto Protocol]], something Howard had refused to do for economic reasons. Additionally, Rudd made a formal parliamentary apology to the &quot;[[Australian Aborigines#Stolen Generation|Stolen Generation]]&quot;, a large group of [[indigenous Australians]] who were forcibly removed from their community in the first half of the 20th century. While there is continued dispute among historians over whether the &quot;Stolen Generation&quot; existed, the Opposition gave its support to the apology. Polls taken since the election show the ALP holding a commanding lead in the polls under Rudd's leadership, with Rudd leading opposition leader Brendan Nelson by 70% to 9% in the &quot;preferred Prime Minister&quot; rating (leading the press to dub Nelson as &quot;Mr. Nine Percent&quot;).&lt;ref name=&quot;ninepercent&quot;&gt;[http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/mr-9-nelsons-parlous-poll-position/2008/02/19/1203190750515.html Mr. 9% - Brendan Nelson's parlous poll position] Fairfax Digital, 19 February 2008, accessed 2 March 2008&lt;/ref&gt; Rudd reduced a Royal Australian Air Force air hostess to tears in April 2009 when he verbally abused her after losing his temper over an in-flight meal.&lt;ref name=&quot;hostess&quot;&gt;[http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/rudd-serves-up-air-rage-apology/story-0-1225698279332 Kevin Rudd loses temper over in-flight meal], Herald Sun, 2 April 2009, accessed 8 November 2009.&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> <br /> ==Foreign Minister of Australia==<br /> Rudd was appointed as Minister for Foreign Affairs of Australia on 14 September 2010. He resigned from that position on 22 February 2012 in a speech at about 1.30am local time, 22 February 2012, in [[The Willard Hotel]] in [[Washington DC]], stating that negative statements by colleagues including the [[Prime Minister of Australia]], [[Julia Gillard]], were a deciding factor in his resignation. The timing in Washington corresponded to late afternoon in eastern Australia, just before the evening TV news.<br /> <br /> ==2013 Leadership Challenge==<br /> Rudd re-took the leadership of the [[Australian Labor Party|ALP]], and following that the office of Prime Minister, on Jun 26th 2013 after a leadership spill. The timing coincided with an imminent federal election which the ALP were expected to lose badly, which they did despite the change in leader.<br /> <br /> ==Personal life==<br /> Rudd grew up in a house steeped in conservative politics. His father was a dairy farmer on the Sunshine Coast of [[Queensland]], and member of the [[National Party of Australia|Country Party]]. After his father was killed in a car accident, when Rudd was 11 year old, the family was forced to leave the farm. Rudd joined the Labor Party at age 15. <br /> <br /> For a time he boarded at Marist College Ashgrove in [[Brisbane, Queensland|Brisbane]]. He was dux of his state high school at Nambour, then went on to study at the [[Australian National University]] in [[Canberra]], the national capital, gaining First Class Honours in Arts (Asian Studies), majoring in [[China|Chinese]] language and history, became proficient in [[Mandarin (language)|Mandarin]], and acquired a Chinese alias, Lù Kèwén (the latter a similar sound to his given name, Kevin.) <br /> <br /> Rudd met his future wife, Therese Rein, at a meeting of the Australian [[Student Christian Movement]] while studying at university. He was then attending a [[Uniting Church in Australia|Uniting]] church. They married in 1981 at [[St John]]'s [[Anglican Church]] in Canberra, and have three children. <br /> <br /> Rudd has given various speeches about his faith, and quotes the German [[theologian]] and [[martyr]] to the anti-[[Nazi]] cause, [[Dietrich Bonhoeffer]], as his hero&lt;ref name=&quot;light&quot; /&gt;.<br /> <br /> Rudd has attended the Anglican church with his wife and family, without formally taking up membership&lt;ref name=&quot;light&quot;&gt;[http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/more-than-just-a-light-on-the-hill/2007/12/21/1198175342004.html More than just a light on the hill], Fairfax Digital, 22 December 2007, accessed 27 December 2007&lt;/ref&gt;. He is credited with being an active member of the Parliamentary Christian Fellowship, attending not only lectures but also Bible studies. He is said to carry a Bible when he travels and has stated he is a creationist:&lt;ref name=&quot;creation&quot;&gt;[http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24260582-911,00.html Why Kevin Rudd believes in God], Adelaide Now, 29 August 2008, accessed 13 December 2009.&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;<br /> “For me, it’s ultimately the order of the cosmos or what I describe as the creation.<br /> <br /> You can’t simply have, in my own judgment, creation simply being a random event because it is so inherently ordered, and the fact that the natural environment is being ordered where it can properly coexist over time.<br /> <br /> If you were simply reducing that to mathematically probabilities I’ve got to say it probably wouldn’t have happened.<br /> <br /> So I think there is an intelligent mind at work.&quot;<br /> &lt;/blockquote&gt;<br /> <br /> ==References==<br /> &lt;references/&gt;<br /> <br /> ==External Links==<br /> *[http://www.kevinpm.com.au/ Kevin Rudd's official website]<br /> <br /> {{Australian Prime Ministers}}<br /> <br /> {{DEFAULTSORT:Rudd, Kevin}}<br /> [[Category:Australian Prime Ministers]]<br /> [[Category:Australian Politicians]]</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=Arthur_Phillip&diff=1016642 2012-11-04T00:10:52Z

<p>Ferret: typo</p> <hr /> <div>'''Admiral Arthur Phillip''' was the first governor of the [[United Kingdom|British]] colony of [[New South Wales]] and founder of [[Sydney]], the first permanent [[Europe|European]] settlement in [[Australia]].<br /> <br /> British [[Home Secretary]] Lord Sydney appointed Phillip as captain of HMS Sirius, the flagship of the (Australian) First Fleet, which set sail on 13 May 1787 with a fleet carrying mostly convicts, and arrived at their intended destination [[Botany Bay]], on the east coast of Australia, in January 1788. Phillip realised that the soil there was not suited to cultivation and there was a lack of fresh water, so he took the fleet a short way further north to the inlet now known as [[Sydney Harbour]] (formally Port Jackson). On 26 January 1788, the fleet landed at a place which Phillip named Sydney Cove, now in the heart of modern day Sydney. The [[Australia Day]] public holiday now marks this occasion as Australia's national day.<br /> <br /> Phillip was now governor of the new colony, and saw it through its early difficult days. By standards of the age, his approach to both the convicts and local [[Aborigine]]s was enlightened. He remained in post long enough to stabilise the colony, before retiring as governor and returning to [[England]] in 1792.</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=Arthur_Phillip&diff=1016641 2012-11-04T00:08:26Z

<p>Ferret: Created page with &quot;'''Admiral Arthur Phillip''' was the first governor of the British colony of New South Wales and founder of Sydney, the first permanent [[Europe|Europe...&quot;</p> <hr /> <div>'''Admiral Arthur Phillip''' was the first governor of the [[United Kingdom|British]] colony of [[New South Wales]] and founder of [[Sydney]], the first permanent [[Europe|European]] settlement in [[Australia]].<br /> <br /> British [[Home Secretary]] Lord Sydney appointed Phillip as captain of HMS Sirius, the flagship of the (Australian) First Fleet, which set sail on 13 May 1787 with a fleet carrying mostly convicts, and arrived at their intended destination [[Botany Bay]], on the east coast of Australia, in January 1788. Phillip realised that the soil there was not suited to cultivation and there was a lack of fresh water, so he took the fleet a short way further north to the inlet now known as [[Sydney Harbour]] (formally Port Jackson). on 26 January 1788, the fleet landed at a place which Phillip named Sydney Cove, now in the heart of modern day Sydney. The [[Australia Day]] public holiday now marks this occasion as Australia's national day.<br /> <br /> Phillip was now governor of the new colony, and saw it through its early difficult days. By standards of the age, his approach to both the convicts and local [[Aborigine]]s was enlightened. He remained in post long enough to stabilise the colony, before retiring as governor and returning to [[England]] in 1792.</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=Margaret_Thatcher&diff=1016640 2012-11-03T23:39:40Z

<p>Ferret: Adding acute</p> <hr /> <div>{{Prime Minister<br /> |image=Margaret_Thatcher.jpg<br /> |seq=71<br /> |term_start=May 4 1979<br /> |term_end=November 28 1990<br /> |party=Conservative Party<br /> |previous=James Callaghan<br /> |next=John Major<br /> |birth_date=October 13 1925<br /> |birth_place=Grantham<br /> |spouse=[[Denis Thatcher|Sir Denis Thatcher, Bt]]<br /> |religion=[[Methodist]]<br /> }}<br /> <br /> '''Margaret Hilda Thatcher (n&amp;eacute;e Roberts)''', Baroness Thatcher of Kesteven, LG, OM, PC (born October 13, 1925), was [[Prime Minister]] of the [[United Kingdom]] from 1979 to 1990, the first woman to hold the position. Her leadership permanently moved Britain to the right and reshaped the nation's political environment to stress economic growth and international competitiveness. The [[Labour Party]] in response under [[Tony Blair]] jettisoned their old leftist ideas and followed Thatcher-lite programs.<br /> <br /> Thatcher was chosen to be the leader of the Conservative Party in February 1975, succeeding former Prime Minister [[Edward Heath]]. She was opposed to [[socialism]] and out-of-control union power which had brought down the previous Conservative government in 1974. She led the Conservatives to victory in the May 1979 [[General Election]] and thus became Prime Minister.<br /> {{cquote|'''The economic success of the Western world is a product of its moral philosophy and practice. ''The economic results are better because the moral philosophy is superior.'' Choice is the essence of ethics: if there were no choice, there would be no ethics, no good, no evil; good and evil have meaning only insofar as man is free to choose.''' &lt;ref&gt;[http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/103336 1977 speech by Margaret Thatcher; Zurich Economic Society]&lt;/ref&gt;}} <br /> <br /> Thatcher sold many of the UK's nationalized industries back to private investors and made tax cuts. She broke the power of the trade unions which stood in the way of industrial progress, especially in the mining, print and shipbuilding industries and the public sector. Due to her strong standards and her leadership style, she became known as the &quot;[[Iron Lady]],&quot; a term originally coined as an insult by the communist [[Soviet Union]], but one she adopted. A famous statement of hers was &quot;You turn if you want to, but the lady's not for turning&quot;, in reference to calls from within her own party to back down (in the political terminology of the time, &quot;U-turn&quot;) on issues that were important to her. Thatcher was always a strong supporter of close relations with the [[United States]], and was a good friend of President [[Ronald Reagan]], uniting with him in actions against the Communists. <br /> <br /> She led Britain to victory against [[Argentina]] in a 1982 war over Argentinian aggression against the [[Falkland Islands]]. The United States was allied with both countries, and initially tried to broker a negotiated settlement. When Thatcher rejected the proposed compromise, the U.S. supported Britain with intelligence information and the supply of advanced AIM-9L Sidewinder missiles. The conflict led to a strong friendship with the Chilean leader [[Augusto Pinochet]] after Chile helped Britain in the conflict. In 1986, she banned the promotion of homosexuality in schools in a piece of legislation known as [[Section 28]].<br /> <br /> Thatcher led the Conservative Party to victory in three general elections (1979, 1983 and 1987). By 1990, her popularity was waning and there were calls from within her own party for her to step aside. She was challenged for the party leadership and just failed to gain the necessary majority in the first election despite getting more votes than her rival [[Michael Heseltine]]. After being convinced by colleagues that she would narrowly fail to gain the necessary votes she decided not to stand for a second ballot and resigned as party leader on 22 November 1990. [[John Major]] won the party leadership vote, and was subsequently appointed to succeed Thatcher as Prime Minister. Heseltine's reputation was destroyed by his actions and his career in the Conservative Party slowly declined, although he remained in the British government and was Deputy Prime Minister between 1995 and 1997.. <br /> <br /> ''Thatcher was the longest serving British Prime Minister in more than 150 years and, alongside [[Winston Churchill]], is considered to be one of the two most important British political leaders of the twentieth century.''<br /> <br /> She fundamentally moved the British economy from factories and mines to services and finance. [[Time|Time Magazine]] wrote of Lady Thatcher: <br /> {{cquote|'''She was the catalyst who set in motion a series of interconnected events that gave a revolutionary twist to the century's last two decades and helped mankind end the millennium on a note of hope and confidence. The triumph of capitalism, the almost universal acceptance of the market as indispensable to prosperity, the collapse of Soviet imperialism, the downsizing of the state on nearly every continent and in almost every country in the world — Margaret Thatcher played a part in all those transformations, and it is not easy to see how any would have occurred without her. ''Champion of free minds and markets, she helped topple the welfare state and make the world safer for capitalism and mankind.''''' &lt;ref&gt;[http://www.time.com/time/time100/leaders/profile/thatcher.html Time Magazine; Time 100 citation]&lt;/ref&gt;}}&lt;br /&gt;<br /> <br /> ==Career prior to 1979==<br /> <br /> The predominant influence in Lady Thatcher's early life was her father, [[Alfred Roberts]]. Roberts was a grocer by occupation who was active in local politics. She attended Somerville College, [[Oxford University|Oxford]], where she read chemistry and became chairman of the university Conservative association. After graduating, she worked for a time as a research chemist before qualifying as a barrister and practicing as a tax lawyer, an indication of her interest in financial matters. In this time period, it was uncommon in Britain for a woman from a background to go to an upper-class university and then to pursue a career in the elitist male world of the Bar.<br /> <br /> Lady Thatcher married Denis Thatcher, a successful businessman whom she met at a Conservative Party meeting; a quiet man, he kept out of the spotlight. They had two children, twins Mark Thatcher and Carol Thatcher.<br /> <br /> Under the weak and troubled Conservative premiership of [[Edward Heath]] (1970-1974), Thatcher served as Secretary of State for Education during which time her most noted achievement was the withdrawal of a daily milk ration to primary age schoolchildren earning her the nickname Milk-Snatcher. After the Conservatives were defeated in the elections of February and October 1974, Thatcher challenged the more liberal Heath for the leadership of the party. When she went into Heath's office to tell him her decision, he did not even bother to look up. &quot;You'll lose,&quot; he said. &quot;Good day to you.&quot; [http://www.time.com/time/time100/leaders/profile/thatcher.html]<br /> <br /> Though at the time she was a relatively untested figure (and many in the party were wary of choosing a woman leader), she defeated both Heath and other male rivals in the contest in February 1975. Heath subsequently became a prominent personal and political adversary of Thatcher, drawing accusations of bitterness.<br /> <br /> In the 1970s, Thatcher's strongly conservative, pro-capitalist stance resonated with a new mood among the British electorate, many of whom had become dissatisfied with the post-[[World War II]] statist consensus (the &quot;post-war consensus&quot;, sometimes also called &quot;Butskellism&quot; after the centrist Conservative politician [[Rab Butler]] and the moderate Labour politician [[Hugh Gaitskell]]). Thatcher and the Conservatives offered a clear alternative vision for an increasingly aspirational society. The Conservative politician Sir [[Keith Joseph]] was the primary intellectual force behind these theories that later became known as ''Thatcherism''. They were strongly influenced by the pro-market intellectuals [[Friedrich von Hayek]] and [[Milton Friedman]].<br /> [[Image:503px-Thatcher-loc.jpg|right|thumb|Margaret Thatcher as Leader of the Opposition in 1975.]]<br /> <br /> ===Attitude to Abortion===<br /> Thatcher, throughout her parliamentary career, voted in favor of liberal abortion laws.[http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/1988thatcher.html]<br /> <br /> ==1979 election==<br /> The Labour party under [[James Callaghan]] (prime minister 1976-79) contested the May 1979 election as unemployment passed the one-million mark and unions became more aggressive. The Conservatives used a highly effective poster created by Saatchi and Saatchi, showing a dole queue snaking into the distance and it carried the caption &quot;Labour isn't working&quot;. <br /> [[Image:THATCH~1.JPG|right|350px]]<br /> Voters gave Conservatives 43.9% of the vote and 339 seats to Labour's 269, for an overall majority of 43 seats. People generally voted against Labour rather than for the Conservatives. Labour was weakened by the steady long-term decline in the proportion of manual workers in the electorate. Twice as many manual workers normally voted Labour as voted Conservative, but they now constituted only 56% of the electorate. When [[Harold Wilson]] won narrowly for Labour in 1964, they had accounted for 63%. Furthermore they were beginning to turn against the trade unions—alienated, perhaps, by the difficulties of the winter of 1978-9. In contrast, Tory policies stressing wider home ownership, which Labour refused to match. Thatcher did best in districts where the economy was relatively strong and was weaker where it was contracting.<br /> <br /> ==Prime Ministership==<br /> ===Economic policy===<br /> Thatcher's chief goals in power were to reverse Britain's economic decline and to reduce the range of the state as well as standing taller on the international stage. She found a soul-mate in Ronald Reagan, elected in 1980 but whom she had met in 1975. Thatcher started by increasing interest rates to drive down inflation which hit the manufacturing sector and caused unemployment to rise sharply and there was a deep recession in the early 1980s blamed on her Government's economic policy. This led to her famous quote: 'the lady is not for turning', and she refused a policy reversal and, despite an open letter from 364 &quot;economists&quot;, taxes were increased in the middle of a recession. Although unemployment did not reach 3 million till 1982, a year earlier British cities burned as thousands took to the streets to demonstrate their frustration. Inflation was going down though, allowing interest rates to fall, proving those &quot;economists&quot; wrong.<br /> <br /> ===Falkland Islands===<br /> As the economy started to recover Argentina invaded the Falklands, the first (and unprovoked) invasion of sovereign British territory by a foreign government since the Second World War. This invasion was preceded, and possibly encouraged, by her withdrawal of the Royal Navy's antarctic patrol ship ''HMS Endurance'' from the South Atlantic. Thatcher immediately declared her resolve to recapture the islands in line with the wishes of their inhabitants, and dispatched a naval task force to that end. With help from President [[Augusto Pinochet|Pinochet]] of [[Chile]] and, more covertly, [[Ronald Reagan]], the British forces swiftly recaptured the islands. The resulting wave of patriotic enthusiasm as well as her right to buy policy for council homes, and a uselessly divided opposition, meant she got a landslide victory in the June 1983 general election.<br /> <br /> ===Unions===<br /> The central theme of Thatcher's second term was reducing the power of the trade unions with a series of measures that a number of unions reacted to with industrial action. In particular the National Union of Mineworkers led by Arthur Scargill. The Tories had prepared for the strike by building up coal reserves and the deploying well paid police units fitted out with new riot gear brought in after the disturbances of 1981 who taunted the strikers by waving fivers at them. The miners responded with bricks and very ugly scenes developed on picket lines that split the country. Scargill's failure to hold a ballot for the strike undermined public support and the striker's chant of 'vote with your feet' calling miners to join the strike was turned on them as more and more returned to work over the year of the strike.<br /> ===IRA===<br /> In the middle of the strike, on October 12 1984, the IRA detonated a bomb during the Conservative Party conference in Brighton. Thatcher escaped injury but five people died in the attack and Margaret Tebbit was left paralyzed; the conference went on as normal. <br /> ===Privatization===<br /> Thatcher's political and economic philosophy emphasized free markets and since gaining power she had experimented in selling off nationalized industries starting with the National Freight company, most of the large utilities followed.<br /> <br /> Privatization was perhaps the most enduring legacy of the political economy developed under Thatcher. She privatized long-nationalized corporations (such as the telephone and aerospace firms) and, most important, sold public housing to tenants, all on favorable terms. Theis turned Labour-minded tenants into Conservative-minded property owners and mortgage payers. The policy developed an important electoral dimension during the second Thatcher government (1983-90). It involved more than denationalization: wider share ownership was the second plank of the policy, and this provides an important historical perspective on the relationship between Thatcherism and 20th-century conservatism.&lt;ref&gt; Richard Stevens, &quot;The Evolution of Privatisation as an Electoral Policy, c. 1970-90.&quot; ''Contemporary British History'' 2004 18(2): 47-75. Issn: 1361-9462 Fulltext: [[Ebsco]]&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> <br /> ===Foreign policy===<br /> Thatcher supported Reagan's [[Cold War]] policies of [[rollback]] of Communism. She supported the stationing of nuclear missiles in Europe and at British bases, ignoring the last-gasp protests by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament. She supported the American bombing raid on [[Libya]] from bases in Britain in 1986 and, by refusing to side with a European consortium, in backing the American-based Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation over a British company Westland. [[Michael Heseltine]] resigned in protest at her style of leadership over this. <br /> <br /> In 1984 she visited [[China]] and signed the Sino-British Joint Declaration with [[Deng Xiaoping]] that agreed the handover of [[Hong Kong]] in 1997. At the Fontainebleau summit in 1984 Thatcher argued that the UK paid far more to the EEC than it received in spending and negotiated a budget rebate using the argument that ‘We want our money back’. In 1985, the University of Oxford voted to refuse her an honorary degree in protest against her cuts in funding for education.<br /> ===Reelected 1987===<br /> In 1987, Thatcher became the first British Prime Minister to win three consecutive general elections since [[Lord Liverpool]] (1812-1827). <br /> ===Environment===<br /> In the late 1980's Thatcher began to be concerned by environmental policy and in 1988 she made a major speech accepting the problems of global warming, ozone depletion and acid rain. &lt;ref&gt;[http://www.margaretthatcher.org/speeches/displaydocument.asp?docid=107346 Speech to the Royal Society, 9/27/1988]&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> <br /> ===Europe===<br /> At Bruges, she made a speech in which she outlined her opposition to proposals from the European Communities for a federal structure and increasing centralization of decision-making believing that the role of the EC should be limited to ensuring free trade and effective competition. She was specifically against Economic and Monetary Union, through which a single currency would replace national currencies, and for which the EC was making preparations. In 1989 the economy high interest rates were imposed to stop an unsustainable boom. At the Madrid European summit, Nigel Lawson and Geoffrey Howe forced Thatcher to agree the circumstances in which she would join the Exchange Rate Mechanism, a preparation for monetary union. She took revenge on both by demoting Howe and listening more to her adviser Sir Alan Walters on economic matters. Lawson resigned that October and in November, a so-called ‘stalking horse candidate Sir Anthony Meyer challenged Thatcher for the leadership of the Conservative Party. In 1989 a new system of local government finance to replace the rates was introduced for Scotland in 1989 and for England and Wales in 1990. Called the 'Community Charge' but known as the Poll Tax was applied at the same amount to every individual resident with only limited discounts. Widespread opposition culminated in a huge [http://newsfilm.bufvc.ac.uk/article.php?story=200510081953085 demonstration] in London on March 31 that turned into the largest outbreak of public disorder central London had seen in a century which was followed by millions of people refusing to pay the tax. This along with her government's handling of the economy, her perceived arrogance and a general feeling that she would never retire, made her politically vulnerable. Geoffrey Howe resigned on November 1 and condemned Thatcher's policy on the European Communities then openly invited 'others to consider their own response'. Michael Heseltine's response was a leadership challenge which resulted in a narrow failure, by two votes, for Thatcher to win automatic re-election. After consulting with cabinet colleagues she found a vast majority thought that she could not win on the second ballot. On November 22nd Thatcher announced that she would not be a candidate in the second ballot. She supported John Major as her successor, and retired from Parliament at the 1992 election.<br /> <br /> ==Thatcherism==<br /> [[Thatcherism]] refers to Thatcher's economic policies while prime minister 1979 and 1990.<br /> It consisted of<br /> *[[free market]] [[Supply-side economics|supply-side economics]]<br /> *[[tax]] reduction <br /> *artificial manipulation of the money supply to reduce [[inflation]]<br /> *[[privatization]] of public industry<br /> *reining in of [[labor union|trade union]] influence and power<br /> <br /> ==Life after being Prime Minister==<br /> <br /> After leaving the House of Commons, Thatcher was dubbed '''Baroness Thatcher of Kesteven''' and entered the House of Lords. Denis Thatcher was given a Baronetcy, which ensured that their son, Mark, would inherit the title of &quot;Sir Mark&quot;.<br /> <br /> She publicly endorsed [[William Hague]] against Kenneth Clarke for the Conservative leadership in 1997. She made many speaking engagements around the world, including very vocal support of former General [[Augusto Pinochet]], whom the new Labour administration extradited to Spain on trumped-up charges of torturing political opponents. In March 2002 she suffered a mild stroke, and made few speeches. In 2004 she attended the funeral of her old friend and political soul-mate, Ronald Reagan. Baroness Thatcher is still seen at Tory party gatherings and has continued endorsing party leaders, such as Iain Duncan Smith. In August 2008, it became known that she was suffering from [[dementia]] and had withdrawn from public life. &lt;ref&gt;[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7579352.stm Thatcher suffers from dementia]&lt;/ref&gt; <br /> [http://www.time.com/time/time100/leaders/profile/thatcher.html][http://www.fandmpublications.co.uk/pages/margaretbiography1.htm][http://www.pm.gov.uk/output/Page126.asp]<br /> <br /> ==Quick Facts==<br /> *Born: 13 October 1925 in [[Grantham]], [[Lincolnshire]]<br /> <br /> *First entered Parliament: 8 October 1959<br /> <br /> *Became leader of the [[Conservative]] Party in February 1975<br /> <br /> *Elected as Prime Minister in May 1979 <br /> <br /> *Age she became PM: 53 years, 204 days<br /> <br /> *Maiden Speech: 5 February 1960 during the second reading of her Private Member's Bill<br /> <br /> *Total time as PM: 11 years, 209 days<br /> <br /> *Nickname: &quot;The Iron Lady&quot;<br /> <br /> *Education: Kesteven and Grantham Girls' School and Somerville College, Oxford<br /> <br /> *Before Thatcher became an MP, she worked as a research chemist for British Xylonite and then Lyons &amp; Company, where she helped develop methods for preserving ice cream.<br /> <br /> *Family: Margaret Thatcher is the younger of two daughters. She often gave her father as an example of an outstanding citizen. She married [[Sir Denis Thatcher]], and has one son and one daughter.<br /> <br /> *Interests: Music, art, opera and reading.<br /> <br /> [http://www.pm.gov.uk/output/Page126.asp][http://www.time.com/time/time100/leaders/profile/thatcher.html]<br /> <br /> ==Husband==<br /> Denis Thatcher, ''as the first male PM spouse in history'', was always likely to be the center of media attention - and he didn't disappoint. <br /> <br /> When she met him, Baroness Thatcher remarked that &quot;it was clear to me at once that Denis was an exceptional man - he had a certain style and dash.&quot; Described as a man of integrity, humor and common sense, he had a strong business background and fought with the Royal Artillery during the war. <br /> <br /> It was said that Denis was in 'the Thatcher party not the Tory party'. He once famously remarked, recalling the words of Mark Twain, that: &quot;it's better to keep my mouth shut and be thought a fool rather than open it and remove all doubt.&quot; <br /> <br /> When he died in 2003 his wife paid tribute to the man she loved by saying: &quot;Being PM is a lonely job. In a sense, it ought to be - you cannot lead from a crowd. But with Denis there I was never alone. What a man. What a husband. What a friend.&quot;<br /> <br /> [http://www.pm.gov.uk/output/Page126.asp][http://www.time.com/time/time100/leaders/profile/thatcher.html]<br /> <br /> == Notable quotes== <br /> <br /> *&quot;I like Mr Gorbachev, we can do business together.&quot; <br /> <br /> *&quot;The lady is not for turning&quot;<br /> <br /> *&quot;I have made it quite clear that a unified Ireland was one solution that is out. A second solution was a confederation of two states. That is out. A third solution was joint authority. That is out-that is a derogation of sovereignty.&quot; <br /> <br /> *&quot;I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.&quot; <br /> <br /> *&quot;If you lead a country like Britain, a strong country, a country which has taken a lead in world affairs in good times and in bad, a country that is always reliable, then you have to have a touch of iron about you.&quot; <br /> <br /> *&quot;I do not know anyone who has got to the top without hard work. That is the recipe. It will not always get you to the top, but should get you pretty near.&quot; <br /> <br /> *&quot; There is no such thing as [[society]]. There is living tapestry of men and women and people and the beauty of that tapestry and the quality of our lives will depend upon how much each of us is prepared to take responsibility for ourselves and each of us prepared to turn round and help by our own efforts those who are unfortunate&quot;&lt;ref&gt;[http://www.margaretthatcher.org/speeches/displaydocument.asp?docid=106689 Interview in ''Woman's Own'']&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> <br /> *&quot;What Britain needs is an iron lady.&quot; <br /> <br /> *&quot;Unless we change our ways and our direction, our greatness as a nation will soon be a footnote in the history books, a distant memory of an offshore island, lost in the mists of time like Camelot, remembered kindly for its noble past.&quot; <br /> <br /> *&quot;I just owe almost everything to my father [and] it's passionately interesting for me that the things that I learned in a small town, in a very modest home, are just the things that I believe have won the election.&quot; <br /> <br /> *&quot;Democratic nations must try to find ways to starve the terrorist and the hijacker of the oxygen of publicity on which they depend.&quot;&lt;ref&gt;[http://www.quoteworld.org/authors/margaret-thatcher/1/ Quotes by Margaret Thatcher]&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> <br /> *&quot;It will be years before a woman either leads the Conservative Party or becomes Prime Minister. I don't see it happening in my time&quot; (in 1970.) This quote was parodied in the 2006 TV series Life on Mars, when DCI Gene Hunt (speaking in 1973) stated &quot;There'll never be a woman Prime Minister as long as I have a hole in my ar*e.&quot;<br /> <br /> *“You may have to fight the battle more than once to win it.” &lt;ref&gt;[http://books.google.com/books?id=zac9AAAAIAAJ&amp;pg=PA283&amp;dq=fight+the+battle+more+than+once+to+win+it.&amp;ei=3hpnS82IAaSyNNvx1PwN&amp;cd=2 The Routledge dictionary of quotations‎ - Page 283 by Robert Andrews]&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> <br /> == See also ==<br /> *[[Thatcherism]]<br /> *[[Conservative Links]]<br /> <br /> ==External Links==<br /> * [http://www.margaretthatcher.org/ Margaret Thatcher Foundation]<br /> <br /> ==References==<br /> {{reflist}}<br /> ==Bibliography==<br /> [[File:Thatcher-pic.jpg|thumb|260px]]<br /> ===Biography===<br /> * Blundell, John. ''Margaret Thatcher: A Portrait of the Iron Lady'' (2008) [http://www.amazon.com/Margaret-Thatcher-Portrait-Iron-Lady/dp/087586631X/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1256981278&amp;sr=1-9 excerpt and text search]<br /> * Campbell, John. ''Margaret Thatcher. Vol. 1: The Grocer's Daughter.'' (2000); ''Margaret Thatcher. vol. 2: Iron Lady'' (2007), 520pp; 913pp; long, detailed authoritative biography <br /> * Clarke, Peter. &quot;Margaret Thatcher's Place in History: Two Views,&quot; ''Journal of the History of Economic Thought'' 2002 24(3): 357-368 online at EBSCO<br /> * Geelhoed, Bruce E. and Hobbs, James F. ''Margaret Thatcher's Last Hurrah: In Victory and Downfall, 1987 and 1990.'' (1992). 193 pp. [http://www.questia.com/read/15091359?title=Margaret%20Thatcher%3a%20In%20Victory%20and%20Downfall%2c%201987%20and%201990 online edition]; also [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Margaret-Thatcher-Victory-Downfall-1987/dp/0275941485/ref=sr_1_34?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1212823416&amp;sr=8-34 excerpt and text search]<br /> * King, Anthony. &quot;The Outsider as Political Leader: the Case of Margaret Thatcher.&quot; ''British Journal of Political Science'' 2002 32(3): 435-454. Issn: 0007-1234 Fulltext: [[CUP]] and [[Jstor]]. Thatcher was a social outsider, psychological outsider and political outsider.<br /> * Thompson, Juliet S., and Wayne C. Thompson. ''Margaret Thatcher: Prime Minister Indomitable'' (1994) [http://www.questia.com/read/85710688?title=Margaret%20Thatcher%3a%20Prime%20Minister%20Indomitable online edition]<br /> * Young, Hugo. ''The Iron Lady: A Biography of Margaret Thatcher.'' (1989). 570 pp. well-written and well researched <br /> <br /> ===Political studies===<br /> * Adonis, Andrew, and Tim Hames, eds. ''A Conservative Revolution: The Thatcher-Reagan Decade'' (1994), comparative perspective<br /> * Backhouse, Roger E. &quot;The Macroeconomics of Margaret Thatcher,&quot; ''Journal of the History of Economic Thought'' 2002 24(3): 313-334 online at EBSCO<br /> * Dellheim, Charles. ''The Disenchanted Isle: Mrs. Thatcher's Capitalist Revolution.'' (1995) 352 pp. <br /> * Evans, Brendan. ''Thatcherism and British Politics, 1975-1997'' (2000) <br /> * Evans, Eric J. ''Thatcher and Thatcherism.'' (2nd ed. 2004). 176 pp [http://www.questia.com/read/107494201?title=Thatcher%20and%20Thatcherism online edition]<br /> * Fry, Geoffrey K. ''Politics of the Thatcher Revolution: An Interpretation of British Politics 1975 - 1990'' (2008) [http://www.amazon.com/Politics-Thatcher-Revolution-Interpretation-British/dp/0333751965/ref=sr_1_11?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1256981278&amp;sr=1-11 excerpt and text search]<br /> * Haseler, Stephen. ''The Battle for Britain: Thatcher and the New Liberals.'' (1990). 195 pp. <br /> * Holmes, Martin. ''The First Thatcher Government, 1979-83: Contemporary Conservatism and Economic Change'' (1985); ''Thatcherism: Scope and Limits, 1983-87.'' (1989). 174 pp. a sympathetic assessment.<br /> * Jenkins, Peter. ''Mrs. Thatcher's Revolution: The Ending of the Socialist Era.'' (1988). 417 pp. critical<br /> * Johnson, Christopher. ''The Grand Experiment: Mrs. Thatcher's Economy and How It Spread.'' (1993). 341 pp. <br /> * Kavanagh, Dennis. ''Thatcherism and British Politics: The End of Consensus?'' (1987). 334 pp. <br /> * Kavanagh, Dennis, and Anthony Seldon, eds. ''The Thatcher Effect'' (1989), major interpretive essays by experts<br /> * Krieger, Joel. ''Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Decline.'' (1987). 247 pp. <br /> * Moon, Jeremy. ''Innovative Leadership in Democracy: Policy Change under Thatcher.'' (1993). 157 pp. <br /> * Morgan, K.O. ''The People's Peace: British History, 1945-90'' (1990) survey by leading scholar<br /> * Pugliese, Stanislao, ed. ''The Political Legacy of Margaret Thatcher.'' (2003). 419 pp. <br /> * Reitan, Earl A. ''The Thatcher Revolution: Margaret Thatcher, John Major, and Tony Blair, and the Transformation of Modern Britain, 1979-2001.'' (2003). 260 pp. <br /> * Reitan, Earl A. ''Tory Radicalism: Margaret Thatcher, John Major, and the Transformation of Modern Britain, 1979-1997.'' (1997). 222 pp. <br /> * Riddell, Peter. ''The Thatcher Decade: How Britain Has Changed during the 1980's.'' (1989). 236 pp. <br /> * Roy, Subroto and Clarke, John, eds. ''Margaret Thatcher's Revolution: How It Happened and What It Meant.'' (2005). 209 pp. <br /> * Savage, S.P., and L. Robbins, eds. ''Public Policy under Thatcher'' (1990), essays by experts<br /> * Sharp, Paul. ''Thatcher's Diplomacy: The Revival of British Foreign Policy.'' (1997). 269 pp. <br /> * Smith, Geoffrey. ''Reagan and Thatcher.'' (1991). 285 pp. <br /> * Waine, Barbara. ''The Rhetoric of Independence: The Ideology and Practice of Social Policy in Thatcher's Britain.'' (1992). 172 pp. <br /> * Wall, Stephen. ''A Stranger in Europe: Britain and the EU from Thatcher to Blair'' (2008) [http://www.amazon.com/Stranger-Europe-Britain-Thatcher-Blair/dp/0199284555/ref=sr_1_26?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1212823185&amp;sr=1-26 excerpt and text search]<br /> * Walters, A. A. ''Britain's Economic Renaissance: Margaret Thatcher's Reforms, 1979-1984.'' (1986). 200 pp. <br /> * Wapshott, Nicholas. ''Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher: A Political Marriage.'' (2007) 329 pp. [http://www.amazon.com/Ronald-Reagan-Margaret-Thatcher-Political/dp/159523053X/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1256981278&amp;sr=1-2 excerpt and text search]<br /> * Whipple, Amy C. &quot;'Ordinary People': The Cultural Origins of Popular Thatcherism in Britain, 1964-1979.&quot; PhD dissertation Northwestern U. 2004. 253 pp. DAI 2004 65(5): 1926-A. DA3132626 Fulltext: [[ProQuest Dissertations &amp; Theses]]<br /> * [http://www.amazon.com/Margaret-Thatcher-Bibliography-Bibliographies-Statesmen/dp/book-citations/0313282889/ref=sid_dp_av?ie=UTF8&amp;citeType=citing#citing additional books]<br /> ===Primary sources===<br /> * Clark, Alan. ''Mrs. Thatcher's Minister: The Private Diaries of Alan Clark.'' (1994). 421 pp. <br /> * Thatcher, Margaret. ''The Path to Power (1995); ''The Downing Street Years.'' (1993). 914 pp., highly detailed memoirs<br /> <br /> {{DEFAULTSORT:Thatcher, Margaret}}<br /> [[Category:Abortion Advocates]]<br /> [[Category:British History]]<br /> [[Category:British Politics]]<br /> [[Category:Cold War]]<br /> [[Category:Conservatives]]<br /> [[Category:English people]]<br /> [[Category:United Kingdom Prime Ministers]]</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=1016443 2012-11-03T03:12:27Z

<p>Ferret: It's been a while, apologies</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> ! 29 Feb 2012<br /> ! 9 March 2012<br /> ! 11 April 2012<br /> ! 19 April 2012<br /> ! 12 May 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 28.7%<br /> | 32.1%<br /> | 34.0%<br /> | 33.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> | 5.9%<br /> | 4.2%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Jeb Bush<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> | '''38.2%'''<br /> | '''37.0%'''<br /> | '''36.6%'''<br /> | '''37.1%'''<br /> | '''35.3%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 60.1%<br /> | 61.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> | 62.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> | '''61.8%'''<br /> | '''63.0%'''<br /> | '''63.4%'''<br /> | '''62.9%'''<br /> | '''64.7%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from August 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 9 Aug 2012<br /> ! 16 Sept 2012<br /> ! 26 Sept 2012<br /> ! 3 November 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 34.4%<br /> | 27.7%<br /> | 21.7%<br /> | 22.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 65.6%<br /> | 72.3%<br /> | 78.3%<br /> | 77.5%<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=1009226 2012-09-26T12:26:32Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> ! 29 Feb 2012<br /> ! 9 March 2012<br /> ! 11 April 2012<br /> ! 19 April 2012<br /> ! 12 May 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 28.7%<br /> | 32.1%<br /> | 34.0%<br /> | 33.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> | 5.9%<br /> | 4.2%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Jeb Bush<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> | '''38.2%'''<br /> | '''37.0%'''<br /> | '''36.6%'''<br /> | '''37.1%'''<br /> | '''35.3%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 60.1%<br /> | 61.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> | 62.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> | '''61.8%'''<br /> | '''63.0%'''<br /> | '''63.4%'''<br /> | '''62.9%'''<br /> | '''64.7%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from August 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 9 Aug 2012<br /> ! 16 Sept 2012<br /> ! 26 Sept 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 34.4%<br /> | 27.7%<br /> | 21.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 65.6%<br /> | 72.3%<br /> | 78.3%<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=1006745 2012-09-16T11:23:24Z

<p>Ferret: Update</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> ! 29 Feb 2012<br /> ! 9 March 2012<br /> ! 11 April 2012<br /> ! 19 April 2012<br /> ! 12 May 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 28.7%<br /> | 32.1%<br /> | 34.0%<br /> | 33.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> | 5.9%<br /> | 4.2%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Jeb Bush<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> | '''38.2%'''<br /> | '''37.0%'''<br /> | '''36.6%'''<br /> | '''37.1%'''<br /> | '''35.3%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 60.1%<br /> | 61.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> | 62.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> | '''61.8%'''<br /> | '''63.0%'''<br /> | '''63.4%'''<br /> | '''62.9%'''<br /> | '''64.7%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from August 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 9 Aug 2012<br /> ! 16 Sept 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 34.4%<br /> | 27.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 65.6%<br /> | 72.3%<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=999236 2012-08-09T11:37:58Z

<p>Ferret: First update for a while</p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> ! 29 Feb 2012<br /> ! 9 March 2012<br /> ! 11 April 2012<br /> ! 19 April 2012<br /> ! 12 May 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 28.7%<br /> | 32.1%<br /> | 34.0%<br /> | 33.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> | 5.9%<br /> | 4.2%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Jeb Bush<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> | '''38.2%'''<br /> | '''37.0%'''<br /> | '''36.6%'''<br /> | '''37.1%'''<br /> | '''35.3%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 60.1%<br /> | 61.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> | 62.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> | '''61.8%'''<br /> | '''63.0%'''<br /> | '''63.4%'''<br /> | '''62.9%'''<br /> | '''64.7%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from August 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 9 Aug 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 34.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 65.6%<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=980899 2012-05-12T04:10:16Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> ! 29 Feb 2012<br /> ! 9 March 2012<br /> ! 11 April 2012<br /> ! 19 April 2012<br /> ! 12 May 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 28.7%<br /> | 32.1%<br /> | 34.0%<br /> | 33.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> | 5.9%<br /> | 4.2%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Jeb Bush<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> | '''38.2%'''<br /> | '''37.0%'''<br /> | '''36.6%'''<br /> | '''37.1%'''<br /> | '''35.3%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 60.1%<br /> | 61.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> | 62.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 2.6%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> | '''61.8%'''<br /> | '''63.0%'''<br /> | '''63.4%'''<br /> | '''62.9%'''<br /> | '''64.7%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=976691 2012-04-19T13:17:40Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> ! 29 Feb 2012<br /> ! 9 March 2012<br /> ! 11 April 2012<br /> ! 19 April 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 28.7%<br /> | 32.1%<br /> | 34.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> | 5.9%<br /> | 4.2%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Jeb Bush<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> | '''38.2%'''<br /> | '''37.0%'''<br /> | '''36.6%'''<br /> | '''37.1%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 60.1%<br /> | 61.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> | 62.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> | '''61.8%'''<br /> | '''63.0%'''<br /> | '''63.4%'''<br /> | '''62.9%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=974924 2012-04-11T13:05:27Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> ! 29 Feb 2012<br /> ! 9 March 2012<br /> ! 11 April 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 28.7%<br /> | 32.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> | 5.9%<br /> | 4.2%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Jeb Bush<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> | '''38.2%'''<br /> | '''37.0%'''<br /> | '''36.6%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 60.1%<br /> | 61.9%<br /> | 62.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> | '''61.8%'''<br /> | '''63.0%'''<br /> | '''63.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=967323 2012-03-09T11:57:11Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> ! 29 Feb 2012<br /> ! 9 March 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> | 28.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> | 5.9%<br /> | 4.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Jeb Bush<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> | '''38.2%'''<br /> | '''37.0%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 60.1%<br /> | 61.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> | '''61.8%'''<br /> | '''63.0%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=964854 2012-02-29T11:44:00Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> ! 29 Feb 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> | 27.2%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> | 5.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Jeb Bush<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 1.7%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> | '''38.2%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> | 60.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> | '''61.8%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret https://www.conservapedia.com/index.php?title=User:Ferret/2012ElectionOdds&diff=962905 2012-02-20T20:06:49Z

<p>Ferret: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Probability to end of January 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 11 Dec 2011<br /> ! 17 Dec 2011<br /> ! 26 Dec 2011<br /> ! 1 Jan 2012<br /> ! 5 Jan 2012<br /> ! 11 Jan 2012<br /> ! 18 Jan 2012<br /> ! 23 Jan 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 18.2%<br /> | 10.5%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 2.9%<br /> | 2.7%<br /> | 2.4%<br /> | 10.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 20.5%<br /> | 20.4%<br /> | 28.0%<br /> | 34.2%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 34.1%<br /> | 36.7%<br /> | 30.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.8%<br /> | 4.4%<br /> | 5.0%<br /> | 3.7%<br /> | 3.4%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 3.1%<br /> |-<br /> | Jon Huntsman<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.6%<br /> | 3.2%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.9%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Perry<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.3%<br /> | 1.2%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Michele Bachmann<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.0%<br /> | 1.1%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.7%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 4.1%<br /> | 3.0%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.4%<br /> |-<br /> | Rudy Giuliani<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.3%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''53.0%'''<br /> | '''50.6%'''<br /> | '''49.3%'''<br /> | '''50.3%'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''45.1%'''<br /> | '''44.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 44.8%<br /> | 47.3%<br /> | 48.5%<br /> | 47.5%<br /> | 50.5%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.7%<br /> | 52.9%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Joe Biden<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.5%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.6%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> | 0.0%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''47.0%'''<br /> | '''49.4%'''<br /> | '''50.7%'''<br /> | '''49.7%'''<br /> | '''52.6%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.5%'''<br /> | '''54.7%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Gary Johnson<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> | 0.4%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Independent Total'''<br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | <br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> | '''0.4%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> '''Probability from February 2012'''<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wikitable&quot;<br /> |-<br /> ! Candidate<br /> ! 1 Feb 2012<br /> ! 8 Feb 2012<br /> ! 11 Feb 2012<br /> ! 20 Feb 2012<br /> |-<br /> | Newt Gingrich<br /> | 4.3%<br /> | 2.1%<br /> | 2.0%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Mitt Romney<br /> | 36.4%<br /> | 33.2%<br /> | 29.9%<br /> | 26.7%<br /> |-<br /> | Ron Paul<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.6%<br /> | 1.5%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | Rick Santorum<br /> | 0.9%<br /> | 5.1%<br /> | 6.9%<br /> | 7.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Republican Total'''<br /> | '''43.4%'''<br /> | '''42.0%'''<br /> | '''40.3%'''<br /> | '''37.9%'''<br /> |-<br /> | Barack Obama<br /> | 54.9%<br /> | 56.3%<br /> | 57.9%<br /> | 60.3%<br /> |-<br /> | Hilary Clinton<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.7%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> | 1.8%<br /> |-<br /> | '''Democrat Total'''<br /> | '''56.6%'''<br /> | '''58.0%'''<br /> | '''59.7%'''<br /> | '''62.1%'''<br /> |}<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> (Source: [http://www.willhill.com William Hill], [http://www.ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes])</div>

Ferret