2010 House Elections
From Conservapedia
The Republicans in fall 2009 appear to be in much better shape than in 2008. Beginning in June 2009, support for Republican candidates has ranged from 41% to 44%, while support for Democrats ranged from 36% to 40%. One year ago during the presidential campaign, support for the two parties was strikingly different. Throughout the summer of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates was strong, ranging from 45% to 48%. Republican trailed badly at this point in 2008 ranging from 34% to 37%.[1]
2009 Election
- New York's 23rd congressional district - open seat:
After four-term Republican Congressman John McHugh became Obama's Secretary of the Army, a special election was called for his seat in a district in upstate New York. The GOP nominated State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a liberal Republican who is pro-choice regarding abortion, supports same-sex marriage, endorsed cap and trade, and endorsed Obama's economic stimulus package. Scozzafava has received the endorsement of the Working Families Party, which is connected to ACORN. [2] She withdrew in October after polls showed her trailing conservative third party candidate Doug Hoffman, a military veteran and businessman. Democrats nominated attorney Bill Owens. The district supported Obama by 5-points in 2008. The Sienna poll released Oct. 15 found Democrat Owens pulling into the lead with 33% (a gain of 5), followed by Scozzafava at 29% (a loss of 6) and Hoffman at 23% (a gain of 7).[3]
The three way race attracted national attention, with the GOP split down the middle. Most conservatives supported Hoffman. Polls in late October show support for liberal Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava's is fast evaporating, as independents move to the Conservative candidate Hoffman and Republicans remain divided. Democrat Bill Owens initially won by a 49%-45% margin, however a recount took place after suspected voter fraud (Hoffman received approximately 0 votes in four counties) a recount took place that narrowed Owens lead to 48.7%-46.4%..
By forcing the Republican candidate out of the race for being too liberal, conservatives scored a major triumph that may lead to further efforts to remove the handful of moderate Republicans who still hold office in the Northeast. Whether the purge will extend to other parts of the country is the question. "The conservative movement is alive, well, kicking hindquarters and taking names. And if you don't measure up, look out," advised party strategist Mark McKinnon. Already, conservative activists have zeroed in on the 2010 race for Florida's open Senate seat, in which the Republican party campaign committee has endorsed moderate Gov. Charlie Crist but the more conservative Marco Rubio, a former state House speaker, is mounting a strong challenge. "If I were Charlie Crist in Florida, what's happening in New York 23 would make me extremely nervous," GOP strategist Todd Harris said. "A lot of the establishment Republicans underestimated the grass-roots anger across the country about spending and the expansion of the federal government. The anger is boiling over now, but a lot of the seeds of discontent were planted over the last five to six years."[4]
2010 elections
Alabama
- Bobby Bright (D) of Alabama's 2nd congressional district:
Freshman Democrat Bobby Bright was elected by a narrow 50%-49% margin. In contrast McCain defeated Obama 63%-36% in the 2nd district in the 2008 Presidential Election. A factor working against Bright is that without Obama on the ballot, there will not be as heavy African American turnout (the 2nd district is 30% black) as there was in 2008. Bobby Bright has bucked his liberal leadership on almost every issue, which may make it difficult for Republicans to compare him with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Republicans have recruited Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby [5]. Congressman Bright has already raised $440,000 in preparation for a tough reelection campaign.
- Mike Rogers (R) of Alabama’s 3rd congressional district:
Four-term Congressman Mike Rogers was reelected in 2008 by 7%, down from 21 points in 2006. However, the race in 2010 leans Republican. It has a strong base of social conservatives, and McCain defeated Obama in the district with 56 percent of the vote. Democrat Joshua Segall will likely seek a rematch. Rogers has $262,000 in cash on hand, compared to $67,000 for Segall.
- Parker Griffith (D) of Alabama’s 5th congressional district:
Parker Griffith was elected to the House of Representatives with 51 percent of the vote in 2008, while McCain received 61 percent. Businessman Les Phillip and Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks have announced they will seek the Republican nomination in 2010.
Alaska
- Don Young (R) of Alaska’s at-large district:
36-year House veteran Don Young has faced recent ethic charges and won a close 51%-45% victory in 2008, and may be a target from Democrats in 2010. However, no prominent Democrats have showed any interest in running. Former governor Sarah Palin is a long-shot primary challenger.
Arizona
- Ann Kirkpatrick (D) of Arizona’s 1st congressional district:
Freshman Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick represents the Republican-leaning 1st district of Arizona. Possible Republican candidates include State Representative Bill Konopnicki and Flagstaff dentist Paul Gosar.
- John Shadegg (R) of Arizona’s 3rd district:
Eight-term Republican John Shadegg flirted with the idea of retirement in 2008, however would go to be reelected with 54% of the vote. Furthermore, he has announced his candidacy for reelection in 2010. Democrats hope to make the race competitive, although the district easily went Republican in the 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections. CQ politics rates the race “Republican favored.”
- Harry Mitchell (D) of Arizona's 5th congressional district:
Elected in 2006, Congressman Harry Mitchell will be one of national Republicans top targets in 2010. Although Mitchell was successful in increasing his winning margin from 4 points in 2006 to 10 points in 2008. Several Republicans have announced interest in running, including State Representative David Schweikert, former State Rep. Susan Bitter Smith, and Venture capitalist Jim Ward. The 5th district mostly represents suburban Phoenix, and gave McCain a 52%-47% victory in the presidential election.
- Gabrielle Giffords (D) of Arizona's 8th congressional district:
Democrat Gabrielle Giffords won two strong victories in 2006 and 2008, yet her district supported McCain over Obama 52%-47%. Her lead Republican opponent is U.S. Marine Corps combat veteran Jesse Kelly.
Arkansas
- Marion Berry (D) of Arkansas' 1st congressional district:
Democratic Representative Marion Berry represents an increasingly Republican district (they voted for Al Gore in 2000, but went for John McCain by 21-percentage points in 2008.) [6] Army veteran and Craighead County GOP co-chair Rick Crawford is seeking to challenge Berry in 2010.
- Vic Snyder (D) of Arkansas' 2nd congressional district:
Democrat Vic Snyder may be vulnerable in 2010 in Arkansas' conservative-leaning 2nd district. Despite going unchallenged in 2008, Republicans have recruited a strong candidate in former United States Attorney Tim Griffin.
California
- Dan Lungren (R) of California's 3rd congressional district:
Democrats are encouraged that Congressman Lungren's seat may become competitive after his margin of victory shrank from 22% in 2006 to 5 points in 2008. However, Congressman Lungren's name recognition (he served two terms as state Attorney General) and his fundraising lead makes him the favorite. Announced Democrat candidates include city councilman Gary Davis, director of the Sacramento Municipal Utility Bill Slaton, and physician Ami Bera. Obama won the district by a 49%-48% margin.
- Jerry McNerney (D) of California's 11th congressional district:
Congressman McNerney won two fairly comfortable victories in 2006 and 2008. Although CQ politics ranks the 11th district as having a 1-point Republican advantage. Businessmen Brad Goehring and Jon Del Arroz are preparing to run against McNerney.
- David Dreier (R) of California's 26th congressional district:
National Democrats may target powerful House Republican David Dreier (ranking member of the Rules Committee) after Obama won the 26th district by 4% in 2008, although that same year Congressman Dreier was reelected by a comfortable 13 points. Magazine company owner Russ Warner, who lost to Dreier in 2008, is seeking a rematch.
- Ken Calvert (R) of California's 44th congressional district:
Nine-term Congressman Ken Calvert was reelected with 51% of the vote in 2008, the first time he had any series competition. In 2010, Commercial real estate broker Chris Riggs will challenge Calvert in a Republican primary, and Rialto Education Association President Bill Hedrick has announced his candidacy as a Democrat.
- Mary Bono Mack (R) of California's 45th congressional district:
Moderate Republican Mary Bono Mack, representing a swing district may face a tough reelection in 2010. Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet, who is openly gay, will seek the Democratic nomination.
- Loretta Sanchez (D) of California's 47th congressional district:
"Blue Dog" Loretta Sanchez comes from a heavily Democratic district (although they narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004). State Assemblyman Van Tran, a Vietnamese-American who has announced his candidacy, could appeal to the significant percentage of Asian-Americans in the district, and is a formidable Republican opponent.
- John Campbell (R) of California's 48th congressional district:
Republican John Campbell, easily elected to three terms in Congress, may be a target from Democrats after Obama won the 48th district 49%-48%. However, it remains a Republican stronghold and Campbell is favored to win reelection. Democrat City Councilwoman Beth Krom is preparing for a campaign.
- Brian Bilbray (R) of California's 50th congressional district:
Three-term Congressman Brian Bilbray, a pro-choice moderate Republican who represents a San Diego-area district, was reelected by 5% in 2008. Democrats have recruited Dave Roberts, a city councilman with military experience to run. Other possible candidates include attorney Tracy Emblem and ex-prosecutor Nick Leibham. Given the 50th districts conservative-leanings, CQ Politics have ranked the race "Republican Favored."
- Bob Filner (D) of California's 51th congressional district:
California's most Southern district, along the Mexican border from San Diego's suburbs to the Arizona state line. Incumbent Filner, first elected in 1992 and re-elected in 2008 with 73% of the vote, [7] will face Republican and decorated war hero Nick Popaditch.
Colorado
- Betsy Markey (D) of Colorado's 4th congressional district:
Betsy Markey, elected by an impressive 56%-44% margin in 2008, comes from a Republican-leaning district and could face a tough reelection in 2010. Several Republicans have expressed interest in running, including Colorado House Minority Whip Cory Gardner, Tom Lucero from the University of Colorado, and city councilman Diggs Brown. Markey has raised $609,000 in what is expected to be a competitive race.
Connecticut
- Jim Himes (D) of Connecticut's 4th congressional district:
In 2008 Jim Himes ousted liberal Republican Christopher Shays by a 51%-48% margin. Although Republicans may target his seat in 2010, they have had difficulty recruiting a formidable opponent. State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney has announced he will not run.
Delaware
- Delaware's at-large district - open seat:
Republican eight-term Congressman Michael Castle has held statewide office in Delaware for 30 years, and has announced he will opt out of reelection in the House to run for the United States Senate. Democrats hope to gain his seat, former lieutenant governor John Carney, who unsuccessfully sought the Democrat nomination for governor in 2008, has announced his candidacy.
Florida
- Alan Grayson (D) of Florida's 8th congressional district:
Alan Grayson, a wealthy lawyer who spent over $2.6 million in personal funds to win his 2008 congressional campaign, is considered by conservatives too liberal for Florida's 8th district. Grayson has received national ridicule after he introduced legislation called the Paid Vacation Act, which would have the federal government give every family a weeks worth of paid vacation, saying "There’s a reason why Disney World is the happiest place on Earth: The people who go there are on vacation. Honestly, as much as I appreciate this job and as much as I enjoy it, the best days of my life are and always have been the days I’m on vacation." [8] Additionally, Grayson caused controversy when he said that the Republican health care plan is to "Die Quickly." [9]
Real estate developer Armando Gutierrez Jr. is seeking the Republican nomination. [10]
- Florida's 12th congressional district - open seat:
Adam Putnam, considered a rising star in the House Republican leadership, will not seek a sixth term in Congress and instead run for Florida Agriculture Commissioner. Although the district has conservative-leanings, the seat is not guaranteed to stay Republican. Lori Edwards, the supervisor of elections in Polk County, is a Democrat contender, while Republicans have rallied behind former State Representative Dennis Ross.
- Suzanne Kosmas (D) of Florida's 24th congressional district:
Suzanne Kosmas defeated three-term Republican Tom Feeney in 2008 by 57%. However, her victory is in large part because Feeney was tainted with his connections to Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff and 2008 was a Democratic sweep year, meaning Kosmas isn't necessarily favored to win in 2010, in a district that the Cook Partisan Voting Index gives a 4-point advantage for Republicans. Announced Republican candidates include State Representatives Dorothy Hukill and Sandy Adams, and Winter Park city commissioner Karen Diebel.
Georgia
- Jim Marshall (D) of Georgia's 8th congressional district:
Blue Dog Jim Marshall was one of the few incumbent Democrats who faced a tough reelection battle in the anti-GOP 2006 midterm elections. Marshall was reelected by a 51%-49% margin over former Congressman Mac Collins. In a district that McCain won with 56% of the vote and with recent voter outrage over government spending and the deficit being aimed at Democrats, Marshall may face a more difficult reelection in 2010.
- John Barrow (D) of Georgia's 12th congressional district:
John Barrow, elected in 2004, may be less vulnerable than other southern Democrats. His district is two-fifths African American and favored Obama by 6%. However, Republicans are targeting his seat. Army veteran Wayne Mosley is seeking the Republican nomination.
Idaho
- Walt Minnick (D) of Idaho's 1st congressional district:
Minnick is a Democratic Representative from a conservative leaning district. He was elected in 2008 with 51% of the vote, compared to 62% that McCain received. Republicans have already tied Minnick to unpopular House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrat controlled Congress. Former Marine Corps Major Vaughn Ward has announced his candidacy. Other potential Republicans include Idaho House Majority Leader Ken Roberts, State Representative Raul Labrador and Attorney General Lawrence Wasden.
Illinois
- Illinois' 10th congressional district - open seat:
Five-term Republican Congressman Mark Kirk has announced he will opt out of reelection in the House and instead will pursue a campaign for the United States Senate. Although his move pleased Senate Republicans, it may be difficult for House Republicans to hold onto a seat in a Democratic-leaning district that covers suburban Chicago. Democrats who hope to take the seat include State Representative Julie Hamos, businessman Dan Seals (who Kirk defeated in 2006 and 2008), and attorney Elliot Richardson. Announced Republican candidates include State Representative Elizabeth Coulson, and attorney Bill Cadigan.
- Debbie Halvorson (D) of Illinois' 11th congressional district:
Freshman Democrat Debbie Halvorson represents the 11th district of Illinois, which voted for Obama in 2008 over McCain 53%-45%, a much smaller margin than other districts in his home state, and went for George W. Bush in 2004. Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran Adam Kinzinger will seek the seat in 2010, and is supported by the Republican establishment.
- Bill Froster (D) of Illinois' 14th congressional district:
Two-term Democrat Bill Froster represents a district that was once held by former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert. Even so, the district has Republican leanings. Hastert's son, attorney Ethan Hastert, is considering running.
Indiana
- Baron Hill (D) of Indiana's 9th congressional district:
Blue Dog Democrat Baron Hill was reelected with 58% of the vote in 2008, the first time he had an easy election in his 8-years in the House. A conservative district that supported George W. Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008, he will probably face a tough opponent in 2010. Announced Republican candidates include Todd Young, an attorney and former aide to Senator Richard Lugar, and real estate investor Travis Hankins. Hill caused controversy when he told his constituents at a health care town hall after a woman asked why she can't record the event, "This is my town hall meeting for you. And you’re not going to tell me how to run my congressional office." [11] Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele says he will target him for defeat.
Iowa
- Leonard Boswell (D) of Iowa's 3rd congressional district:
Seven-term Congressman Leonard Boswell was reelected in 2008 by 14% in Iowa's swing 3rd district (it voted for Al Gore in 2000, George W. Bush in 2004, and Obama in 2008). However, Republicans are trying to make a comeback in 2010. Former state Republican Party chairman Michael Mahaffey is openly considering running.
- Tom Latham (R) of Iowa's 4th congressional district:
Democrats hoped that with a strong challenger eight-term Congressman Tom Latham would be defeated by a Democratic sweep in 2008, instead he was reelected by an impressive 21-percentage points. Voters in the 4th district - which includes Iowa State University - favored Obama over McCain by 7 points, and Democrats are searching for a strong congressional candidate in 2010. But as of now Latham is considered favored to win.
Kansas
- Lynn Jenkins (R) of Kansas' 2nd congressional district:
State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins defeated one-term Congressman Nancy Boyda in 2008 by a 51%-46% margin, making her one of the few incumbent Democrats to lose reelection in 2008. Boyda has announced she will not seek a rematch, and instead took an appointed position as deputy assistant secretary of defense for manpower and personnel at the Pentagon. Democrats may target Jenkins' seat, but they have yet to recruit a strong challenger.
Louisiana
- Joseph Cao (R) of Louisiana's 2nd congressional district:
The GOP seat at greatest risk is held by Joseph Cao (pronounced Gow), who defeated nine-term Democrat Congressman William J. Jefferson in a 2008 runoff election by a 49%-47% margin, after Jefferson had been indicted on federal charges of bribery and other corrupt acts. The district covers almost all of urban New Orleans and was ranked of having a 25 point advantage for Democrats by the Cook Partisan Voting Index. State Rep. Cedric Richmond has announced his candidacy. When asked about his reelection, Cao said that political experts were proved wrong in 2008 and "I'm sure we'll prove them wrong again." [12]
- Louisiana's 3rd congressional district - open seat:
Charlie Melancon, the lone Democratic Representative from Louisiana, has announced his candidacy for the United States Senate and will not run for a fourth term in Congress. Republicans see this a pickup opportunity in a district that McCain won with 61 percent of the vote. Potential Republican candidates include former Speaker of the Louisiana House of Representatives Hunt Downer, State Representative Nickie Monica, Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser, St. John Parish President Bill Hubbard; and Lafourche Parish President Charlotte Randolph. Democrat candidates include State Reps. Fred Mills, Damon Baldone and Gary Smith, and attorney Ravi Sangisetty.
- John Fleming (R) of Louisiana's 2nd congressional district:
Republican John Fleming was elected to the House in 2008 by 350 votes - the closest congressional election that year. Although the district has a strong base of conservatives (McCain won the district by 19%) Democrats may target Fleming because of his close victory. They have so far been in unsuccessful in recruiting a candidate.
Maryland
- Frank Kratovil (D) of Maryland's 1st congressional district:
Frank Kratovil was elected in Maryland's strongly conservative 1st district by less than 1 percentage point in 2008, representing much of eastern Maryland. This may be one of the Democrats most difficult seats to hold. McCain won the 1st district by 18%, while Obama won statewide by 25 points. State Senator Andy Harris is expected to seek a rematch in 2010, and has raised $210,000 for a potential campaign. State Senator E.J. Pipkin may also run. A November 2009 Tarrance Group poll has Harris leading Kratovil by a 52%-39% margin. [13]
Michigan
- Mark Schauer (D) of Michigan's 7th congressional district:
Mark Schauer was narrowly elected to the House in 2008 by a 49%-46% margin after riding on a national wave for Democrats. His 2008 Republican opponent Tim Walberg has announced he will seek a rematch. Republicans have already began airing radio ads targeting Schauer, saying he's too liberal for the 7th district and criticizing him for voting for the $787 billion economic stimulus package.
- Gary Peters (D) of Michigan's 9th congressional district:
Gary Peters, elected in 2008, is a target from Republicans. Paul Welday, an aide to former Congressman Joe Knollenberg, will seek the Republican nomination. State Representative and military veteran Andrew Raczkowski will also run. Michigan's economy is the worst in the nation and Peters reelection campaign is expected to be referendum on President Obama's economic stimulus package, which Congressman Peters strongly supported.
- Thaddeus McCotter (R) of Michigan's 11th congressional district:
Thaddeus McCotter, chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee, won a 51% victory in 2008 against an underfunded opponent. For 2010, Democrats suffered a blow when Michigan House Speaker Andy Dillon and State Senator Glenn Anderson announced they will not run.
Minnesota
- Tim Walz (D) of Minnesota's 1st congressional district:
Tim Walz, a two-term Democrat Representative from a swing district (they went for George W. Bush in 2004 with 51% of the vote, and for Obama by the same margin in 2008) could face a tough reelection in 2010. The National Republican Congressional Committee has said he votes with Nancy Pelosi lockstep and will target him.
- Erik Paulsen (R) of Minnesota's 3rd congressional district:
Republican Erik Paulsen was elected to Congress in 2008 by 7%, while Democrat Obama won the district by 6 points in the presidential election. Democratic State Senator Terri Bonoff is running for the seat in 2010.
- Michele Bachmann (R) of Minnesota's 6th congressional district:
Outspoken conservative Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (elected in 2006 and reelected in 2008) may be liberals number one target in 2010. Alex Isenstadt of Politico wrote "Ask Democratic officials in the state about Bachmann, and they can barely contain their anger." [14] Several Democrats have announced interest in running, including Minnesota Senate Majority Whip Tarryl Clark and former Minnesota Secretary of State Elwyn Tinklenberg. Bachmann has raised over $600,000 for her reelection, not much more than her Democratic opponents.
Mississippi
- Travis Childers (D) of Mississippi's 1st congressional district:
Travis Childers is a Democratic Representative from a district that easily went for McCain in 2008 by 25-percentage points. The National Republican Congressional Committee has listed Childers as one of 70 targets in 2010. [15]
Missouri
- Ike Skelton (D) of Missouri's 4th congressional district:
It is almost certain that 34-year Congressman Ike Skelton will face a tough reelection battle in 2010. State Senator Bill Stouffer and former State Representative Vicky Hartzler have announced they will seek the Republican nomination. After years with a centrist image he has most recently supported his liberal leadership by supporting the economic stimulus package, which may alienate his constituents in the conservative 4th district.
- Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) of Missouri's 9th congressional district:
Luetkemeyer was elected to the House of Representatives by a close 3-percentage points in 2008, which means she may be a target from Democrats in 2010.
Nebraska
- Lee Terry (R) of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district:
Six-term Congressman Lee Terry comes from a district that Obama won by a 50%-49% margin. Democrats see him as vulnerable and are targeting him with State Senator Tom White. Lee Terry is a member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, and a strong advocate of corn-based ethanol and rural based solutions to energy prices.
Nevada
- Dean Heller (R) of Nevada's 2nd congressional district:
Two term Congressman Dean Heller has announced he will not challenge Senator Harry Reid in 2010 and instead run for reelection in the House. In 2008 Heller increased his lead from 5 points to 10. Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg announced she would run in 2010, but dropped out in July. Heller's cash-on-hand is currently $255,000.
- Dina Titus (D) of Nevada's 3rd congressional district:
Titus unseated three-term Republican Jon Porter in 2008. Her 47% victory will make it likely Republicans will put up a strong challenger in 2010. Representing portions of Las Vegas, the district has been hit hard with foreclosures, job losses, and lack of tourism. Whether Titus is reelected will probably be decided over President Obama and the Democratic majority's handling of the economy.
New Hampshire
- Carol Shea-Porter (D) of New Hampshire's 1st congressional district:
After being elected in a political upset in 2006, Carol Shea-Porter was heavily targeted by Republicans in 2008, but won by a 52%-46% margin. She still faced a tough reelection campaign in a Democratic sweep year. Republicans have recruited a strong candidate in 2010, Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta. Additionally, many feel that Shea-Porter is too liberal for the swing district.
- New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district - open seat:
Democratic Representative Paul Hodes has announced he will not seek a third term in the House and run for the United States Senate. After Obama won a 13-point victory in the 2nd district, Democrats as of now have the edge to keep the seat. Lobbyist Ann McLane Kuster will seek the Democratic nomination; party insider Katrina Swett, who lost to bass in 2002, may try again. Radio talk show host Jennifer Horn may run as a Republican. Long-term Republican Congressman Charles Bass is also a possibility.
New Jersey
- John Adler (D) of New Jersey's 3rd congressional district:
Democrat John Adler is expected to face a tough reelection battle in 2010. Running in 2008 he had served 17 years as a well-known State Senator, running in a Democratic year in a district that went for Obama, and outspent his Republican opponent by a 2-1 ratio. All political factors were working for Adler, and his victory was a narrow 52%-48% margin. Adler has received additional financial aide from the National Democratic Congressional Committee as they see him as vulnerable. He has $869,000 cash-on-hand for his reelection.
- Leonard Lance (R) of New Jersey's 7th congressional district:
A moderate Republican, Lance was reelected by eight% in 2008. Regardless, the district supported Obama 50%-49%. Democrats have not recruited a top-tier candidate.
New Mexico
- Martin Heinrich (D) of New Mexico's 1st congressional district:
Martin Heinrich was elected by a comfortable 56%-44% margin in 2008 and is President of the Freshman House Democrats. Still, he is expected to face serious competition in 2010. Former Albuquerque Hispanic Chamber of Commerce President Jon Barela is a declared Republican candidate. Heinrich has raised nearly $300,000 for his reelection campaign.
- Harry Teague (D) of New Mexico's 2nd congressional district:
Although a member of the Blue Dog Coalition, Harry Teague has voted with his fellow Democrats 87% of the time and has been criticized for voting for the economic stimulus package and cap and trade. Cap and trade would cap carbon emissions and tax industries that exceed the cap as a way to reduce global warming; it is highly unpopular in districts where jobs rely on oil, gas or coal production. NM2 is one of the largest oil and gas producing areas in the country, and Teague has faced angry crowds back home ever since voting yes. He will face Republican Steve Pearce, who held the seat for three terms before giving it up to run unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2008. In 2008 McCain edged out Obama in the district 50%-49%. Pearce now is favored.
New York
- Timothy Bishop (D) of New York's 1st congressional district:
Four-term Congressman Timothy Bishop may be vulnerable in 2010 with voter unrest in Long Island over government spending. Conservative business entrepreneur Randy Altschuler could easily self-finance his campaign as he seeks the Republican nomination. The district narrowly went for Obama by a 51%-48% margin.
- Charlie Rangel (D) of New York's 15th congressional district:
38-year House veteran Charlie Rangel's ethics have come under fire after failing to report $660,000 in income and not paying taxes on a beach rental property in the Dominican Republic and in multiple rent-subsidized apartments in New York City. Several Democrats are challenging Rangel in a primary, including New York City Councilwoman Inez Dickens, Councilman Robert Jackson, and state Assemblymen Adriano Espaillat, Keith Wright, and Adam Clayton Powell IV. Obama won the district with 93% of the vote and was ranked by the Cook Partisan Voting Index as the second most liberal district in the country.
- John Hall (D) of New York's 19th congressional district:
Hall unseated six-term Congresswoman Sue Kelly in 2006, and Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate in 2008. In 2010 however, Republicans have a strong candidate in Assemblyman Greg Ball. The district favored Obama by 3-percentage points in 2008.
- Scott Murphy (D) of New York's 20th congressional district:
Scott Murphy was elected by 0.4% of the vote in a special election in 2009, down from the 23-point victory Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand received in 2008. Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco (who lost to Murphy in 2009) may seek a rematch.
- Michael Arcuri (D) of New York's 24th congressional district:
Michael Arcuri (elected in 2006) faced a surprisingly close reelection in 2008, winning by a 52%-48% margin. As a result Republicans will probably target him in 2010. Arcuri is a member of the "Blue Dog" Democrats.
- Christopher Lee (R) of New York's 26th congressional district:
Christopher Lee is one of just 3 Republican Congressman out of 29 from New York State. Elected in 2008, he enjoys a solid Republican base from a district that represents the suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester. Still, it's unlikely Lee will get a free pass for his first reelection.
- Eric Massa (D) of New York's 29th congressional district:
Freshman Democrat Eric Massa caused controversy in August 2009 when he said on health care, "I will vote adamantly against the interests of my district if I actually think what I am doing is going to be helpful." [16] The district, representing much of rural upstate New York, did support George W. Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008. Republican Corning Mayor Tom Reed has announced that he will take on Massa in 2010.
North Carolina
- Larry Kissell (D) of North Carolina's 8th congressional district:
Larry Kissell defeated five-term Republican Robin Hayes in 2008, and Kissell will be a target from Republicans in 2010. Hayes may seek a rematch. Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory may also run. The district voted for Obama 52%-47% in 2008.
- Heath Shuler (D) of North Carolina's 11th congressional district:
The 11th districts Republican-leanings was evident in 2008 when McCain edged out Obama 52%-47%. Schuler was elected in 2006 and reelected in 2008 against a weak Republican opponent. Republicans have laid the groundwork to compare Shuler to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Possible Republican candidates include State Senator Tom Apodaca, State Representative Charles Thomas, Henderson County District Attorney Jeff Hunt, and Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman.
Ohio
- Steve Driehaus (D) of Ohio's 1st congressional district:
Driehaus’ 2010 re-election will likely be a rematch with former Congressman Steve Chabot. Driehaus benefited in 2008 from heavy turnout for Obama, but will be in a different position for 2010. Chabot has criticized Driehaus’ vote for the expensive economic stimulus package.
- Jean Schmidt (R) of Ohio's 2nd congressional district:
Conservative Jean Schmidt won a 2005 special election by a surprisingly close 52% victory in a Republican district (they supported McCain by 19-points). Furthermore, she won a close reelection in 2006, however won an 8 percentage-point victory in 2008. State Representative Todd Book will challenge Schmidt in 2010.
- Mary Jo Kilroy (D) of Ohio's 15th congressional district:
Kilroy defeated State Senator Steve Stivers by a 46%-45% margin. Stivers will seek a rematch in 2010 and the race is almost guaranteed to be competitive.
- John Boccieri (D) of Ohio's 16th congressional district:
John Boccieri won a strong 55% victory in 2008, despite McCain edging out Obama 50%-48%. Boccieri has gained criticism for voting for the cap and trade climate legislation, which would have hit Ohio's 16th district with job losses and tax increases, when Ohio has been hit especially hard by the recession. Former football couch and small-town mayor Jim Renacci will seek the Republican nomination in 2010. Boccieri has $463,000 cash-on-hand for his reelection.
- Zack Space (D) of Ohio's 18th congressional district:
Democrat Zack Space was elected to Congress twice by wide margins, despite representing one of the most rural and conservative districts in Ohio. In 2008 his Republican opponent received just 40% of the vote in a two-man race. Republicans plan to put up a more serious challenge in 2010. There is no shortage of announced Republican candidates, including State Senator Bob Gibbs, former State Agriculture Department director Fred Dailey, attorney Jeanette Moll, and businessman Patrick Carlisle.
Oklahoma
- Dan Boren (D) of Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district:
Democrat Boren was reelected by three landslides in 2004, 2006, and 2008. Yet Oklahoma's 2nd district is a Republican stronghold. The National Republican Congressional Committee listed him as one of 70 targets for 2010. Boren is arguably the most conservative Democrat in Congress. He is pro-life, a lifetime member of the National Rifle Association, supports replacing the federal sales taxes with a flat tax, and refused to endorse Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election.
Oregon
- Peter DeFazio (D) of Oregon's 4th congressional district:
Peter DeFazio faced no Republican challenger in 2008, resulting in an 82-percent victory over two third party candidates. Republicans insist 2010 will be different. They've recruited Sid Leiken, Mayor of Springfield, which borders Eugene, the district's largest city. DeFazio may run for Governor instead of reelection.
- Kurt Schrader (D) of Oregon's 5th congressional district:
Businessman Mike Erickson, whom Schrader defeated in 2008, is considering another House bid in 2010.
Pennsylvania
- Kathy Dahlkemper (D) of Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district:
Blue Dog Kathy Dahlkemperwas elected by a narrow 51%-49% margin in 2008 after running as a centrist Democrat. Her seat in 2010 is hardly secure. Republican opponents include businessman Paul L. Huber and attorney Elaine Surma.
- Jason Altmire (D) of Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district:
Altmire, elected in 2006 and reelected in 2008, represents a conservative district. Former football player and sportscaster Lynn Swann may seek the Republican nomination.
- Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district - open seat:
Four-term Congressman Jim Gerlach has announced his candidacy for Governor in 2010, meaning he will not seek reelection in the House. Former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer Doug Pike is expected to win the Democratic nomination and has raised $664,000 in campaign funds. State Representative Curt Schroder is seeking the Republican nomination.
- Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district - open seat:
Two-term Democrat Joe Sestak will opt out reelection and challenge Senator Arlen Specter in a primary. This gives Republicans an opportunity to reclaim the 7th District. Former federal prosecutor Patrick Meehan has announced his candidacy. On the Democratic side State Representative Bryan Lentz is running. Former State Representative Greg Vitali may also run.
- Christopher Carney (D) of Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district:
Democratic Representative Carney represents a district McCain won by-percentage points, meaning he could be vulnerable in his campaign to seek a third term. Announced Republican candidates include Iraqi War veteran Christopher Bain, School Board member Daniel Naylor, and chiropractor David J. Madeira. Businessman Dan Meuser may also run.
- Paul Kanjorski (D) of Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district:
13-term Democrat Congressman Paul Kanjorski faced the toughest reelection of his career in 2008, winning by a 52%-48% margin, despite Obama winning by 57%-42%. Political analysts view 2010 as a toss-up and his seat will likely be the top of Republican targets. Additionally, Kanjorski may face Democratic primary challenge from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien.
- John Murtha (D) Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district:
Controversial Democrat John Murtha has survived reelections through his membership of the Defense Appropriations Committee, and his pursuit for spending earmarks. In 2008 Murtha's Republican opponent, retired Army officer Mark Russell raised an unprecedented $3.5 million, but still lost 58%-42%. Most recently, Murtha has been under federal investigation over his relationship with businesses that received federal contracts. Additionally, his bluntness (he called people in western Pennsylvania "racist" and "rednecks" in 2008) has earned him negative media coverage. Russell has announced he will seek a rematch in 2010.
Rhode Island
- Jim Langevin (D) of Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district:
Given that Obama won Rhode Island's 2nd district with 62 percent of the vote, this race will not have a competitive general election, but Democratic primary. Five-term Congressman Jim Langevin will face a challenge from State Representative Elizabeth Dennigan. Rhode Island currently suffers from a 12% unemployment rate, and Dennigan has attacked Langevin as being weak and ineffective.
South Carolina
- Henry Brown (R) of South Carolina's 1st congressional district:
Henry Brown, a five-term Republican, faced a tough reelection in 2008, winning 52%-48%. Brown, 78, may retire. If not he faces a primary challenger from Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell, son of former Governor Carroll Campbell. For the Democrats, candidates include former State Representative and 2006 nominee for Lieutenant Governor, state Rep. Leonidas E. "Leon" Stavrinakis, former member of the State Housing Finance and Development Authority Robert Burton, and attorney Ashley Cooper.
- Joe Wilson (R) of South Carolina's 2nd congressional district:
Republican Congressman Joe Wilson has become a new target from Democrats in 2010 after he shouted "you lie" during President Obama's joint session of Congress on health care. Since he made national headlines, his reelection campaign has raised over $1,005,021. [17] Democrat Rob Miller, who was defeated by Wilson 54%-46% in 2008, is seeking a rematch.
South Dakota
- Stephanie Herseth (D) of South Dakota's at-large district:
Democrat Representative Stephanie Herseth has high approval ratings and was easily reelected in 2004, 2006, and 2008. She has announced she will not seek the Governorship or United States Senate, and instead run for reelection in 2010. Herseth may be vulnerable if popular two-term South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson runs.
Texas
- Michael McCaul (R) of Texas' 10th congressional district:
Three-term Congressman Michael McCaul was reelected by a comfortable 11-point margin. Businessman Jack McDonald has announced he will challenge McCaul in 2010. He has so far raised $600,000.
- Chet Edwards (D) of Texas' 17th congressional district:
No other Democrat represents a district more conservative than Texas' 17th. It is the home of former President George W. Bush's ranch at Crawford, and supported McCain over Obama by 35-points. In 2008, Edwards was challenged by a weak Republican opponent, video store owner Rob Curnock, and still received a modest 53% of the vote. Republicans believe they can finally oust Edwards in 2010.
- Ciro Rodriguez (D) of Texas' 25th congressional district:
Blue Dog Ciro Rodriguez will receive a primary challenge from Iraq War Veteran Miguel Ortiz. Although most incumbent Congressman easily win their party's nomination, Rodriguez lost the Democratic primary in 2004, and was later elected back to the House in 2006. Republicans have yet to recruit a candidate.
Virginia
- Glenn Nye (D) of Virginia's 2nd congressional district:
Democrat Nye was elected in the swing 2nd district in 2008 by a 52%-47% margin. Without strong turnout for Obama in 2010, Nye may be vulnerable. Republicans are expected to put up a serious challenge. Possible Republican candidates include Navy Reserve captain Ben Loyola, Car salesman Scott Rigell, activist Chuck Smith, party activist Kenny Golden, ex-VA Beach Council member Richard Maddox, businessman and ex-Navy Seal Ed Maulbeck, businessman Jeff McWaters, Army Reserve brigadier general Bert Mizusawa, Mayor William D. Sessoms, Jr., St. Sen. Kenneth W. "Ken" Stolle, City Council member Ron Villanueva, and St. Sen. Frank W. Wagner.
- Tom Perriello (D) of Virginia's 5th congressional district:
Freshman Democrat Perriello was elected with 50% of the vote, and it is almost certain he will face a tough reelection in 2010. Possible Republican candidates include State Senators Robert Hurt and Frank M. Ruff, County Supervisor Kenneth Boyd, and real estate investor Laurence Verga.
- Gerald Connolly (D) of Virginia's 11th congressional district:
First-term Democrat Gerald Connolly represents a Democratic-leaning district that is mostly an affluent of the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington. Connolly defeated businessman Keith Fimian 55%-43% margin. Fimian has announced he will seek a rematch in 2010.
Washington
- Dave Reichert (R) of Washington's 8th congressional district:
Three-term Congressman Dave Reichert won two close victories in 2006 and 2008 against Democrat Darcy Burner. After Obama won the congressional district by 14% in 2008, Democrats are hoping to make the race competitive by recruiting businesswoman Suzan DelBene.
Wisconsin
- Steve Kagen (D) of Wisconsin's 8th congressional district:
Kagen won an open-seat race by 2-percentage points in 2006, and would go on to be reelected by 8-points. Still, Kagen is not considered safe in 2010 in a historically Republican district. Announced challengers include small business owner Reid Ribble and County Supervisor Andy Williams.
references
- ↑ See Rasmusse, "Generic Congressional Ballot," Oct. 13, 2009
- ↑ http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=33619
- ↑ see details
- ↑ Karl Vick and Philip Rucker, "In a war within GOP, the right wins a battle," Washington Post Nov. 1, 2009
- ↑ http://www.martharoby.com/
- ↑ http://campaigndiaries.com/category/ar-01/
- ↑ Decorated, cigar-smoking Marine runs for Congress, KansasCity.com, November 11, 2009
- ↑ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22794.html
- ↑ http://hotair.com/archives/2009/05/21/democrat-visits-disney-world-suddenly-decides-everyone-should-have-paid-vacations/
- ↑ http://gogutierrez.com/
- ↑ http://www.examiner.com/x-13572-RNC-Examiner~y2009m9d10-RNC-Chairman-Steele-blasts-Indiana-congressman-targets-him-for-defeat
- ↑ The Almanac of American Politics, 2010
- ↑ http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/68889-poll-dem-freshman-kratovil-down-by-double-digits
- ↑ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/25928.html#ixzz0R1ertGIx
- ↑ http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0809/The_NRCCs_70_targets.html
- ↑ http://www.washingtontimes.com/weblogs/watercooler/2009/aug/16/video-rep-massa-i-will-vote-against-interests-my-d/
- ↑ http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0909/Joe_Wilson_raises_200K.html
